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Tuesday, 3 January 2017

Events to watch for in 2017

Following on the Financial Times’ list of events that would set the tone for the year, economist Tyler Cowen published his own list of what emerging market watchers should keep an eye on in 2017. The list, similar to the FT’s, keeps an eye on presidential elections in Iran and whether Xi Jinping will overturn political conventions and stay in power for longer. Other things to watch for in 2017 include:

  • How Nigeria copes with its recession;
  • Whether the Democratic Republic of the Congo remains stable;
  • Economic growth in Pakistan (4.7% last year) and Bangladesh (an average of 6% in the last decade).

Cowen also mentioned a number of “sleeper issues,” including Russia-Israel tensions over control of Middle Eastern airspace; economic and institutional recovery in Ukraine; and the potential failure of the Saudi reform process.

Bloomberg weighs in with what it claims are “the most popular investor picks for emerging markets in 2017.” It’s not based on a poll, though, appearing more to be cobbled together from whatever research notes hit some random writer’s inbox before deadline. The top picks: Russia, South Africa, Mexico, Brazil, Chile, India and Indonesia.

As for the biggest issues facing global investors in 2017, the FT suggests they include:

  • Are markets at risk of a Trump disappointment trade?
  • How will Europe and the UK handle Brexit?
  • Will the oil market balance?
  • Are global banks investable once more?
  • Are financial conditions going to be tighter?
  • Will there be more public market listings?
  • Has the EM tantrum got further to run?

If you’re mulling the possible shape of global markets this year, the two pieces are well worth the read.

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