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Monday, 2 January 2017

On the horizon

We’re going to be thinking a lot about 2017 in the days ahead, culminating with our publication early next week with our first-ever CEO Poll, which looks at what some of Egypt’s most high-profile chief executives expect of the new year. With that in mind, we have two international stories worth reading. The Wall Street Journal (paywall) believes a “re-energized USD looms over the rest of the world,” particularly as the prospect of multiple US interest rate hikes in 2017 will “make it more attractive to hold USD-denominated assets, attracting money into the US.” That’s largely bad news for emerging markets, as we’ve argued in the past.

Meanwhile, the Financial Times looks at nine events it thinks will set the tone for 2017 globally, including:

  • Trump’s inauguration (January) and first year in office
  • The UK’s activation of a key article in its journey out of the European Union (March)
  • The battle for Raqqa (first half)
  • French presidential elections — will the far-right rise? (April-May)
  • Will hard lines in Iran shove Hassan Rouhani out the door during this year’s elections (May)
  • The Fed will raise interest rates — multiple times (calendar here), possibly starting as early as 28 January
  • Erdogan seeks absolute power (first half / lifelong quest)
  • Will China’s Communist Party congress scrap this fall what amount to a term limit on the all-powerful President Xi Jinping?
  • Angela Merkel faces a “steep challenge” as she seeks a fourth term in office (September-October)

Egypt’s 2017 holiday calendar is, well, substandard. All of the usual holidays apply, of course, but painfully few of them break in a way that will give us long weekends. And depending on where the lunar calendar falls this year, as many as four of them will fall on Fridays (30 June Revolution, Islamic New Year, Armed Forces Day and the Prophet’s Birthday). Our provisional calendar of 2017 holidays is in the Calendar section (below) and, as usual, at the foot of today’s edition on our website.

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