Sunday, 10 April 2022

PM — Where we stand on Industry 4.0

TL;DR

???? WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TONIGHT

Happy Sunday, ladies and gentlemen. As we expected this morning, the news slowdown exists only in our dreams now, as rising inflation on the back of soaring global commodity prices and fresh FDI set us up for a busy week ahead.

SO, WHEN DO WE EAT? You’ll be breaking your fast at 6:19pm CLT this evening in the capital city, and fajr prayers are at 4:04am.

THE BIG STORIES TODAY

#1- Annual urban inflation rose in March to 10.5% — its highest in nearly three years — from 8.8% in February, as the Russia-Ukraine war’s impact on global commodity markets led to rising food and energy price inflation, according to figures released by statistics agency Capmas today. Monthly inflation was up 2.2%. The rise brings the headline rate above the Central Bank of Egypt’s 7% (±2%) target range.

#2- More FDI afoot: French cement producer Vicat Egypt has submitted a mandatory tender offer to acquire the remaining 42.12% stake in its subsidiary Sinai Cement Company, to bring its total stake in the company to 100%. Vicat is looking to buy 56.06 mn shares of Sinai Cement at EGP 6.74 apiece in a transaction that values the company at around EGP 897.1 mn, the EGX said in a bulletin.

BUDGET WATCH-

The government’s draft social and economic development plan for FY2022-23 is now with the Senate’s financial affairs committee to discuss and prepare a report, Youm7 reports. The Senate will then debate the draft plan — which reportedly includes ramping up public spending to develop education, health, sanitation, transportation — in a plenary session, before it moves on to the House of Representatives.

^^We’ll have more on these and other stories in tomorrow’s edition of EnterpriseAM.

** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

  • The Madbouly government now expects the budget deficit to contract to 6.2% this fiscal year, down from a previous 6.9% target, as the economy absorbs the initial shock of the outbreak of war in Ukraine.
  • Reserves decline as CBE deployed excess liquidity to “calm the markets”: Egypt’s foreign reserves declined last month for the first time since the early days of the covid pandemic as the conflict in Ukraine rattled the global economy, and the central bank “mobilized excess foreign currency reserves to calm the markets during periods of exceptional stress.”
  • ADQ could buy up National Investment Bank’s entire stake in Abu Qir: Abu Dhabi wealth fund ADQ is on course to acquire the National Investment Bank’s entire 21.5% stake in Abu Qir Fertilizers as part of its USD 2 bn investment in Egypt.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Are more Russian attacks expected against eastern and southern Ukraine? The EU’s military committee held an extraordinary meeting to discuss expected aggression by Moscow on Ukrainian cities and Ukraine’s request for more weapons, Bloomberg reports, citing an EU official speaking off the record. The meeting came days after Russia fired a missile against a train station in eastern city of Kramatorsk, killing at least 50 people.

enterprise

*** It’s Inside Industry day — your weekly briefing of all things industrial in Egypt. Inside Industry focuses each Sunday on what it takes to turn Egypt into a manufacturing and export powerhouse, ranging from initial investment and planning to product distribution, through to land allocation to industrial processes, supply chain management, labor, automation and technology, inputs and exports, regulation and policy.

In today’s issue: Industrial automation has made strides in the past few years, fueled by the pandemic’s disruption of work-as-usual and an acceleration in the adoption of advanced technologies like artificial intelligence and robotics. But how is Egypt faring in the transition? Today, we look at where Egypt’s manufacturing industries stand when it comes to automation in comparison to its regional and global peers.

???? CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Companies have just under two weeks to file their first quarterly ESG compliance report: Listed firms and non-bank financial services companies need to submit their first quarterly ESG report by 20 April, the Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) announced last week. The regulator is making it mandatory for corporates to publicly disclose their performance on key environmental, social and governance metrics each year when they submit their annual financial statements, starting 2023. Reach out to Moustafa Taalab at InkankIR, our parent company, if you need some help.

State-backed Rowad 2030 is now accepting applicants between the ages of 22-40 for its masters program in entrepreneurship and Innovation in collaboration with the University of Cambridge and Cairo University. Learn more about the program requirements and application process here.

☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- Don’t let last week’s heat wave fool you: It’s really cold at night. We realized after freezing during sohour this weekend that the sunny days can be deceptive. Tomorrow’s temperature will reach a daytime high of 31°C and a nighttime low of 13°C, our favorite weather app tells us.

???? FOR YOUR COMMUTE

Musk thinks people can live forever, in robot form: Tesla CEO Elon Musk believes that humans will eventually be able to download their brains into robots to preserve their memories and characteristics in another form, he tells Business Insider’s parent company. The technology is a gradual evolution of computer memory as we’ve already “amplified our human brains massively with computers,” he said. Musk isn’t alone: Princeton Neurology Professor Michael S.A. Graziano wrote a WSJ piece in 2019 exploring the same subject. Creating the artificial brain would be relatively straightforward, Graziano said, but the remaining problem is how to build a scanner that doesn’t kill the subject (the people from Upload certainly haven’t figured it out). Musk has already forayed into this space with his brain-chip startup Neuralink, which is currently working to develop “brain-machine interfaces” that can store human memories.

Happy Easter, from Darwin: Two of naturalist Charles Darwins’ notebooks have been mysteriously returned to the Cambridge University Library after going missing for over two decades, the university announced. The 200-year-old manuscripts were found undamaged and wrapped in a pink gift bag in a public space in the library with a note reading “Happy Easter” addressed to the librarian, with no clue whatsoever on who returned them. The notebooks have Darwin’s notes as he mapped his theory of evolution, with one including his iconic “Tree of Life” sketch from 1837 which portrays his theory of natural selections.

Do you know how many calories you’re about to order? UK restaurants now have to disclose calorie counts on menus: A new law has made it compulsory for large restaurants in the UK to show nutrition data for every dish and soft drink on the menu, along with a statement disclosing that “adults need around 2k kcal a day.” The move is part of the UK government’s strategy to tackle obesity, and aims to help people make healthier choices when they’re eating out or ordering takeaway. The law came into effect last week for food businesses with 250 or more employees, and it has since had mixed reactions: Supporters believe it can help them make more informed decisions, while detractors argue labeled menus may raise anxiety among people suffering from eating disorders.

???? ENTERPRISE RECOMMENDS

???? ON THE TUBE TONIGHT-

(all times CLT)

We’re over a week into Ramadan, meaning we have a pretty good grasp of which mosalsalat to keep watching. At the top of that list — and keeping our eyes glued to the screen, tissues in hand — is Faten Amal Harby, a new social-issue drama series starring favorite Nelly Karim as Faten, a civil servant at a real estate registry. The series (which, in some ways, is similar to Faten Hamama’s Oreed Hallan / I Want a Solution) covers issues of partner violence, divorce, and the injustice and hardships Egyptian women face when opting for separation, including guardianship rights. On top of her battle to end her marriage and maintain custody of her young daughters, Faten files a lawsuit against the Personal Status Act in a bid to change a law that — as it stands — may deprive her of her rights and children. The social-issue series renews the real-life debate on controversial amendments to the act, which were shelved by the House of Representatives last year after backlash. Faten Amal Harby is available on Shahid and WatchiT.

It’s a packed day for football with most games across the main European leagues beginning in the afternoon today. In the English Premier League, six teams are already on the pitch as we dispatch: Brentford v West Ham United, Leicester City v Crystal Palace, and Norwich City v Burnley.

But the most important game of all today is the clash between the Premier League’s top two: Manchester City v Liverpool at 5:30pm. With only seven games left in the season after this weekend, the Reds and Citizens’ clash could be a decider for the league’s title, as Pep Guardiola’s team is currently leading by a narrow one-point difference.

Moving to La Liga, Osasuna v Deportivo Alavés is currently ongoing as we dispatch, while other games in the pipeline include Espanyol v Celta de Vigo at 4:15pm, Elche v Real Sociedad at 6:30pm, and Levante v Barcelona at 9pm.

Shifting to Serie A, Lazio beat Genoa 4-1 earlier today, with three games kicking off as we dispatch: Napoli v Fiorentina, Sassuolo v Atalanta, and Venezia v Udinese. More exciting games include Roma v Salernitana at 6pm and Torino v AC Milan at 8:45pm.

????EAT THIS TONIGHT-

Simplicity is the antithesis of Ramadan desserts, but that’s exactly what the doctor ordered with Dara’s Ice Cream’s latest creation: The Eshta Disc, a disc of fresh clotted cream, to spread on your favorite Ramadan dessert staples this month, be it basbousa or konafa. Also on Dara’s menu this month: Their signature honeycomb mango ice cream cake, pistachio and mastic ice cream cake, and rice pudding with your favorite ice cream flavor or caramelized nuts.

???? OUT AND ABOUT-

(all times CLT)

Room New Cairo will be hosting Irtigalia at 9pm, a 2018-founded improvisational comedy group by Ramsi Lehner, which sees sketches suggested live by audience to allow them to have a firsthand experience in comedic live performance.

On the exhibitions front, MadaadMadaad” art exhibition begins today at 8pm at Gallery Khan Almaghraby. The exhibition will showcase work by artist Ahmed Selim, Azza Abouelsoud, Evelyn Ashamallah, Ibrahim Al beridy, and Omar Abdelzaher.

???? UNDER THE LAMPLIGHT-

How strenuous is the battle of overcoming a troubled childhood towards self-innovation? Educated by Tara Westover is a powerful memoir and New York Times bestseller that chronicles a young woman’s escape from her Mormon fundematlist family in Idaho. Lacking any kind of education or any basic aspects of life due to the isolation of her family, her life has been only limited to preparing for the end of the world by stockpiling food and suffering injustice among her older brothers. But Tara knows there’s more to the world, beginning to educate herself enough to enroll at Brigham Young University as a history student.

???? GO WITH THE FLOW

The EGX30 fell 1.8% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 597 mn (38.3% below the 90-day average). Regional investors were net sellers. The index is down 8.8% YTD.

In the green: Egypt Kuwait Holding-EGP (+0.2%), Credit Agricole Egypt (+0.1%) and e-Finance (+0.1%).

In the red: Fawry (-7.1%), Ibnsina Pharma (-5.8%) and Madinet Nasr Housing (-5.8%).

industry

How far along are Egypt’s factories when it comes to automation? Industrial automation — also referred to as Industry 4.0 — has made strides in the past few years, fueled partially by the pandemic’s disruption of work-as-usual and an acceleration in the adoption of advanced technologies like artificial intelligence and robotics. This shift is marked by the integration of cyber-physical systems, which involve automation both on the assembly lines and in the control room. But how is Egypt faring in the transition? Today, we look at where Egypt’s manufacturing sector stands when it comes to automation in comparison to its regional and global peers.

What exactly is Industry 4.0? At the start of the digital era, Industry 2.0 referred to the use of standard assembly lines in manufacturing. Industry 3.0 marked the introduction of automated processes helped by information technology, which still involves human interference to operate and manage. Industry 4.0 is the stealth version, involving minimal to no human interference and a system-wide integration of all equipment, control systems, and data points that is able to operate, collect data and even predict it, independently.

We’re definitely behind: The majority of Egyptian firms are still transitioning or still need to transition from Industry 2.0 to Industry 3.0, a recent report by the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) (pdf) showed. We also ranked 68th — out of 100 countries — and 9th — out of 13 MENA countries — on the “Drivers of Production” tracker, which evaluates the key enablers that position a country to capitalize on industrial automation, in the latest World Economic Forum’s Readiness for the Future of Production Report (pdf), which we note came out in 2018. On the “Ability to Innovate” tracker, we scored a low of 1.9 on a scale of 1 to 10.

We need more robots: The industrial robot density stands at less than 0.2 robots per thousand manufacturing workers in Egypt which is significantly lower than MENA countries like Tunisia, where density is 5x higher, and Turkey, where it’s 10x higher, according to UNIDO.

And we need to ramp up investments on innovation research: Research and development on digital transformation is key in the process of industrial automation, and Egypt’s private sector is lagging on investments in the field. Private firms account for only 3.9% of total R&D (amounting to some EGP 25 bn), according to a 2021 OECD report (pdf). This is a limited contribution when compared to other economies in Africa, such as Morocco (29.9%), Tunisia (18.9%), and South Africa (41.5%) — and far below emerging economies in Asia, such as Malaysia (38.2%) and Vietnam (80.8%), and the OECD, where the average private sector contribution to R&D investment is 62.9%.

This can partially be explained by Egypt specializing in low-medium technology manufacturing, which accounts for around 50% of domestic manufacturing value added, according to UNIDO. This means that these industries — which include petroleum and coke product manufacturers, basic metals, food and beverage, tobacco, rubber and plastics, textiles, wood, and furniture, among others — are not complex or research-intensive and involve products that are relatively easy to mass produce.

And high-tech industries are a minority: The share of high and medium high tech — which include pharma products, electronics, automotives, and aerospace construction — in manufacturing value added (MVA) currently stands at 14%, which is well below the general global trend, and below the 37.3% average of countries in a stage of industrialization similar to Egypt.

Multinationals are leading the automation transition: Multinational companies and large-cap Egyptian firms represent the majority of firms in Egypt that are automating their factories and plants, Polaris Parks General Manager Bassel Shoirah told us, noting that micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) lack the capital and capabilities to make the transition.

Which sectors are in the lead? House appliances, food and beverage, and pharma are among the industries making the shift towards automation, Shoirah says. Also making the shift are cement manufacturers like LaFarge Egypt and Titan Cement Group, and automotive companies like GB Auto.

Who else is adopting automation? Companies in the chemicals sector that handle delicate items and require controlled environments are among those currently adopting automation, Monica Salama, Industrial Development Group’s marketing and communications director told us. Consumer goods giant Procter & Gamble — which manufactures Tide, Ariel, and Pampers — recently teamed up with Schneider Electric to automate its manufacturing lines in the 6th of October Industrial zone.

A little late to the party: Plastics and metals makers, or those in the raw materials sector, are lagging behind on the transition, likely because these industries are tied to market prices that make them less risk averse when it comes to shelling out large investments, Shoirah added.

It should only be up from here: Egypt displayed the highest automation potential in the region among six countries including Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Oman, at 48% — with manufacturing exhibiting 50% automation potential, according to a 2018 McKinsey report (pdf). This was attributed to Egypt having one of the largest absolute and relative workforce footprints, especially in manufacturing, in the region, with 45% of work activities in the sector found to be technically automatable. In financial terms, this amounts to some USD 366.6 bn in wages.

The market is expected to grow in the coming years: The AI market in Egypt is expected to be worth USD 42.7 bn in by 2030, PwC Middle East estimates.The automation and industrial controls market is expected to register a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.8% by 2026, according to McKinsey, which notes that MENA countries could witness increases in technical automation potential of current work activities up to 80% by 2030.

But actual adoption is likely to be much slower, McKinsey says, with the projected adoption for Egypt estimated to be the slowest compared to the other five countries surveyed by the firm.


Your top industrial development stories for the week:

  • Edita expands operations: EGX-listed snackmaker Edita plans to invest EGP 1 bn over the coming three years to expand operations, company chairman Hani Berzi said.
  • PIF to take stakes in Wataniya + Siemens-built power plant: Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund could take stakes in Wataniya Petroleum and the three Siemens-built power plants as part of its proposed USD 10 bn investment in Egypt.
  • Auto parts factory to be established: GAFI has signed an MoU with Japanese auto parts maker Yazaki to establish a EUR 20 mn factory in Fayoum that will export auto parts under freezone rules.
  • East Port Said to get grain packaging factories: The SCZone will sign an agreement with Emirati firm Rosa Grains and local player Roots Commodities to build eight grain packaging factories worth EGP 100 mn each in East Port Said.

???? CALENDAR

OUR CALENDAR NOW APPEARS into two sections:

  • Events with specific dates or months are right here up top
  • Events happening in a quarter or other range of time with no specific date / month appear at the bottom of the calendar.

APRIL

April: Fuel pricing committee meets to decide quarterly fuel prices.

April: Ghazl El Mahalla shares will begin trading on the EGX.

April: A delegation from a major Belgian shipping company will arrive for talks on building an international shipping supply center in Egypt.

14 April (Thursday): European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

18-24 April (Monday-Sunday): World Bank-IMF Spring Meetings, Washington D.C.

20 April (Wednesday): Deadline for listed companies and NBFIs to submit quarterly ESG reports.

Mid-April: Trading on the Egyptian Commodity Exchange to start.

21 April (Thursday): EGX-listed Taaleem will hold an extraordinary general assembly to discuss the mechanism to build and own nonprofit and private universities.

24 April (Sunday): Coptic Easter Sunday (holiday for Coptic Christians).

25 April (Monday): Sham El Nessim.

25 April (Monday): Sinai Liberation Day.

28 April (Thursday): National Holiday in observance of Sham El Nessim.

30 April (Saturday): Deadline for submitting corporate tax returns for companies whose financial year ends 31 December.

30 April (Saturday): Fixed customs exchange rate lifted.

Late April through 15 May: 1Q2022 earnings season

MAY

May: Investment in Logistics Conference, Cairo, Egypt.

1 May (Sunday): Labor Day.

1 May (Sunday): Suez Canal Authority raises tolls for different vessels.

3-4 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

4 May (Wednesday): 3 February (Thursday): Deadline to send in applications for Cultural Property Agreement Implementation projects to the US Embassy in Cairo.

5 May (Thursday): National Holiday in observance of Labor Day.

2 May (Monday): Eid El Fitr (TBC).

15 May (Sunday): Last day for EGX-listed companies to file 1Q2022 earnings

19 May (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

JUNE

5-7 June (Sunday-Tuesday): Africa Health ExCon, Al Manara International Conference Center, Egypt International Exhibitions Center, and the St. Regis Almasa Hotel, New Administrative Capital.

9 June (Thursday): European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

14-15 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

15-18 June (Wednesday-Saturday): St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), St. Petersburg.

16 June (Thursday): End of 2021-2022 academic year for public schools.

23 June (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

27 June-3 July (Monday-Sunday): World University Squash Championships, New Giza.

30 June (Thursday): June 30 Revolution Day, national holiday.

30 June (Thursday): Deadline for bids for National Democratic Party HQ redevelopment contract.

JULY

July: A law governing ins. for seasonal contractors will come into effect.

July: Fuel pricing committee meets to decide quarterly fuel prices.

Early July: Polish President to visit Egypt.

1 July (Friday): FY 2022-2023 begins.

8 July (Friday): Arafat Day.

9-13 July (Saturday-Wednesday): Eid Al Adha, national holiday.

21 July (Thursday): European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

26-27 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

30 July (Saturday): Islamic New Year.

Late July – 14 August: 2Q2022 earnings season.

AUGUST

August: Work to extend the capacity of the Egypt-Sudan electricity interconnection to 600 MW to be completed.

18 August (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

SEPTEMBER

September: Egypt will display its first naval exhibition with the title Naval Power.

September: Central Bank of Egypt’s Innovation and Financial Technology Center to launch incubator for 25 fintech startups.

8 September (Thursday): European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

18 September (Sunday): Deadline for brokerage firms, asset managers and financial advisors to register with the Egyptian Securities Federation.

20-21 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

22 September (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

OCTOBER

October: World Bank and IMF annual meetings in Washington, DC

October: Fuel pricing committee meets to decide quarterly fuel prices.

6 October (Thursday): Armed Forces Day, national holiday.

8 October (Saturday): Prophet Muhammad’s birthday, national holiday.

18-20 October(Tuesday-Thursday): Mediterranean Offshore Conference, Alexandria, Egypt.

27 October (Thursday): European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

Late October – 14 November: 3Q2022 earnings season.

NOVEMBER

November: Cairo Water Week 2022.

1-2 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

3 November (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

4-6 November: The Autotech auto exhibition kicks off at the Cairo International Exhibition and Convention Center.

7-18 November (Monday-Friday): Egypt will host COP27 in Sharm El Sheikh.

21 November-18 December (Monday-Sunday): 2022 Fifa World Cup, Qatar.

13-14 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

15 December (Thursday): European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

DECEMBER

22 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

JANUARY 2023

January EGX-listed companies and non-bank lenders will submit ESG reports for the first time.

January: Fuel pricing committee meets to decide quarterly fuel prices.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

1H2022: Target date for IDH to close its acquisition of 50% of Islamabad Diagnostic Center.

1H2022: e-Finance’s digital healthcare service platform, eHealth, will launch its services.

1H2022: The government will respond to private companies’ bids to build desalination plants.

1H2022: Egypt’s second corporate green bond issuance expected to be announced.

14 March-30 June: The “Escape to Egypt” exhibition at the Coptic Museum, in celebration of its 112th anniversary.

2Q2022: The Sovereign Fund of Egypt will invest in two companies in the financial inclusion and non-banking financial services sectors.

End of 2Q2022: The Financial Regulatory Authority’s new Ins. Act should be approved.

End of 2Q2022: Door for bidding for the contract to redevelop the site of the former National Democratic Party HQ to close.

End of 1H2022: Emirati industrial company M Glory Holding and the Military Production Ministry will begin the mass production of dual fuel pickup trucks that can run on natural gas.

2H2022: The inauguration of the Grand Egyptian Museum.

2H2022: IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forum, Egypt. Date + location TBA.

2H2022: The government will have vaccinated 70% of the population.

3Q2022: Ayady’s consumer financing arm, The Egyptian Company for Consumer Finance Services, to release first financing product.

End of 2022: e-Aswaaq’s tourism platform will complete the roll out of its ticketing and online booking portal across Egypt.

**Note to readers: Some national holidays may appear twice above. Since 2020, Egypt has observed most mid-week holidays on Thursdays regardless of the day on which they fall and may also move those days to Sundays. We distinguish above between the actual holiday and its observance.

Enterprise is a daily publication of Enterprise Ventures LLC, an Egyptian limited liability company (commercial register 83594), and a subsidiary of Inktank Communications. Summaries are intended for guidance only and are provided on an as-is basis; kindly refer to the source article in its original language prior to undertaking any action. Neither Enterprise Ventures nor its staff assume any responsibility or liability for the accuracy of the information contained in this publication, whether in the form of summaries or analysis. © 2022 Enterprise Ventures LLC.

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