PM — Aldar / ADQ acquire 86% of SODIC as MTO ends.
Plus: The UAE is shaking up the workweek

Good afternoon, ladies and gents: We have a brisk news flow to bring you today following the closure of Aldar / ADQ’s mandatory tender offer to acquire SODIC, and more signals that the green economy is going to be occupying a larger place in Egyptian policymaking in 2022 ahead of the COP27 climate summit in November.

THE BIG STORIES TODAY-

Aldar / ADQ’s SODIC takeover is definitely going through: The Aldar-ADQ consortium bidding to acquire SODIC has obtained 85.5% of the company’s shares at the end of the mandatory tender offer, which closed at the end of today’s trading session, Enterprise has learned.

FinMin prepares green stimulus package: The Finance Ministry is working on a package of measures to stimulate the green economy, Vice Minister of Finance Ahmed Kouchouk told a conference today. A program of targeted financial incentives to encourage economic activity that reduces carbon emissions will be announced ahead of budget season in March, he said.

SFE jumping on the green bond bandwagon? We also have news that the Sovereign Fund of Egypt may turn to the debt markets next year and issue green bonds. This comes from fund CEO Ayman Soliman who told the conference that the fund is considering selling the climate-linked securities in collaboration with “partners.”

^^ We’ll have more on these stories in tomorrow’s EnterpriseAM.

Egypt’s foreign currency reserves inched up slightly in November, reaching USD 40.909 bn from USD 40.849 bn in October, according to official figures released today. Reserves have been on the rise since June 2020, getting closer to their pre-covid peak of USD 45.5 bn in February 2020 after dropping almost USD 10 bn on the impact of the pandemic.

** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from this morning’s EnterpriseAM:

• SODIC is getting Emirati owners: SODIC shareholders have so far agreed to sell shares equivalent to a 77.26% stake (275.2 mn shares) in the company to a consortium of real estate giant Aldar Properties and Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund ADQ in a mandatory tender offer.
• US consortium gets EGP 3.5 bn Mogamma revamp contract: A US-UAE consortium signed yesterday a EGP 3.5 bn (c.USD 200 mn) contract to redevelop Tahrir Square’s Mogamma yesterday with the Sovereign Fund of Egypt.
• The tobacco tender is back on: The Industrial Development Authority (IDA) has relaunched a tender for a license to manufacture cigarettes, potentially ending the historical monopoly by state-owned Eastern Company.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Fancy a Monday-midday Friday workweek? Head to the UAE, where workers will enjoy a 4.5-day work week starting January 2022. All government workers will shift from a Friday-Saturday to a Saturday-Sunday weekend, with the last day of the work week ending at 12pm to allow employees to attend Friday prayers. The move comes to align the country’s financial sector with global markets and boost work-life balance among employees, according to the state-owned Emirates News Agency.

We’d love to see this spread: There have been plenty of calls lately for a shortened work week, with research showing that it could increase employees’ happiness, reduce stress and result in fewer sick days off. And while a number of companies have taken up the shorter work week, the UAE is the first government to implement the decision. Here’s to hoping it kickstarts a global trend in the process. (Bloomberg | Reuters | CNBC | The Guardian | AP)

OMICRON WATCH- The new variant may spread fast, but it doesn’t seem to hit as hard: Data coming out of hospitals at the center of South Africa’s latest covid outbreak suggests that while Omicron may be more transmissible than earlier covid variants, it has also resulted in milder cases. Just 2% of covid patients in hospitals in the country’s Gauteng province are on ventilators, compared with 11% during the Delta wave, offering hope to medics and scientists over the severity of the new variant, the Financial Times reports.

And GSK says Omicron is not, in fact, an untreatable super-mutant: Initial research suggests GlaxoSmithKline’s covid-19 antibody treatment is effective against the spike mutations in the Omicron variant, the drugmaker said in a statement today.

The markets are starting to think that perhaps it’s not doomsday after all: MSCI’s broadest Asia Pacific index was on track for its biggest jump in two months as Asian stocks staged a recovery today, after the index fell to its lowest level in a year on Monday, according to Reuters. The Europe-wide Stoxx 600 bounced back to gain 1.8%, largely on the back of a boost for tech stocks, signaling a correction after last week’s Omicron-induced panic selloff. The UK FTSE 100 gained 1.1%.

An extra USD 188 bn for China’s economy didn’t hurt: The rise in Chinese and Hong Kong markets (and Europe-listed mining stocks) was partly down to a second round of easing measures from China’s central bank, which will see USD 188 bn in long-term liquidity released into the economy. The move is meant to shore up China’s recovery amid a recent slowdown in manufacturing, Evergrande-related property-sector wobbles, and covid outbreaks, Reuters reports.

Speaking of which, Evergrande apparently failed to meet another payment deadline: The Chinese real estate giant sailed on by the expiration date of a 30-day grace period on a USD 82.5 mn repayment deadline yesterday, Reuters reports citing informed sources. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, failure to pay could trigger cross-default for the troubled property giant, putting the company at risk of becoming China’s biggest defaulter. The group had warned over the weekend that it couldn’t be certain it would meet its financial obligations.

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CLARIFICATION- In our coverage of the Mogamma development agreement this morning we noted that Alliance Law Firm advised on the transaction. It has since come to our attention that Adsero – Ragy Soliman & Partners provided counsel to the Sovereign Fund of Egypt and Alliance advised to the consortium of US investors. Colliers International conducted the market study to help advise the decision.

???? CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The two-day North Africa Trade Finance Summit kicked off today, bringing together business leaders, people from the financial industry, logistics experts and policymakers to discuss trade finance.

Global Forum for Higher Education and Scientific Research runs tomorrow through to Friday at the St. Regis Al Masa Convention Center.

The Cairo Woodshow kicks off on Thursday at the Cairo International Convention Center

Booster shot registration: The Health Ministry will begin allowing senior citizens with chronic medical conditions, as well as all medical staff, to register for a booster covid-19 vaccine as of next Sunday, 12 December.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

???? TOMORROW’S WEATHER- Tomorrow promises the coldest day of winter so far, with the mercury falling below the 20°C mark for the first time during the day to 19°C, while nighttime lows are at 11°C, our favorite weather app tells us. Meanwhile, we could have a rainy week ahead of us, with nearly every day boasting a chance of rain.

Private equity isn’t quite as lucrative as it claims to be: Far from its heyday in the 1990s, private equity is struggling to outperform equities as covid stimulus inflates the markets and corporate valuations rise, argues New York Times columnist Michelle Celarier. Claims of super-sized returns have made the industry one of the most popular places for institutional players — and increasingly retail investors — to park their money, helping firms to acquire almost USD 850 bn in dry powder. But research shows that returns on PE investments have been on the long-term decline, falling from an estimated 15% two decades ago to just 1-5% over the past 10 years, having never made a complete recovery from the financial crisis in 2008-09.

A lot for a little: Investments in US private equity funds formed between 2006 and 2015 could have been matched by investing in an equity index fund, according to a 2020 research paper out of Oxford’s Saïd Business School. Over the same time, investors shelled out at least USD 230 bn in management fees to PE firms. “The big picture is that they’re getting a lot of money for what they’re doing, and they’re not delivering what they have promised or what they pretend they’re delivering,” Ludovic Phalippou, professor of finance at the Saïd Business School and author of the report, told the NYT.

Gaming the numbers? There’s no way to verify returns from a PE fund until it is liquidated, typically after a 10-year lifespan. In the interim, investors must rely on a fund’s self-reported annual internal rate of return (IRR) figures, which PE critics including Phalippou say is easily gamed for a sunnier outlook. For example, if a 10-year PE fund sells an asset early on in its timeline, the return from the sale will be reflected in the IRR — but investors can’t be sure that the capital gained can be reinvested at the same high rate until the fund liquidates. Borrowing extra liquidity early in a PE fund’s lifetime can also boost annual returns by as much as 3%, according to estimates from investment and advisory firm Cambridge Associates.

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SPACs aren’t dead: SPACs are on course to outnumber traditional IPOs in the US this year, according to Dealogic data picked up by Axios. Some 562 blank-check firms went public on US exchanges between January and November this year, compared to 373 companies that went the normal route. Traditional issuers tended to raise more money though: in total, SPACs raised only USD 3 bn more than normal IPOs, despite significantly outnumbering them.

The year was top-heavy for SPAC issuances, with the first quarter seeing a boom in popularity for the previously-obscure vehicles. Despite the subsequent plunge in the number of blank-check firms going public, traditional IPOs have been unable to catch up, and a recent resurgence has left Axios to conclude that SPACs are “here to stay as a viable IPO alternative.”

But they are coming under a watchful eye: Two high-profile SPACs are now under the investigation of federal regulators in the US, in the latest sign that blank-check firms are still struggling to throw off a slightly shady reputation. Former US President Donald Trump’s Digital World Acquisition Corp. (DWAC), which is set to merge with the company running his new social media venture “Truth Social,” has been asked to share stock trading information and communications with authorities, the company revealed in a regulatory filing (pdf). The news comes days after Trump’s SPAC announced it had raised USD 1 bn from institutional investors. Meanwhile, Churchill Capital Corp IV, which raised USD 4.4 bn in one of the largest SPAC transactions in history when it merged with electric car maker Lucid earlier this year, is being probed over disclosures and forecasts it made while listing, according to the Financial Times.

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What do Omicron, Ethereum and Billie Eilish have in common? They all rank among the words most mispronounced on TV in 2021, not quite rolling off the tongue as newscasters would like them to, according to a list commissioned by language learning app Babbel from the US Captioning Company. (In case you’re wondering, it’s OH-mee-kraan, ih-THEE-ree-um and EYE-lish, standup comedian and Babbel Live teacher Esteban Touma tells Bloomberg).

The Ever Given also got a special mention, with newscasters repeatedly mistaking the name of the ship that got stuck in the Suez Canal in March for Evergreen, the vessel’s owner. Other words that made the list include dog-themed cryptocurrency Dogecoin (DOHJ-coin), Chinese fast fashion retailer and viral trend-setter Shein (SHEE-in), the Korean dessert Dalgona (tal-goh-NAH), popularized by Netflix’s Squid Game, and Cheugy (CHOO-gee), a term used among Gen Z to mock millennials’ outdated aesthetic.

???? ON THE TUBE TONIGHT-

(all times CLT)

A celebrity escape room featuring Middle Eastern stars: Hosted by Sherif Al Fayed, Mohamed Kais and Nancy Eskander, Al Shifra is an OSN Original show that sees two celebrity duos compete in each episode to break out of an escape room. The rooms are an elaborate affair, recreating settings that include a hospital, a zoo, and a disaster-stricken resort. The six episodes feature 24 stars from across the region, with Egyptian representation in the form of Khaled Mansour of SNL Arabia fame.

⚽ Head to your TV at 9pm tonight: Egypt is competing against Algeria in a heated match that will settle our standing in the Arab Cup’s group stage. With both teams already heading into the quarter-finals, the 9pm game will settle which will top the group and which will come in second. The Pharaohs will face either Morocco or one of Jordan, Saudi Arabia or Palestine, which also play their final games tonight.

Group C standings: Morocco (6 points) – Jordan (3 points) – Saudi Arabia (1 point) – Palestine (1 point).

Group D standings: Algeria (6 points) – Egypt (6 points) – Lebanon (0 points) – Sudan (0 points).

Also in the Arab Cup: Morocco plays Saudi Arabia and Jordan faces Palestine, both at 6pm.

The Champions League is back tonight, with half the teams playing their final matches of the group stage.

Group A: There’s little left to play for in this group, after Manchester City secured its place at the top of the group in the previous game, and PSG have locked down second place. RB Leipzig still have a good chance of entering the Europa League and will need to beat City to seal their spot, while Club Brugge need to beat PSG and hope that Leipzig stumble to enter the competition. Both games kick off at 7:45pm.

Standings: Man City (12 points) – PSG (8 points) – RB Leipzig (4 points) – Club Brugge (4 points).

Group B: No one comes close to Liverpool, who are 10 points clear at the top of group having won all five of their games. The race for second place is still wide open: Milan will need to beat Liverpool, while Porto and Atletico Madrid will face each other in the other high-stakes match, both at 10pm.

Standings: Liverpool (15 points) – Porto (5 points) – Milan (4 points) – Atletico Madrid (4 points).

Group C: Ajax are sitting comfortably at the top of the group, and will play Sporting CP which has secured second place. Third-placed Dortmund will enter the Europa League, and play bottom-placed Besiktas tonight. Both games kick off at 10pm.

Standings: Ajax (15 points) – Sporting (9 points) – Dortmund (6 points) – Besiktas (0 points).

Group D: Leaders Real Madrid haven’t quite won the group, and could be knocked from their first place spot in tonight’s match against Inter Milan, which is just two points behind. Nonetheless, both teams have ensured qualification, with Sheriff in a distant third place. The Moldovan team play Shakhtar Donetsk which is bottom of the group. Both matches start at 10pm.

Standings: Real Madrid (12 points) – Inter (10 points) – Sheriff (6 points) – Shakhtar Donetsk (1 point).

???? EAT THIS TONIGHT-

Healthy eating in its tastiest incarnation: Freshii takes healthy food to new levels, with a menu that will have you salivating regardless of your passion for junk food. The healthy eatery offers options for breakfast, lunch or a light dinner, from smoothies, salads and soups to burritos, tacos and bowls. Their soup options come out on top for creativity: they include the winter essential butternut squash soup, a spicy lemongrass offering, and the very filling superfood soup, which incorporates kale, quinoa, broccoli, and cabbage. But the salads and bowls are the real hero for any office worker looking for a delicious healthy fix: Try the teriyaki twist bowl or the cobb salad. Finally, Freshii’s tacos and burritos are good enough that they might just convince you that healthy eating isn’t as hard as you thought. Freshii can be found in Zamalek, Heliopolis, and Sheikh Zayed’s Arkan Plaza.

???? OUT AND ABOUT-

(all times CLT)

Cairo Jazz Club’s Alt Tuesday will see Odqin & Binary Star hit the stage tonight to play their lo-fi and hip-hop tunes. The night starts at 9pm.

Renowned composer, conductor and pianist Omar Khairat is performing at The Marquee in Cairo Festival City on Friday at 9pm.

I Make This Egypt are holding a Christmas Bazaar at Sheikh Zayed’s AIS School on Saturday from 11am to 8pm, featuring handmade and local products by over 100 sellers.

???? UNDER THE LAMPLIGHT-

Time to recalibrate your office’s WFH culture? In Out of Office, published today, Charlie Warzel and Anne Helen Petersen examine the work-from-home phenomenon beyond pandemic panic. The journalist couple have been working and living together out of a country home in Montana since 2017, and use that experience, alongside interviews with workers and managers, to explore how the covid-era WFH experiment could shape the nature of work going forward. The book also takes a timely look at how to go back to the office effectively, as many workplaces struggle to entice their employees back to their desks. The authors never commit to a one-size-fits-all solution, instead offering ideas for each industry and type of worker. The key takeaway for managers is to be flexible and listen to employees, keeping certain values at the heart of the conversation: trust, fairness, flexibility, inclusive workplaces, equity, and work-life balance.

MARKET NEWS-

The EGX has capped daily stock price movement at 5% for Rowad Tourism and Zahraa Maadi Investment & Development for a month starting today, according to two separate but identical statements by the companies to the bourse. The move will limit fluctuations in the two companies’ shares more strictly than the typical 20% margin, and comes following coordination between the Financial Regulatory Authority and the bourse to reduce the risk to traders of sharp price fluctuations within a single trading session, according to the statements. Back in September, the bourse implemented a new mechanism allowing shares to rise and fall by 20% during a single session, up from a previous 10%, in a move designed to improve accuracy, increase trading volumes and boost foreign inflows into Egyptian shares.

MARKET ROUNDUP-

The EGX30 rose 0.2% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 1.77 bn (20.1% above the 90-day average). Foreign investors were net sellers. The index is up 6.4% YTD.

In the green: GB Auto (+6.9%), AMOC (+2.6%) and Qalaa Holdings (+1.5%).

In the red: Speed Medical (-15.8%), Rameda (-6.3%) and Heliopolis Housing (-5.6%).

OUR ANALYST OF THE WEEK- Aly Adel, vice president of research at Beltone Financial (LinkedIn).

My name is Aly Adel and I’ve wanted to be in this field since university days. I was part of a student activity, Stock Market Simulation, and was immediately sucked into the world of valuations and the capital markets. I then joined the CFA Institute Research Challenge, where me and my team ended up taking home the top local prize. In 2015, after graduation, I spent a month as an intern at Pharos and then I went on to do my military service. When I came back, I joined Beltone, and I’ve been there for five years now.

I now cover real estate, healthcare, and a few education stocks. I started off covering the local healthcare sector. I got to experience Ibnsina Pharma’s IPO, travelling to my first ever roadshow and meeting clients abroad. I then started increasing my coverage in healthcare to include regional stocks and also added a few education names. Finally, in 2021 I got the chance to also cover Egypt’s real estate sector.

Real estate is quite different from what I’m used to, but I saw it as a challenge that I would definitely learn from. The sector is going through a very interesting time as the government is trying to make it more stable, while people’s purchasing power is recovering which leads to more sales.

The best part of my job is meeting companies’ CEOs and management teams. You get the chance to see how things operate as well as how these people think and plan for the future when it comes to inflation, demand, etc. You expand your mind and put yourself in the shoes of management, which helps in your coverage. However, when it comes to my family, they sometimes think that since I cover healthcare I can prescribe them meds [laughs], which definitely isn’t the case.

The worst part of my job is that you’re always on call. It can be late at night or during a vacation and an event happens that means you have to drop everything. On the other hand, we’re forced to stay up-to-date with the news all the time, so that’s a good thing.

The absence of roadshows definitely has an impact. My last roadshow was January 2020 and it’s a whole other experience to meet clients face to face and read their body language. Plus, it’s more fun than video calls.

I think roadshows will increase in 2022, compared to 2021. They’ve already come back a bit on a smaller scale, but next year the move will accelerate despite the Omicron variant. People have become more intelligent about lockdowns and how to mitigate new variants, plus fund managers are keen to see their investments on the ground.

My theory of investment is to always look at interesting stories with hidden value. It can sometimes be hard to spot, but some indicators are strong fundamentals and an active management that works to create new value.

Fundamentals are the most important factor I look at before recommending an investment. Sometimes the markets could drive a stock price up because they’re interested in that company at the moment, but without solid fundamentals, the growth won’t be sustainable.

I put a lot of emphasis on experienced management with good corporate governance. When they’re not a one-man-show, the chairman is focused, and they have good communication with investors and analysts, it really does help maintain the success of the company.

How the EGX30 will close at the end of the year still has a lot of question marks. The Omicron variant is causing a lot of uncertainty in the global market. I really do hope the EGX30 manages to be in the green [laughs], but there definitely is doubt.

I think 2022 will definitely be a better year than 2021, but it’s not necessarily the year of Egypt. I think that investors might flock more to blue chip stocks as the local stock market is extremely cheap at the moment. There’s a lot of room for growth and the story for next year is good, bolstered by a pipeline of IPOs and several decisions to better regulate the market, such as in margin trading. This could lead to less volatility in the market, especially in small caps. Meanwhile, the uncertainty from covid is lessening and investors now have a clearer short-to-medium-term perspective.

I’m currently watching The Good Doctor, and I’m excited to watch the new episodes of Money Heist. I agreed to watch them with my friends, which has postponed my viewing experience. I’m worried that I’ll open Facebook and get hit with spoilers [laughs].

I’m not much of a reader, to be honest. I’d rather get my information from documentaries. I love watching anything related to the planet, the animal kingdom, space discovery, or theoretical physics.

In my downtime, I love to listen to music, workout, and dive. I listen to all kinds of music — literally any genre. At one point, I tried to get into music production, but that didn’t work out for me. I also like staying active and I used to play crossfit, but now I go to the gym.

I started taking diving courses a couple of years ago and now I’m allowed to dive up to 30 meters. There’s no better feeling than being suspended and relaxed in the water with no outside distractions. It’s a completely different state of mind.

I stay organized through the reminders on my phone. I like to plan what my day will look like in advance, but I usually shy away from planning out my week. Things come up and the plans always end up changing. It’s important to me to give every aspect of my life the right weight, whether it’s work, being social, or working out.