EnterprisePM — Could an electricity shortage in China bring about another Evergrande-style problem?

It’s all quiet on the local front, ladies and gentlemen, with a dearth of worthwhile stories coming in as of dispatch. We don’t anticipate this will be the case this week (or even today), so enjoy a light issue while you can.

THE BIG STORY TODAY-

#1- Private equity firm Ezdehar plans to reach the first USD 100-120 mn close on its Ezdehar Egypt Mid-Cap Fund II fund by November, founder and Managing Director Emad Barsoum told us, explaining that the second and final close of the fund is expected happen within 1Q2022. The firm hopes to raise a total of USD 160-180 mn after its second close. Among the investors in this first close is Naguib Sawiris who will invest around USD 20 mn, UK’s CDC with USD 25 mn and the European Investment Bank with USD 15 mn. Other potential investors include the Egyptian-American Enterprise Fund, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation.

^^We dive deeper into the story in tomorrow’s EnterpriseAM.

DEBT WATCH- Banque Misr has confirmed that it is in the process of obtaining its largest-ever syndicated loan worth about USD 1 bn in a statement last week. 22 banks from 11 countries, including banks from the US, Europe, Middle East and Asia have signed on to provide the loan, the statement reads. Shahid Law are legal counsel to Banque Misr on the facility.

REMINDERs-

#1- The House of Representatives is reconvening this week after its summer recess, by decree of President Abdel Fattah El Sisi. The House’s first session is scheduled for Saturday, 2 October. The Senate will reconvene next week on Tuesday, 5 October. Look for our tracker of business-related legislation on what could potentially be on the docket this week.

#2- Same-day vaccinations are now a thing from today: Anyone who has not yet registered for vaccination can go to walk-in clinics at youth centers for same-day vaccination starting this morning, with 850 vaccination centers, including 175 for travel vaccination, now operational for pre-scheduled appointments.

** CATCH UP QUICK on the other top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

• Egypt sells USD 3 bn of eurobonds: Last Thursday’s issuance was 3x oversubscribed, with Egypt receiving offers for USD 9 bn on USD-denominated bonds, with 6-, 12-, and 30-year tenors.
• Shell is out of the Western Desert: Cheiron and partner Cairn Energy have acquired Shell’s oil and gas assets in the Western Desert under an agreement in March that could be worth up to USD 926 mn.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD– Germany’s national elections are too close to call, with the elections expected to yield a splintered parliament. Elections for Merkel’s potential successor is a three-horse race between centre-right Christian Democrats’ Armin Laschet, center-left Social Democrats’ Olaf Scholz (Merkel’s Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister)and the Greens’ Annalena Baerbock. If the elections divide the parliament, a three-way coalition is expected to take place though that isn’t the preferred option for Scholz (the front-runner). Reuters has the story.

The Washington Post is warning of the far-right and how they might be inspired to take elections in their own hands or disrupt the proceedings as did Trump supporters on 6 January. It suggests that extremists are unlikely to play a role in swaying the vote but their influence is still too strong than what the polls may have implied.

Who’s next up in the so-called ‘Evergrande contagion’? China’s Evergrande continues to dominate the conversation among market watchers this morning, with the discussion centering on what is the next domino to fall (so, it is all bears today). Goldman Sachs sees other Chinese property developer stocks as being the next to fall, with the Hang Seng Property Index dropping to its lowest in five years earlier this month, Bloomberg reports. Citi sees property lenders and investors as being next, including China Minsheng Banking, Ping An Bank and China Everbright Bank.

Beyond property and property financing, the supply chain industries feeding them are expected to come under risk, including Asian suppliers to China’s developers, including US industries and EU mining firms.

Not helping matters are continued global supply chain and logistics disruptions that have shipping firms sound the alarm. Government intervention might be necessary to solve the global supply chain turmoil, argues Takeshi Hashimoto, president of Mitsui OSK Lines, in an interview with the FT. It’s been a major debate within the industry whether government involvement is necessary, but Hashimoto believes that leaving the crisis in the hands of individual companies that will each take a different approach will cause more turmoil and “an out-of-control situation,” he said. Instead, companies should coordinate with governments to ensure that the much-needed infrastructure is in place. The logistics industry should also plan ahead in a way where investment is somewhat stable and predictable as opposed to pouring in investments at a time of a boom, Hashimoto said.

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Another Chinese crisis as big as Evergrande (the bear clickbait is strong today)? China could be headed for an electricity crisis that could potentially wreak as much havoc on markets as the Evergrande fiasco, according to Bloomberg. Almost half of China’s 23 provinces missed energy intensity targets set by Beijing and are now under pressure to curb power use. “With market attention now laser-focused on Evergrande and Beijing’s unprecedented curbs on the property sector, another major supply-side shock may have been underestimated or even missed,” Nomura Holding analysts said in a note. China’s electricity pressures come as Europe struggles with its own energy crisis on account of natural gas shortages.

Speaking of which, Italy is feeling the bite of gas shortages: Italy’s government has warned that gas prices might increase 40% over the next three months, reports the Financial Times. Last week, Prime Minister Mario Draghi announced a EUR 3 bn package to aid lower income households and small businesses to pay their bills. The plan freezes electricity costs for 3 mn houses, waives fixed charges for some houses and businesses, and reduces VAT on natural gas to 5% instead of up to 22%. The implementation of the plan will take place in 4Q2021, but until then, businesses and families are worried that they might not be able to stay afloat.

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???? CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

White House National Security adviser Jake Sullivan will visit Cairo this week as part of a brief Middle East tour that will take him to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, sources with knowledge of the matter tell Axios.

The deadline to register for the AUC Business School’s Private Equity Diploma is coming up on Tuesday, 28 September.

ITIDA’s DevOpsDays Cairo 2021, will take place on Wednesday, 29 September.

Winter opening hours for shops and restaurants will begin this Thursday, 30 September. Shops and malls will close one hour earlier at 10pm (11pm on Thursdays, Fridays and national holidays) while cafes and restaurants will shutter at midnight rather than 1am. Essential services such as grocery stories, supermarkets and pharmacies are exempt.

The Cairo International Fair opens on Thursday, 30 September at the Cairo International Conference Center. It runs through 8 October.

The Egypt Projects 2021 construction expo also opens on Thursday at the Egypt International Exhibition Center and wraps on Saturday, 2 October.

Dubai’s Expo 2020 opens on Friday, 1 October. The event, which takes place somewhere on the planet once every five years, runs for six months and will be open seven days a week. You can learn more here.

Shipping companies need to send information to the Advance Cargo Information (ACI) system starting 1 October. This includes cargo data and documents such as the commercial invoice and bill of lading, with the paperwork required to be filed at least 48 hours before the goods are shipped.

PSA- Next week is a short workweek. You can expect to have a three-day weekend 7-9 October in observance of Armed Forces Day, which is on 6 October.

A BIT FURTHER OUT- The first phase of the planned electric rail line between Salam City and Tenth of Ramadan City will be inaugurated at the end of October, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said in a cabinet statement. The line, which connects Adly Mansour station to the new administrative capital, will open next month for a three-month trial, Madbouly said.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- Expect daytime highs of 32°C and nighttime lows of 21°C tomorrow, our favorite weather app tells us.

Tesla drivers can now access the Full Self-Driving Beta (FSD Beta) software with a press of a button, hours after Elon Musk announced the rollout on Twitter. The beta version gives access to an “autosteer on city streets” feature which allows the car to self-drive in urban environments — given that the driver stays alert with both hands on the wheel. Only drivers with a high “safety score” will be able to download FSD Beta, with Tesla looking at factors such as hard braking and aggressive turning. Upon release, the non-beta version, FSD, will allow a Tesla to automatically change lanes, navigate on the highway, move into a parking spot, or roll out from a parking spot. It is unclear when the full version will be available to the public.

The move caused controversy over the expanded use of the still unfinished driver-assistance software, according to CNBC. FSD’s safety is coming under question by major names including Jennifer Homendy, the head of the National Transportation Safety Board, who told the Wall Street Journal that the rollout is “premature”. She accused Tesla of conducting testing of the unfinished product with untrained drivers.

Airbus could start building a hydrogen-powered passenger plane some time this decade, the planemaker’s CEO Guillaume Faury said during the second day of Airbus Summit (his talk begins at the 1:51: 17 mark). He says the complex engineering challenges of developing the aircraft can only be tackled with support from the government and regulators. By 2027-28, Airbus would have determined the plausibility of the new hydrogen plane program and whether to invest USD bns in it or not.

Twitter has launched its new “Tips” feature which allows people to send tips, other users on the platform, according to a press release (pdf). Users can opt to turn on Tips which will add a link to their profile with all the ways they can receive payment including popular services such as Venmo, Patreon, GoFundMe, and more. Twitter does not take a cut of the Tips transfers, the release added. Tips also allows people to link their BTC and Ethereum addresses and receive payment through cryptocurrencies. Tips will be rolled out on iOS first before being added to Android over the coming weeks.

Speaking of which, Apple’s iOS 15 has a cure for your clumsiness: Using previously rolled out metrics on the Health app such as walking asymmetry, double support time, step length and walking speed, your iPhone can now assess your overall walking steadiness. After a few days on iOS 15, you’ll get a notification that your walking steadiness is ok, low, or very low, according to this Wall Street Journal review of the feature. While your iPhone can’t warn you before you trip on your laptop charger, it does give you a score for your fall risk over the next 12 months. It also provides advice on how to improve walking steadiness for each case by adding videos of strength- and balance-building exercises which users can follow. If you receive a low or very low walking steadiness notification, Apple suggests you should talk to your doctor.

???? ON THE TUBE TONIGHT-

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⚽ The Egyptian Premier League’s new season will kick off on 25 October following the October international break, the Egyptian Football Association announced on Thursday.

It’s the North London Derby on the Premier League tonight, as Arsenal take on Tottenham at 5:30 pm. These London rivals have been the perennial losers of the top 10 of the Premier League, but their rivalries are a classic. So this is really crowning who’s the worst of the worst.

La Liga this afternoon: Barcelona will be taking on Levante at 4:15 pm, Rayo Vallecano will be playing against Cadiz while Real Sociedad will be facing Elche, both at 6:30 pm, and finally, Real Betis and Getafe will round off the night at 9 pm.

Serie A: Lazio and Roma will be playing against each other at 6 pm, and Napoli and Cagliari at 8:45 pm.

????EAT THIS TONIGHT-

From Lebanon to Sheikh Zayed: Try some Lebanese tonight with Bebabel in Park St in Sheikh Zayed. The new spot boasts traditional Lebanese breakfast in addition to a delicious all-day dining menu with a range of mezzes, salads, and grills. They’re known for their talatas, which weave Spanish tapas with the Lebanese mezzes, where you can order them in threes and choose them to be served either hot or cold. The house specialty: a mafroukit tajen.

???? OUT AND ABOUT-

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Bassist Ahmed Nazmi will take the stage at Cairo Jazz Club in Agouza with a live performance at 9 pm, playing songs from his album Shams.

Ubuntu Art Gallery in Zamalek is launching today an exhibition called Shuffle which will run through 16 October every day from 11 am to 8 pm except Friday. The exhibition will showcase the works of artists Adham Ghareeb, Doaa Fakher, Sarah Mohy-Eldin, Philip Andrasevic, Mohamed Sabry, Mohamed Tanash, Mahmoud Talaat, Mona ElKateb, Maha Massoud and Yousef Sabry.

???? UNDER THE LAMPLIGHT-

Overwork in the age of automation — why does it still happen? Social anthropologist James Suzman’s study titled Work is a look at why we still have the 40-hour week, despite the prevalence of automation technology and AI. The study attempts to analyze the relationship between technology and efficiency through a close examination of cultures that don’t necessarily have the technological benefits that you do, but work way less.

The EGX30 rose less than 0.1% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 1.17 bn (26.1% below the 90-day average). Foreign investors were net sellers. The index is down 1.8% YTD.

In the green: Egypt Kuwait Holding’s EGP shares (+5.2%), Cleopatra Hospital (+3.1%) and Eastern Company (+2.9%).

In the red: Speed Medical (-2.4%), Ibnsina Pharma (-2.1%) and Ezz Steel (-1.7%).

BY THE NUMBERS- Egypt’s gender gap is closing, but not quickly enough: Egypt is generally moving in the right direction working towards gender parity, but progress is slow and in some areas women are becoming less empowered, a report by the World Economic Forum (WEF) indicates. Egypt gained five places in the 2021 edition of the WEF’s annual gender gap report (pdf), ranking 129 out of 156 countries, but falling female participation in the economy and an increase in health inequality shows that there is still much work to be done to close the gender gap.

The Global Gender Gap Index: The index assesses gender-based gaps in four key areas — economic participation, educational attainment, health and survival, and political empowerment — and tracks progress in these areas in different countries over time. For each area, countries are given a score between 0 and 1 (1 being the highest), which are then combined to give the overall score that determines country rankings.

The good: We score highly when it comes to educational attainment, where enrollment at primary, secondary and tertiary levels between Egyptian women and men are almost on a par. There’s still some disparity between the literacy rate, which for women stands at 65.6% compared to 76.5% for men.

Egypt has also made clear progress when it comes to political empowerment: An increase in female parliamentarians helped Egypt to close the political empowerment gap by 6% from the 2020 report, boosting the ranking in the sub-index to 78 from 103 last year.

Keeping this in perspective: Disparity in leadership roles is still strong. Only 27% of Egypt’s parliamentary representatives and 24% of our ministers are women, and we haven’t had a female head of state in modern history, the report notes.

The bad: Women have become less empowered economically. Female participation in the labor force regressed last year, with only 20% of Egyptian women participating in the labor market, compared to 75.2% of men. Women are underrepresented among professional and technical workers, of which they comprise only 33.4% while men count for 66.6%. The situation is even worse at the managerial level, with only 7% of legislators, senior officials and managers being women. This translates into wage and income gaps: the estimated earned income of a woman is currently 22% that of a man, the report tells us.

Women’s health prospects aren’t that different to men, but the data indicates a lack of autonomy in some key areas: There’s essentially parity between women and men when it comes to life expectancy, with both seeing life expectancy of around 62-63 years, the ed-pills24.com tells us. And Egypt’s maternal mortality rate (37 deaths per 100k live births) is well below the 2017 global average of 211. But when it comes to pregnancy termination for a woman’s health, Egypt scores 0.75 out of 0-1 (with 1 being the worst). And in terms of a woman’s right to divorce, Egypt scores 1 out of 0-1 (with 1 being the worst).

We can see a similar trend when it comes to other personal freedoms, like inheritance rights: Egypt scores 1 when it comes to inheritance rights for daughters (with 1 being the worst). And we score 0.75 in accessing land and non-land assets (with 1 being the worst). The rights of Egyptian women in these areas are “limited,” the report says. Women’s rights to equal justice and to travel outside the country are similarly dismal, at 0.75 out of 0-1 (with 1 being the worst).

Egypt’s been steadily making progress since 2006: Egypt’s overall score in 2021 is 0.639, up from 0.614 in 2018 (when we were ranked 135 out of 149 countries) and well up from 0.579 in 2006 (when we were ranked 109 out of 115 countries).

Most areas have seen moderate gains during this time: In economic participation, we’re up 0.421 (and ranked 146) compared to 0.416 in 2006 (when we were ranked 108). In educational attainment, we’re up to 0.973 (ranked 105) compared to 0.903 in 2006 (when we were ranked 90). But we’re down slightly in health and survival, where our score is 0.968 (and we’re ranked 102) compared to 2006, when we had a score of 0.974 (and were ranked 66).

So how do we compare globally and regionally? Iceland tops this year’s index, with a score of 0.892, while Afghanistan comes in last, with a score of 0.444. Israel comes in at 60, with a score of 0.724, the UAE is 72 with a score of 0.716, Tunisia is 126 with a score of 0.649, and Jordan and Lebanon are 131 and 132 respectively, both with a score of 0.638. Within MENA, Egypt ranks 4 out of 19 countries assessed.

The report concludes that throughout the world, we’re still years away from closing the gender gap — and MENA’s doing worst of all. On our current trajectory, it would take 135.6 years to close the gender gap worldwide, the report tells us. In MENA, the region with the largest overall gender gap (at about 40%), it would take 142.2 years. “The progress is slow,” the report says.

14-30 September (Tuesday-Thursday): 76th session of the UN General Assembly, New York.

29 September (Wednesday): DevOpsDays Cairo 2021 is being organized by ITIDA and the Software Engineering Competence Center in cooperation with DXC Technology, IBM Egypt and Orange Labs.

30 September-2 October (Thursday-Saturday): Egypt Projects 2021 expo, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo, Egypt.

30 September-8 October (Thursday-Friday): The Cairo International Fair, Cairo International Conference Center, Cairo, Egypt.

30 September (Thursday): Winter opening hours for shops and restaurants begins.

30 September: Closing of 2021’s first oil and gas tender in the Gulf of Suez, Western Desert, and the Mediterranean.

30 September (Thursday): First tranche of overdue subsidy payouts will be handed to eligible exporters.

30 September (Thursday): Direct flights between Egypt and three Libyan airports resume.

October: Romanian President Klaus Iohannis could visit Egypt in mid this month to discuss ways to boost tourism cooperation between the two countries.

1 October (Friday): Businesses importing goods at seaports will need to file shipping documents and cargo data digitally to the Advance Cargo Information (ACI) system.

1 October (Friday): Expo 2020 Dubai opens.

1 October (Friday): Deadline for state-owned companies and government agencies to sign up to e-invoicing platform.

2 October (Saturday): House returns from recess; new legislative session begins.

5 October (Tuesday): Senate returns from recess; new legislative session begins.

6 October (Wednesday): Armed Forces Day.

7 October (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Armed Forces Day.

9 October (Saturday): Public schools begin 2021-2022 academic year

11-17 October (Monday-Sunday): IMF + World Bank Annual Meetings.

12-14 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Mediterranean Offshore Conference, Alexandria, Egypt.

18 October (Monday): Prophet’s Birthday.

21 October (Thursday): National holiday in observance of the Prophet’s Birthday.

24-28 October (Sunday-Thursday) Cairo Water Week, Cairo, Egypt.

27-28 October (Wednesday-Thursday) Intelligent Cities Exhibition & Conference, Royal Maxim Palace Kempinski, Cairo, Egypt.

28 October (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

28 October (Thursday): Second tranche of overdue subsidy payouts will be handed to eligible exporters.

30 October – 4 November (Saturday-Thursday): The first edition of Race The Legends, Egypt.

November: The French-Egyptian Business Forum is set to take place in the Suez Canal Economic Zone.

November: Egypt will host another round of talks to reach a potential Egyptian-Eurasian trade agreement, which can significantly contribute to increasing the volume of Egyptian exports to the Russia-led bloc that includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

1-3 November (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt Energy exhibition on power and renewable energy, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo, Egypt.

2-3 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): The Federal Reserve meets to review interest rates.

1-12 November (Monday-Friday): 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), Glasgow, United Kingdom.

16-17 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Africa fintech summit, Cairo.

26 November-5 December (Friday-Sunday): The 43rd Cairo International Film Festival.

29 November-2 December (Monday-Thursday): Egypt Defense Expo, Egypt International Exhibition Centre.

7-8 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): North Africa Trade Finance Summit.

8-10 December (Wednesday-Thursday): Global Forum for Higher Education and Scientific Research (GFHS), Cairo, Egypt.

12-14 December (Sunday-Tuesday): Food Africa Cairo trade exhibition, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo, Egypt.

13-17 December: United Nations Convention against Corruption, Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt.

14-19 December (Tuesday-Sunday): The Cairo International Festival for Experimental Theater.

14-15 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): The Federal Reserve meets to review interest rates.

15 December (Wednesday): Deadline for joint stock companies and investment companies in Cairo to join e-invoicing platform.

16 December (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

14-16 February 2022 (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt Petroleum Show, Egypt International Exhibition Center, New Cairo, Egypt.

1H2022: The World Economic Forum annual meeting, location TBD.

22-24 April 2022: World Bank-IMF spring meeting, Washington D.C.

May 2022: Investment in Logistics Conference, Cairo, Egypt

16 June 2022 (Thursday): End of 2021-2022 academic year for public schools

27 June-3 July 2022 (Monday-Sunday): World University Squash Championships, New Giza.

2H2022: IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forum, Egypt. Date + location TBA.

**Note to readers: Some national holidays may appear twice above. Since 2020, Egypt has observed most mid-week holidays on Thursdays regardless of the day on which they fall and may also move those days to Sundays. We distinguish below between the actual holiday and its observance.