An improving operating environment since 3Q2020 has eased pressure on Egyptian banks’ credit profiles and ratings, according to a Fitch Ratings report yesterday. Fitch had in July revised its outlook for the banking sector from negative to stable, “reflecting the stable outlook on the operating environment,” according to the report.

What’s driving the rosier outlook? With a reversal in capital outflows as investor confidence returns, Egyptian banks’ foreign currency liquidity improved, with foreign holdings of Egyptian treasuries increasing to USD 29 bn at the end of May from USD 10 bn in June 2020. The USD 5.2 bn IMF standby loan, as well as resilient remittances, also helped restore investor confidence, Fitch said. An increase in Egyptian banks’ net foreign assets to USD 1.7 bn by the end of June 2021 on the back of lower liabilities was also a good indicator.

Higher foreign liabilities still pose a risk: In efforts to recover from the aftermath of the covid-19 sell-off from emerging markets, while maintaining credit profiles and viability ratings, more Egyptian banks had to tap international financial institutions for funding “to support their FC liquidity.” However, higher foreign liabilities still raise some repayment risks. “Banks’ debt-servicing capacity could come under renewed pressure from another wave of sell-offs by foreign investors,” Fitch said.

The good news is that “about 70% of the sector’s external debt is long-term and banks hold enough stocks of FC liquid assets against their short-term FC liabilities.” While being equipped with readily-available liquidity buffers, some banks have already begun to remit their FC term loans, while directing lending to working capital financing rather than capex. Egypt’s expected stable current account deficit, higher FX reserves and an expected pick-up in tourism should also support banks’ FC liquidity going forward.

Egypt’s GDP is expected to grow at a 6% clip in FY2022-2023, up from 3% expected in the current fiscal year, according to Fitch estimates. Recovering economic growth and higher foreign investments, buoyed by low interest rates, are expected to drive “low double-digit loan growth in 2021, with an acceleration in 2022.” Last year, loan growth was boosted by both the CBE’s March 2020 decision to delay loan repayments for individuals and businesses by six months, and by initiatives to provide lending to SMEs and certain sectors at subsidized rates.