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Sunday, 13 June 2021

THIS MORNING: MPC meets this week; Latest from the G7; Hajj is a no-go for the second year running; and Zero-G with Jeff.

Good morning friends, and happy Sunday to you all. We have just three weeks left until the “true” kickoff of Sahel season. We’re looking forward to some sun, sand and salt water as much as all of you are, but … wow, do we have a lot to get done in the next three weeks.

THE BIG NEWS this week: The Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee set to meet on Thursday, 17 June to review rates.

All 11 analysts and economists we spoke with are calling another hold as inflation hit its highest level all year in May as the global commodities boom began to hit the domestic economy. We have a full rundown in the news well, below.

Otherwise, it’s a moderately busy news day — there’s enough to keep us on our toes here at home, but it’s not overwhelming. Abroad, the G7 own the headlines in the global business press.


WHERE DID WE LEAVE OFF LAST WEEK? Catch up quick with the top stories from Thursday’s edition of EnterprisePM:

  • Inflation rises in May: Annual urban inflation accelerated to 4.8% in May from 4.1% in April, thanks to a spike in commodity prices and an unfavorable base effect.
  • Ebtikar sets 4Q2021 IPO deadline: The e-payments company narrowed the deadline for its planned EGX debut to 4Q2021 after having originally eyed a larger window within 2H2021.
  • State banks get funding from global lenders: Banque du Caire signed a USD 200 mn financing agreement with the African Export-Import Bank to fund its expansion plans in Africa, while National Bank of Egypt and European Investment Bank signed a USD 100 mn green SME financing agreement.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD- G7 nations are set to announce a raft of plans as the summit of Western world leaders concludes today. Expect more details on a program to help low-income countries cope with climate change, an infrastructure investment plan to counter China’s road and belt programs, and further details on the ambitious plan to tax multinationals before the three-day summit wraps up today. Among the biggest announcements so far:

  • The developing world may be getting a huge get out of jail card: The US and other G7 nations are considering unlocking USD 100 bn from the IMF’s reserves to help low- and middle-income countries survive the pandemic. The global effort would address health needs including vaccinations as well as help enable greener, more robust economic recoveries, the White House said in a fact sheet. (Reuters)
  • Industrial policy is no longer a dirty word in the West: The G7 will call today for huge infrastructure investment in green energy and infrastructure to act as a counterweight to China’s tn-USD Belt and Road Initiative. Called “Build Back Better for the World” and billed as a sort of “green Marshall Plan,” the initiative would see countries pour hundreds of bns of USD into low-carbon projects around the world — and contain China’s growing influence in the process. (AP | FT).
  • And neither is deficit spending: The Biden administration’s “carry on spending” plan has found support among other G7 leaders, who came together yesterday to reject austerity and called for more spending to combat inequality (FT).

Leaders had also been expected to announce plans for a “covid passport” to make international travel easier, but there was no word by dispatch time that the documents would be included in the final communique.

SIGN OF THE TIMES #1- Foreign pilgrims will not be allowed to go on Hajj for a second straight year as a result of the pandemic and the emergence of highly-transmissible covid-19 variants, Saudi state news agency SPA reports. Authorities will allow only 60k Saudi citizens and residents aged 18-65 who have received at least one shot of a covid-19 vaccine to attend in an effort to prevent its covid epidemic from spreading. This is the second year of restrictions after the emergence of the virus last year saw the Saudi government allow only 1k people to make the trip.

SIGN OF THE TIMES #2- How much will it cost to go zero-G with Jeff? USD 28 mn, apparently. The story is everywhere this morning, from Bloomberg and the FT to Reuters and the Guardian.

MUST-READ FOR FINANCE NERDS- Has private equity conquered the US tax system? The New York Times is out with a front-page takedown of the US private equity industry, which it says skirts the tax system using borderline illegal tax avoidance strategies thanks to the lack of audits. Using an army of lobbyists, a [redacted] load of “campaign contributions” and — perhaps most importantly — vast networks of partnerships — industry bigwigs have convinced and confused politicians and an under-resourced IRS, preventing proper scrutiny of their financial affairs, the Times claims.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

The first forum of the heads of African investment promotion agencies continues in Sharm El Sheikh today. Ministers, heads of investment agencies from 34 African countries and representatives of major financial institutions are in attendance, according to a cabinet statement. The forum runs until tomorrow.

From the conference so far:

  • Egypt will soon sign a contract to build a six-km suspension bridge over Lake Nasser to Sudan that will connect the two countries via rail and improve bilateral and regional trade, Transport Minister Kamel El Wazir said at the conference.
  • The General Authority For Investment and Freezones signed two MoUs with Sudan and South Sudan to increase bilateral investment.

The Egypt Green Economy Forum (pdf) kicks off tomorrow.

The Arab League will meet in Doha on Tuesday for “emergency” GERD talks at the request of Egypt and Sudan, Arab League Assistant Secretary-General Hossam Zaki told state-run news agency MENA yesterday. The meeting comes after Cairo and Khartoum both called last week for the international community to push Ethiopia to restart negotiations over GERD as time runs out before Addis Ababa resumes filling the dam.

It’s probably not a coincidence that this is happening just after Washington’s man in East Africa, Jeffery Feltman, departed the region, having spent a week holding talks in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kenya about the GERD dispute.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

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