Could BdC IPO in the first half — or will we “just” see the sale of a stake to a strategic investor? Or will United Bank go first? What about Semadco? Chatter about which companies are on the auction block (and which aren’t) as part of the state asset program is reaching a crescendo a bit more than 24 hours ahead of the presser Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly has said would take place after Wednesday’s cabinet meeting.

Madbouly is expected to unveil a list of 20+ companies in which the state plans to sell shares.

FIRST OFF- Take it all with a grain of salt: Policymakers have a habit of using the terms “list,” “IPO,” and “stake sale” interchangeably. We’re not aware of anybody in the market with an IPO at the moment, suggesting that any activity before Ramadan (22 March or so) would be in the form of stake sales to strategics.

Herewith, a rundown on who’s said what — and what you might actually expect:

House Planning Committee boss Fakhri El Fiqi waded in, telling Al Mal Banque du Caire (BdC) will go ahead with its long-awaited IPO in 1H 2023 as part of the government’s rebooted privatization program. The state-owned bank plans to sell 45% of its shares to investors — as it had planned back in 2020 — but around half of that stake may now be offered to one or more strategic investor, El Fiqi said. BdC currently has until 31 March 2023 to wrap up IPO procedures after getting an extension from the Financial Regulatory Authority.

Also set to sell shares in the first half of the year: The four other companies that have already been added to the Sovereign Fund of Egypt’s pre-IPO fund alongside BdC should also sell stakes in 1H 2023, El Fiqi said. These reportedly include two military-owned firms — bottled drinks firm Safi and fuel retailer Wataniya — alongside Misr Life Ins., and Egyptian Linear Alkyl Benzene (Elab). Another private sale we’ve been hearing reports of — Saudi sovereign fund PIF’s acquisition of United Bank — is set to go ahead by the end of 1Q, according to El Fiqi.

Could we be looking at 21 companies? That’s the contention of Asharq Business, which is out with a list of 21 firms it says will sell stakes this year — most of which were flagged by the EGX (pdf) itself last month as being in the privatization pipeline — citing an anonymous source.

Secondary offerings, too? The list includes EGX-listed firms at which existing shareholders could sell down their positions, including chemicals companies Sidpec and Abu Qir. Madbouly, however, said last week that all of the companies in the pipeline will be offering stakes for the first time.

eMethanex and Alex Bank have also been reported to be on the sale list, but public offerings of shares in either would need a green light from other shareholders, making it more likely we’ll see stake sales if they are, indeed, on the list.

A BIG QUESTION: How much equity will the state sell in each company? Anywhere from 5-20% of each, Asharq’s report suggests — a range we think may not be sufficiently attractive to investors. Strategics typically don’t want minority positions and they don’t want to invest in the absence of clear management control.

Khaleejis are apparently eyeing another fertilizer player: Al Borsa reported yesterday that Gulf sovereign funds are interested in acquiring an undisclosed stake in El Nasr for Fertilizers and Chemical Industries (Semadco), citing anonymous sources. Egyptian fertilizer companies have been targeted by wealth funds in the UAE and Saudi over the past year: between them, ADQ and the Public Investment Fund now own almost half of Abu Qir and Mopco after purchasing shares from state institutions last year.