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Wednesday, 1 February 2023

Privatization plans, interest rates, and CDs make for another econ-heavy night

We got more economy lessons from the talking heads last night, as the government’s upcoming announcement on its listing pipeline and tomorrow’s rate policy meeting at the central bank took top billing on the airwaves.

Lamees urges “significant” EGX listings — not only strategic stake sales: Noting that cabinet did not invite any EGX reps to a privatization planning meeting yesterday, El Hadidi said she hoped that strategic sales of stakes in state-owned firms would not preclude listings on the bourse. “I hope there is a significant portion for the EGX because it needs to revitalize,” she said (watch, runtime: 2:53). El Hadidi also said the government’s listing program would benefit from a “specific timetable” and not a rough timeline as indicated by Planning Minister Hala El Said during the meeting. Yesterday’s meeting also got a mention from Masa’a DMC (watch, runtime: 8:42).

This could take time: While the government will most likely accelerate its IPO plans to “meet commitments and give positive indicators to markets,” we shouldn’t expect to see any fresh listings this quarter, former EGX chairman Sameh El Torgoman told Kelma Akhira (watch, runtime: 10:03). Strategic investors could buy stakes in existing listed firms sooner, he said, but given lengthy IPO timelines and the Ramadan slowdown, we’re more likely to see movement on listings in 2Q, he said.

We agree: With no IPOs in the market right now, sales to strategics on non-listed companies (or accelerated book builds on already-listed, state-controlled companies) are the way to go. We’ll have a narrow window in which IPOs are possible in May and early June and then that’s it until September.

REFRESHER- The government yesterday said it would soon reveal details of the state-owned companies it plans to offer to investors — both through private stake sales and on the EGX — under its revamped privatization strategy. Indications thus far have been that strategic stake sales — including through the Sovereign Fund of Egypt’s pre-IPO fund — could likely precede IPOs of state-owned companies on the bourse.

Three analysts took to the airwaves last night to predict that the central bank will keep rates unchanged when it meets tomorrow — at odds with most of those we polled at the start of the week. Banking expert Sahar El Damaty and former Blom Bank Egypt deputy managing director Tarek Metwally both told Kelma Akhira they expect policymakers to hold rates steady (watch, runtime: 5:40 | watch, runtime: 8:23), while economist Mostafa Badra said the same to Yahduth Fe Masr (watch, runtime: 3:52.)

We’re not so sure: Four of the seven analysts and economists we surveyed in our rate poll see the Monetary Policy Committee raising rates by 100-200 bps later this week, while the median estimate in a Reuters poll is also for a 150-bps hike.

The final tally on high-interest CDs at NBE, Banque Misr: Savers poured some EGP 500 bn into the now-scrapped record high-yield 25% CDs introduced in January at the National Bank of Egypt (NBE) and Banque Misr, NBE Deputy Chairman Yehia Aboul Fotouh told Yahduth Fe Masr (watch, runtime: 5:20.) Banque du Caire joined the other two state-owned banks in pulling the high-yield CDs at the end of the working day yesterday.

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