Good morning, wonderful people, and welcome back to work. We hope you (and the kids trudging back to school) had a fantastic long weekend — and that everyone celebrating had a beautiful Christmas with family and friends.

Where did we leave things off last week before the Vacation Neuralizer reset our brains?

• The EGP had slid to 27.20 against the greenback;
• The National Bank of Egypt and Banque Misr had introduced 12-month, 25% certificates of deposit;
• Italy said it wants to build a USD 2.8 bn link that would allow it to import electricity from Egypt;
• Our friends at Compass Capital became the latest to declare themselves interested in acquiring a majority stake in Pachin, the EGX-listed paint-maker.

THE BIG STORY HERE AT HOME- Are we starting to find our way out of the tunnel? There are signs the 25% certificates are attracting record demand and the central bank says it is letting supply-and-demand forces set the value of the EGP.

The next two big checkpoints:

#1- Where does the EGP go today against the greenback today and tomorrow?

#2- The IMF will hold a virtual press conference on its USD 3 bn financial assistance program with Egypt tomorrow at 4pm CLT, the institution said in an emailed statement out over the weekend. The presser, held by IMF Mission Chief for Egypt Ivanna Vladkova Hollar, will coincide with the release of the IMF’s staff report on Egypt and other documents related to the extended fund facility.

WHAT’S HAPPENING TODAY-

The Senate is back in session today with a busy agenda: The upper house of parliament will kick off a two-day debate today on how to integrate the informal economy. The catalyst is a a study prepared by senator and business leader Ahmed Abu Hashima. Also:

• The Senate’s Financial and Economic Affairs Committee is set to hold a series of hearings on a report drafted by the pro-government Mostaqbal Watan party that aims to overhaul how we approach foreign direct investment.
• The Financial and Economic Affairs Committee will also discuss proposals to enforce price controls on key commodities.
• The Senate Housing Committee will resume discussions on amendments to the 2008 Unified Building Law.

PSA #1- Look for a daytime high of just 18°C and largely cloudy skies today in the capital city, our favorite weather app warns. The weather in Alex will be a little warmer at 20°C with mostly sunny skies, while those of you toiling from El Gouna and Somabay can expect a high of 22°C and not a cloud in the sky. (We hope you enjoyed the thunder and lightning show last night as much as we did.)

PSA #2- Your next long weekend kicks off on Thursday, 26 January in observance of Revolution / Police Day. Plan to make the most of it — that will be your last national holiday until April, when we’ll have blocks of time off for Coptic Easter, Sham El Nessim, Sinai Liberation Day, and Eid El Fitr.

PSA #3- There are 73 days until Ramadan. Just sayin’.

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

Inflation figures for December will be released tomorrow.

We may hear a bit more about the Madbouly government’s approach to privatization and state involvement in the economy with Vice Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk and Sovereign Fund of Egypt (SFE) CEO Ayman Soliman scheduled to discuss the newly finalized state ownership policy document at an event (pdf) scheduled to take place at the Grand Nile Tower Hotel. The conference is being hosted by Thebes Consultancy and Eventor Event Management.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD- Bolsonaro supporters storm Brazilian gov’t complex in echo of US 6 January riots: Fans of rightwing former president Jair Bolsonaro stormed Brazil’s Congress, supreme court, and presidential palace last night. The riot broke out in the aftermath of a planned demonstration by Bolsonaro supporters to contest last week’s inauguration of returning president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in scenes reminiscent of the 6 January riots on the US Capitol by Donald Trump supporters in 2021. Brazilian police fought back control of the buildings, which were empty when the attack took place. Everyone from the FT and BBC to CNN, Reuters and NPR has the story.

AND- The World Bank has warned that further crises could tip the global economy into a recession in 2023 ahead of the release of its Global Economic Prospects report next Tuesday, 17 January. Global growth this year “is expected to decelerate sharply, reflecting synchronous policy tightening aimed at containing very high inflation, worsening financial conditions, and continued disruptions from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” the international lender warned, adding that “urgent global and national efforts” will be needed to mitigate these risks, as well as the risk of debt distress in emerging markets.

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DATA POINT #1- A record number of doctors left the public health system last year -Medical Syndicate: Some 4.3k doctors — or 12 every day — left the public health system in 2022, up 3.2% y-o-y, according to a Medical Syndicate statement. The Syndicate said the true figure could be much higher than its survey data reflects, adding that doctors were leaving state-run health facilities thanks in part to low pay and an unfavorable work environment.

DATA POINT #2- The volume of our agricultural exports rose 14% to a record 6.4 mn tons in 2022, the Agriculture Ministry said in a statement yesterday. Citrus fruits were once again the most exported product last year by weight at 1.8 mn tons, followed by potatoes at 871k tons and onions at 578k tons.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The national dialogue will kick off on Saturday, 14 January.

Global movers and shakers will descend on Davos for the World Economic Forum’s annual meetings on 16-20 January.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue: Price pressures could spell trouble for study abroad programs at local universities.