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Thursday, 13 October 2022

Planet Finance: Things are not looking up for the UK economy

Is a recession looming for the UK? The UK economy contracted unexpectedly by 0.3% in August as production rates fell spelling recessionary risks, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The drop was mainly driven by a dip of 1.8% in production fuelled by lower manufacturing rates. A Reuters poll of economists had expected the economy to remain unchanged in August, but figures are down from July when the economy grew by 0.1%.

SOUND SMART- What counts as a recession? The word is being bandied about an awful lot of late, especially after the IMF yesterday said it expects more than a third of global economies to contract this year or next. As a rule of thumb, a recession is two consecutive quarters of contraction.

Meanwhile, UK financial markets were once again plunged into turmoil yesterday after the Bank of England insisted it would not extend its emergency bond-buying program past Friday, the BBC reports. Reports earlier in the day suggested the BoE had privately told bankers it could extend the program. Government borrowing costs briefly hit their highest since 2008 on the news amid a major selloff in the bond markets. The UK is grappling with bond turmoil — including a gilt market crisis — and a weakening currency after investors were spooked by an ill-advised mini-budget including steep tax cuts from PM Liz Truss.

It could be a rough Monday: If the fire sale intensifies on Monday and “it all breaks loose,” the central bank may be forced to intervene in the markets once again, one analyst told the Beeb.

ALSO ON PLANET FINANCE-

  • Arabian Drilling IPO subscription 61x oversubscribed: Saudi drilling firm Arabian Drilling attracted USD 43 bn in orders in its bookbuilding process, making the offering 61x oversubscribed. The company set the final share price for its IPO at SAR 100 (USD 26.6) per share, making the offering worth USD 712 mn. (Statement)

Down

EGX30

9,801

-0.7% (YTD: -18.0%)

None

USD (CBE)

Buy 19.62

Sell 19.73

None

USD at CIB

Buy 19.65

Sell 19.71

None

Interest rates CBE

11.25% deposit

12.25% lending

Up

Tadawul

11,551

+0.3% (YTD: +2.4%)

Down

ADX

9,734

-0.2% (YTD: +14.7%)

Up

DFM

3,325

+0.2% (YTD: +4.0%)

Down

S&P 500

3,577

-0.3% (YTD: -25.0%)

Down

FTSE 100

6,826

-0.9% (YTD: -7.6%)

Down

Euro Stoxx 50

3,332

-0.3% (YTD: -22.5%)

Down

Brent crude

USD 92.42

-0.0%

Up

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 6.44

+0.1%

Up

Gold

USD 1,681.50

+0.2%

Up

BTC

USD 19,139

+0.2% (YTD: -58.5%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.7% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 883.09 mn (9.8% below the 90-day average). Local investors were net buyers. The index is down 18.0% YTD.

In the green: Alexandria Containers and Cargo Handling (+1.7%), EFG Hermes (+1.2%) and Eastern Company (+0.8%).

In the red: Elsewedy Electric (-6.0%), Fawry (-4.4%) and Credit Agricole Egypt (-3.3%).

Asian markets are in the red across the board in early trading for the second consecutive morning. Futures suggest European markets are also set to open down — as they have done for most of the week. The three major US benchmarks are again bucking the trend as of this morning and look likely to open in the green later on today.

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