Not predicting a recession in the US this year or next: The IMF, which said in a statement Friday that it expects the US to “narrowly avoid” going into recession before 2023, as curbs to inflation help protect real income and sustain growth over the medium term. Economists and analysts have been falling over themselves to forecast a recession, with some predicting a 50% chance of a downturn in the US this year or the next.

The lender expects the Fed’s tightening to work: The US Federal Reserve’s hawkish cycle will result in an “upfront tightening of financial conditions which will quickly bring inflation back to target,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters, according to Bloomberg,

That doesn’t mean it’ll be plain sailing: The IMF slashed its growth forecast for the US this year to 2.9%, down from the 3.7% it had predicted as recently as April. Georgieva stressed that there are “very significant” downside risks for the US economy both this year and next.

A rare good Friday for US stocks helped snap their three-week losing streak, the Washington Post reports. After the worst week for global stocks since March 2020 the week before, US indices rallied on Friday and managed to stage a comeback for the week. The S&P 500 was up 6.5% on the week before, the Dow Jones climbed 5.4%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq — which has taken a battering in a tighter monetary environment — gained 7.5%.

Don’t get your bull horns on just yet: “Even though the market has started to recover, the concerns that caused the bear market are still with us, such as inflation, an aggressive Federal Reserve, high oil prices and geopolitical tensions,” one chief investment officer said in a note cited by the paper.

ALSO IN PLANET FINANCE-

• Ride-hailing service turned super app Careem has acquired UAE food delivery subscription platform MUNCH:ON for an undisclosed sum. (Press release)
• Barclays has approved buying UK specialist mortgage lender Kensington Mortgage from Blackstone Inc. and Sixth Street in a GBP 2.3 bn (USD 2.8 bn) transaction. (Bloomberg)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 1.8% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 386 mn (53.7% below the 90-day average). Foreign investors were net sellers. The index is down 21.0% YTD.

In the green: Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (+2.6%), Rameda (+0.9%) and AMOC (+0.6%).

In the red: MM Group (-4.9%), Madinet Nasr Housing (-4.1%) and CIB (-3.0%).