Good morning, friends, and welcome to the last full workweek of Ramadan. We’ll be off at least two days next week, though Cabinet has yet to confirm which holidays will be observed on which days. Coptic Easter is a week from today, while Sinai Liberation Day and Sham El Nessim are both the following Monday.

Refresher: Last year, we observed Coptic Easter and Sham El Nessim on Sunday and Monday.

Happy holidays to everyone who is celebrating something this morning. Today is Western Easter, Passover, and day 16 of Ramadan. US, UK and Canadian markets were closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday. The New York and Toronto stock exchanges are back to work tomorrow, while the London Stock Exchange will remain closed in observance of Easter.

PSA #1- It’s going to be hot and dusty today. Look for a daytime high anywhere from 39°C (according the the national weather service) to 42°C (says our favourite weather app) along with some nasty, dusty winds. The mercury will ease to 33°C in the capital city tomorrow before settling in at a more seasonable 27-28°C for the rest of the week.

COVID WATCH- Egypt saw an average of 124 new covid-19 cases per day last week, down from 400 per day the week before. We also saw a daily average of six deaths, down from an average of seven the week before, according to Health Ministry figures released yesterday. Around 33.6 mn people are now fully vaccinated and nearly 2.3 mn have had their boosters, the statement added.

Hats off the the Health Ministry folks working at vaccination centers. The resident 14-year-old got her jab yesterday in the People’s Democratic Republic of Maadi. Clinic staff were friendly, kind and super efficient. Maybe the Health Ministry could be prevailed upon to teach a customer service course to the folks at the morour?

No more PCR swabs rammed up your nose? Covid breathalyzer tests could soon be a thing in the US. The US Food and Drug Administration has issued an emergency use authorization for a covid test that relies on breath samples. Positive results would still need to be confirmed with a traditional PCR test.

How much longer will 18% CDs be available? More than half a tn EGP have poured into 18% CDs that the National Bank of Egypt and Banque Misr launched last month (EGP 543 bn as of last week — check the numbers here and here).

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

The IMF + World Bank Spring Meetings start tomorrow in Washington: Global finance chiefs will descend on Washington tomorrow for the IMF and World Bank annual Spring Meetings. Expect the global economic impact of the war in Ukraine and fears of food security to dominate the agenda. International Cooperation Minister Rania Al Mashat yesterday met with Marina Weiss, WB regional director for Egypt, Yemen and Djibouti, to finalize preparations ahead of Al Mashat’s participation in the event, according to a statement.

Our ongoing talks with the IMF for a new program will be a topic of discussion, according to fund chief Kristalina Georgieva, who told Bloomberg that the IMF would sit down with Egyptian officials to discuss the country’s rising debt level. The fund “will sit with Sri Lanka, we will sit with Egypt, we will sit with Tunisia, and we will discuss what realistically needs to be done,” she said.

Smart money has the IMF downgrading its global growth forecast when it releases its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday.

The World Bank is forecasting “insufficient and uneven” growth in MENA this year on the back of the crisis. In its latest monthly economic update (pdf) for our neck of the woods, the bank forecasts average GDP growth of 5.2% — which would be the fastest rate since 2016 — but cautions this will be uneven, with oil exporters seeing 5.4% growth and importers 4.0%. Rising food and oil prices will hit the region, especially countries with high net imports (like Egypt). Eleven out of 17 of MENA’s economies are not expected to exceed their pre-pandemic GDP in 2022, it said.

Egypt’s growth will dip slightly next year, according to the bank, which has penciled in a 5% rate for the fiscal year starting this coming July, down from a projected 5.5% in the current FY.

PSA #3- You only have four days left to file your ESG report: EGX-listed companies and all non-bank financial services outfits regardless of listing status need to submit their first quarterly ESG questionnaire by this Wednesday, 20 April. The regulator is making it mandatory for corporates to publicly disclose their performance on key environmental, social and governance metrics each year when they submit their annual financial statements, starting 2023. Reach out to Moustafa Taalab at InkankIR, our parent company, if you need some help.

WHAT’S HAPPENING TODAY-

The House of Representatives is reconvening today and will be in session through at least Thursday. MPs are set to sign off on bilateral and multilateral funding agreements including an EUR 250 mn loan from the European Bank for Development and Reconstruction to to transform Alexandria’s Abu Qir railway into an electrified metro line. The House will also discuss final budget accounts for the current fiscal year.

Consoleya is hosting an investor talk and sohour with Cairo Angels today at 9pm CLT. The event will begin with a fireside chat on e-commerce, featuring former Jumia CCO François D’hautefort, with Cairo Angels’ Hossam Allam as moderator. A sohour and networking session for investors will follow the talk. You can register here.

PSA #2- Enterprise doesn’t do sohours. By which we mean that while some of us have sohour, those of us who toil on the night or pre-dawn shifts don’t. We’re either working when you folks break bread or are asleep so we can wake while it’s still very dark to close out your morning read. So please, friends, forgive us for declining your firm’s sohour invitations. We hope you all have a great time.

SO, WHEN DO WE EAT? You’ll be breaking your fast at 6:23pm CLT this evening in the capital city, and fajr prayers are at 3:55am.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD- It’s the war in Ukraine. Here’s what you need to know this morning:

• Your unlikely peacemaker of the day is Roman Abramovich: The Russian b’naire and Chelsea FC owner is in Kyiv trying to restart stalled peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. (Bloomberg)
• Russian forces claim to be on the brink of capturing the eastern Ukrainian city of Mariupol, site of the war’s “worst humanitarian catastrophe.” (Reuters)
• Kyiv and other parts of western Ukraine were hit by fresh missile attacks on Saturday despite Russian troops’ withdrawal from the area. (Associated Press)
• Moscow is threatening deploying nuclear weapons in the Baltic Sea if Sweden and Finland join NATO — but Lithuania’s president says they should do it anyway. (Reuters | Financial Times)

THE BIG BUSINESS STORY- Twitter fights Elon Musk’s hostile takeover with a “poison pill”: After Tesla and SpaceX boss Elon Musk announced an offer to buy Twitter (yes, all of it) for USD 43 bn, the social media giant’s board adopted the poison pill strategy to prevent the richest man in the world from taking sole ownership of the company. Musk suggested in interviews that he wasn’t about to back down from the fight despite saying in a letter to the board (see Exhibit B) that “my offer is my best and final offer and if it is not accepted, I would need to reconsider my position as a shareholder.”

SOUND SMART- What’s a “poison pill”? Conceived in the early 1980s as the OG corporate raiders really got down to business, a poison pill is when a board decides it will flood the market with shares priced far below market value if a certain (hostile) investor reaches a predetermined shareholding threshold. The catch: The hostile isn’t allowed to buy shares at the new, lower price — making it super-expensive for them not to be diluted.

Fun fact: Elon launched his hostile takeover bid on Twitter CFO Ned Segal’s birthday.

Keeping up with Elon: The story and its logistics are everywhere, including from Reuters and the New York Times to Bloomberg and the Financial Times.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Higher Education Minister Khaled Abdel Ghaffar will address AmCham’s pre-annual general meeting and iftar this coming Tuesday, 19 April from 6-8pm at the Nile Ritz Carlton. Abdel Ghaffar will give a talk titled speak on investment in the nation’s healthcare and pharma sectors.

Next steps in Tenth of Ramadan dry port tender: The General Authority for Land and Dry Ports will issue the conditions booklet to bidders in its tender to establish and operate the Tenth of Ramadan dry port next month, Al Borsa reported citing Amr Ismail authority head.

Further afield, Egypt will host the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’s annual meeting of the board of governors in 2023, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait and execs at the bank agreed during a meeting, according to a cabinet statement. The move comes as Egypt aims to bolster multilateral cooperation between Asia and Africa and become a regional logistics hub for transport and energy.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

*** It’s What’s Next day: We have our weekly deep-dive into what makes and shapes pre-listed companies and startups in Egypt, the UAE and KSA, touching on investment trends, future sector insights and growth journeys.

In today’s issue: We continue our roundtable discussion with Egyptian private sector fintech players. Last week, we explored the untapped potential of fintech and which industries are most primed for change. This week, we’re looking at the prospects for growth within the sector and how to get there, whether it’s through increased investments, consolidation, or expansion across Africa. You can choose to read or listen to the founders of hot startups Khazna and Kashat and two of the VCs that have backed them (our friends at Cairo Angels and Accion) about what they see is next for the local fintech sector.

Listen to part 2 of our discussion on: our website (listen, runtime: 33:45) or Apple Podcasts. Or read all about it below..