Traders have warned GASC of supply difficulties ahead of today’s wheat tender as conflict rages between major growers Russia and Ukraine, Bloomberg reports. Some traders have told GASC they won’t be able to offer Black Sea wheat due to the turmoil triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to anonymous sources. The two Black Sea countries together account for nearly a third of the world’s wheat supply — and around 80% of supply to Egypt.

Who are our best alternative suppliers? If Ukraine and Russia remain off the table, we could go for wheat from the US, France, Romania, Kazakhstan, or Germany, Internal Trade Development Authority head Ibrahim Ashmawy told Bloomberg Asharq, adding that these countries produce wheat that conforms to Egyptian specs.

Surging costs + sanctions will likely impact today’s tender. Some traders said they would sit out the tender altogether because of the surging cost of wheat from other countries, rising ins. and shipping costs, and “uncertainty due to the fast-moving changes on sanctions and other restrictions.” Suppliers have reportedly asked some Egyptian traders and agents to switch from Russia’s Sberbank, which has been hit by US sanctions.

Meaning GASC could be forced to cancel again: The authority is “prepared to cancel the tender again if needed,” Bloomberg cited an unidentified person as saying. GASC called off a wheat tender last Thursday after receiving only one offer for French wheat.

We have enough wheat stockpiled to last up to four months, Supply Minister Ali El Moselhy told President Abdel Fattah El Sisi at a meeting yesterday, according to an Ittihadiya statement, as the war’s effect on our wheat supplies continues to top the government’s agenda. El Moselhy added that the local wheat production season is set to start in April and the government’s target is to reach 4 mn tons this year, which will help cover Egypt’s needs until the end of this year.

Minds are focused on making sure state coffers weather the wheat crunch: Prime Minister Mostafa Madmbouly discussed the financing needed to ensure our commodities supplies remain intact in a meeting yesterday with El Mosehly, Central Bank Governor Tarek Amer, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait, and other officials, according to a cabinet statement.

Especially when it comes to subsidized foods: The government is paying a close eye to market prices for subsidized foods, for which the state bears the cost of any increases, Madbouly noted. It’s not yet clear whether the mayhem in the wheat market will impact the government’s plans to taper bread subsidies for the first time in decades. Details on the plan are expected to be announced by the end of next month.

Ramadan reserves: El Sisi also reviewed the status of our strategic commodity reserves and preparations for the approaching month of Ramadan, during which consumption typically spikes. As of this morning, there are 33 days left until the start of the holy month.