Good morning, friends. The big news is once again the state of play in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Here’s what you need to know this morning:

• Kyiv, the capital, is still holding out against Russian troops, who have taken or are advancing toward several sizable Ukrainian cities. The country’s second largest city, Kharkiv, is under fire, as are strategic ports in the south, the Associated Press reports. (If you're struggling to understand the geography of the conflict, head to Reuters' map for key updates.)
• Vladimir Putin has put his strategic nuclear forces on alert. Russia has some 1.5k nuclear warheads deployed and a large stockpile of smaller “tactical” nuclear weapons, the latter being of the type that could (theoretically) be deployed on the battlefield.
• The international backlash against Russia is growing, with more sanctions and a rare UN General Assembly meeting likely to happen today.
• Ukraine has agreed to talks with Russia on the border with Belarus, though few pundits expect anything to come from them.

SIGN OF THE TIMES- Norges bank, Norway’s massive (USD 1.3 tn) sovereign wealth fund, is getting out of Russia, saying it would freeze the shares it holds there and then start working on a divestment plan, the Financial Times reports. The news comes as oil major BP said it would exit its 20% stake in Russian producer Rosneft. The move will see the British company take a USD 25 bn charge and slash both its production and reserves.

TWO BIG THINGS that matter greatly to Egypt here (beyond concern over the human toll) amid this clash between two nations with whom we’ve been friends for a long time:

1- State wheat importer GASC could be forced today to call off its wheat tender as the global grain market looks increasingly in disarray. Ukraine and Russia together account for 60-80% of our grain imports at any given time.

2- Thousands of Ukrainian holidaymakers are stranded in Egypt. At least 16k Ukrainian tourists are currently in Hurghada, Sharm El-Sheikh, and Marsa Alam, Ahram Online reports Ukrainian Chargé d’Affaires in Egypt Ruslan Nechai as saying. With their country’s airspace closed, the tourists are unable to fly back home but could resort to returning through Ukraine’s borders via “friendly” countries, Nechai said. The Madbouly government has directed Egyptian hotels to extend stays of Ukrainian tourists stranded here.

MEANWHILE- Borders are open to Egyptians leaving Ukraine: Ukrainian border guards were given orders to allow Egyptians to leave the country through borders with Romania, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia, according to a statement by our embassy in Kyiv.

^^ We have more detail in this morning’s War Watch, below. It’s a hell of a note on which to end the month of February.

HAPPENING TODAY-

The Senate is set to continue debate of the unified ins. act after giving the bill preliminary approval yesterday, Ahram Online reports. The bill. which has been at least three years in the making, will make the Financial Regulatory Authority the primary regulator for the sector and make ins. compulsory for SMEs and freelancers, among other things.

It’s your last day to apply for the incubator and accelerator program for digital transformation-focused startups from the Information Technology Industry Development Agency and US-based VC firm Plug and Play, in partnership with our friends at USAID. The “Smart Cities” innovation hub will select 20-30 Egypt-based companies for its inaugural three-month program, which starts in March.

The Future of Data Centers Summit takes place today and tomorrow at the InterContinental CityStars.

LATER THIS WEEK-

The Suez Canal Authority (SCA) will increase tolls by up to 10% for laden and ballast vessels, starting 1 March, Reuters reported yesterday. The decision comes in line with “the significant growth in global trade,” along with “the Suez Canal waterway’s development and transit service enhancement,” Hapi Journal reported the SCA as saying, citing authority circulars.

Back-to-back hikes: The authority at the start of February hiked transit fees by 6% for most ships, excluding LNG carriers and cruise ships, as it works to wind down pandemic-era incentives and reductions.

IT’S ALSO A BIG WEEK for folks who care about the Fed, oil, and US politics.

1- Let’s start with a look at the Fed’s thinking in light of Russia’s war. Market watchers hope for hints from US Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell on how the Russia-Ukraine conflict is set to impact the central bank’s plans to hike interest rates when he appears before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, Bloomberg reports. Powell, who is seeking a second term as Fed boss, is expected to downplay the impact of war in Ukraine (and the ensuing sanctions against Russia) on plans to start hiking interest rates from March. Pundits now seem to think Powell wills signal a more gradual series of quarter-point hikes over the year rather than starting with a half-point jump..

Other central banks are closely watching Ukraine: The central banks of Canada, Australia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Hungary — and Ukraine itself — hold their policy meetings this week. The Central Bank of Egypt next meets to discuss rates on Thursday, 24 March.

2- OPEC+ likely won’t budge on output when it meets this Wednesday: The oil cartel is expected to stick to its strategy of gradual output increases — even after the Ukraine conflict sent crude prices soaring over USD 100 per barrel at the end of last week, Bloomberg reports. The news comes despite a report that the cartel has slashed its forecast for this year’s oil market surplus by some 200k barrels per day.

3- Joe Biden faces a tough audience at tomorrow’s State of the Union address: Only 37% of Americans approve of US President Joe Biden and the work he’s doing in office, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. That’s a low only reached by two other presidents in US history ahead of a State of the Union speech (and yes, Donald Trump was one of them). Biden will look to reassure Americans that he has a handle on a raft of crises, from the Russia-Ukraine conflict to the ongoing pandemic.

Biden’s big issue: It’s the economy, stupid. Inflation hit a 40-year high in January. Some 75% of Americans polled say the economy is “not so good or poor,” while three times more people believe the economy has gotten worse under Biden than those who think it’s improved.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Contemporary art and culture center Darb1718 is hosting its 3031 Art Festival from 4-12 March on its premises in Fustat, Old Cairo. Unique collections of multidisciplinary art will be on display along with live music, dance, theater performances, and interactive workshops. Guest speakers Adsum Art Consultancy will be on hand to discuss investing in art. Catch a full day of activities from 1:00pm–9:30pm on weekends and weekdays from 4:00pm–10:00pm.

Consoleya is holding its second Women Meet-up this Wednesday, 2 March to discuss topics including inclusivity in investment. The agenda includes a panel discussion on gender-lens funding here in Egypt.

The Diarna Handicrafts Fair kicked off last Thursday and runs through 7 March at Cairo Festival City from 10am until 10pm daily.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed. Blackboard appears every Monday in Enterprise in the place of our traditional industry news roundups.

In today’s issue: Over the past six years, the Education Ministry has been rolling out new schools that use a Japanese approach to education, as part of the ministry’s efforts to overhaul the K-12 education system. These schools, set up through a partnership with Japan, are primarily geared towards middle-income families, with the ministry targeting setting them up in governorates where classroom overcrowding is particularly problematic. Today, we look at the project, including how far we’ve come and the government’s plans for more of these schools.