Meet our analyst of the week: AAIS’ Heba Monir
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OUR ANALYST OF THE WEEK- Heba Monir, banking and financial services sector head at Arab African International Securities (LinkedIn).
My name is Heba Monir and I’m the head of the banking and financial services sector at Arab African International Securities. I studied economics and minored in political science at Cairo University, and got my first job in the field at Prime Holdings. I wasn’t an analyst when I first joined — I worked on the database until I proved my mettle, and then when I became a junior I would help our macroeconomic analyst with the data spread, which really helped me learn where to find the data I needed. In 2011, I started working with Monette Doss, who is now chief economist at HC Securities. In 2015, I had the chance to go to Ostoul Brokerage, where I became a research manager, and then I jumped to AAIS in 2018.
I mainly cover the banking sector but I also cover other finance stocks, such as EFG and CI Capital. Over time, I’m moving towards also covering fintech players, like e-Finance and Fawry.
The best part of my job is being able to correlate and link seemingly unrelated data points with each other to form the bigger picture. The nature of my focus area means that I look very in-depth at macroeconomic data to form a holistic view of the sector I cover. This really meshes well with how I like to think; I enjoy being able to sit down and really delve into the information at hand and then work my way up by finding connections and seeing the big picture.
The hardest part of my job is that I have to be up to date all the time. It can be really difficult because sometimes, you can miss an update, or there’s a development that you’ve never seen before, which requires a lot of research into comparable events in similar countries to understand what just happened and what it means. A lot of the time, you might not be able to find the information you need to fully understand the issue. But that’s the nature of the job — the upside to this is that it keeps you knowledgeable and widens your horizons.
My theory of investment is that where to invest depends on how much you want to invest in the first place. For example, if you’re looking to put your money in equities, it needs to be a substantial amount of investment to really feel the return. Bank certificates, by contrast, don’t really require as much capital because interest rates are high and they’re fixed for set periods of time, so the return feels more tangible.
The most important factor I look at before recommending an equity investment is the company or bank’s growth potential — all within the context of the bigger picture. The upside or downside potential is a reflection of the connections and correlations that exist in the overall environment, which I take into consideration in my estimates and fair value decisions.
I think the short-term outlook for the EGX is positive, even though trading volumes over the past several sessions have been relatively thin. But looking at the longer term and forming a solid outlook is difficult right now, because there are a lot of challenges and questions. One of the questions on analysts’ minds right now is whether we’re going to see monetary tightening from the Central Bank of Egypt this year as the global interest rate environment rises, which would be negative for the market.
The state privatization program will be very positive for markets, especially with the government’s recently announced plan to offer stakes in as many as 10 state-owned companies this year, at a rate of one offering every one to two months. Potentially the most positive impact from this plan would be the government making the announcement and then investors seeing the plan materializing, which would bolster confidence.
To be honest, I haven’t really had a lot of time to watch or read anything recently [laughs]. But when I do get a chance to read something, I prefer shorter reads that provide depth and get me thinking critically.
My time is usually split between my work and spending time with family and friends. I really enjoy working with my hands — I like to draw and work on handicrafts. I also love animals, so I take care of my dog and I like to take the time to feed stray dogs and cats whenever I can.
The EGX30 fell 0.2% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 369 mn (65% below the 90-day average). Foreign investors were net sellers. The index is down 3.5% YTD.
In the green: Rameda (+2.5%), EFG Hermes (+2.2%) and GB Auto (+2.2%).
In the red: Fawry (-2.2%), Medinet Nasr Housing (-2.1%) and AMOC (-1.6%).