Welcome to February, wonderful people. It’s a straight shot from here to the end of 1Q and just 60 days until the start of Ramadan, which begins on or about 2 April (that’s a Saturday). We hope all of you FMCG and advertising folks have your plans locked in and that silly season is being good to you.

HAPPENING NOW- The bears are still salivating — and wondering what’s keeping stocks aloft.

US markets closed out a horrible month with a huge rally: The S&P 500 closed up nearly 2% on Monday while the Nasdaq surged 6.6% over the past two sessions, marking both index’s biggest two-day rallies since 2020, Bloomberg reports.

But that doesn’t change the fact that it was a terrible January for stocks, with the S&P falling 5.3% over the month, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq notched its worst monthly loss in over three years, down 8.5%. Market-watchers blamed the rocky January on the anticipated Fed tightening.

Oil was another story, posting its biggest January gain in at least three decades as supply continues to outstrip demand. Brent crude, the benchmark outside the US, settled at above USD 91 / barrel on Monday, marking a 17% gain for the month. Some analysts see oil at USD 100 / barrel this year — not great for inflation everywhere, and not wonderful for Egypt’s budget projections, either, given we’re a net importer.

OPEC+ will meet tomorrow — but isn’t likely to step in on spiraling prices. The cartel is expected to agree to another gradual oil production increase of 400k bbl/d — continuing a strategy that has so far failed to meet the recovery in demand as several member countries struggle to up their output.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s still Ukraine: Russia and the US waged a war of words over Russian military buildup at its border with Ukraine at the UN Security Council’s meeting yesterday to discuss the issue. There was plenty of jawing and no action, but the Associated Press reports that Russia sent the US a written response to a proposal from Washington on how to de-escalate the crisis in the hours following.

Whether Russia is in fact willing to turn down the heat remains to be seen — though Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken are booked in to chat about it all over the phone today, Bloomberg reports. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, meanwhile, is getting on a plane to Ukraine. It can hardly be less hospitable than the environment he’s currently facing at home. And both the US and the UK are continuing to up their threats of very terrible sanctions for Russia — and newly, its elites — if it does invade its neighbor.

RELEVANT TO US- The threat of war is already driving up global wheat prices, the Wall Street Journal reports. The world’s largest wheat importer, Egypt is also the largest consumer of Ukrainian wheat, last year purchasing the equivalent of around 14% of its total wheat consumption from the eastern European country.

ALSO- The rest of the world is rushing to catch up to Egypt as they wonder when it’s okay to cancel covid. Go read the Wall Street Journal’s “Omicron pushes health authorities toward learning to live with covid-19” and marvel, once again, at how lightly Egypt has gotten off when it comes to pandemic-era lockdowns, restrictions and culture wars.

SIGN OF THE TIMES- The New York Times has bought Wordle. If you know, you know.

MEANWHILE- RIP, Dr. Johnny Fever. Howard Hesseman, who brought the radio DJ to life on WKRP in Cincinnati and was later beloved by a certain type of neurotic millennial in Head of the Class. He died at age 81. The New York Times has a nice obit.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Central Bank of Egypt will hold its first policy meeting of 2022 on Thursday. All analysts surveyed in our regular interest rate poll expect the CBE to keep rates on hold, as they anticipate our rates continuing to attract portfolio inflows even amid Fed tightening and global inflationary pressures.

January PMI figures for Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are also due out on Thursday.

From our friends at the US embassy: Women can now apply to join Fortune Global Women's Mentoring Program which will take place from 8-28 May 2022. The program aims to bring emerging women leaders from around the world to the US to meet and learn from the Fortune Most Powerful Women community, which includes executive women mentors from companies such as Accenture, Johnson & Johnson, and Aetna. The deadline to apply for the program is 8 February. You can begin your application by signing up here.

ALSO- The embassy is now accepting applications for Cultural Property Agreement Implementation projects that would help Egypt protect cultural property from looting, theft, and illicit trafficking. The guidelines state that concept notes should be sent in by this Thursday, 3 February, while shortlisted applicants will need to submit full applications by 4 May. Each project will receive USD 50-100k, with around USD 500k earmarked for the entire program.

The IMF and World Bank’s annual fall meeting this October will take place in Washington DC, with plans for Morocco to host delayed until October 2023 due to “continuing uncertainty over the covid-19 pandemic,” the World Bank announced in a statement. This marks the second year the Morocco meeting, which was initially set for 2021, has been pushed due to the pandemic. The lenders traditionally hold two consecutive annual meetings in DC, with the third meeting held in another member country.

The Cairo International Book Fair continues today at the Egypt International Exhibition Center. The event runs through to 7 February.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

*** It’s Going Green day — your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt: Enterprise’s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.

In today’s issue: The EBRD has provided Egypt EUR 1 bn in total funding in 2021 — with 44% of that going towards green economy projects. We sat down with Heike Harmgart, the EBRD’s managing director for the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean (SEMED) region, where we discussed details of their 2021 funding, their priorities for 2022, and what the bank hopes to see coming out of COP27.