Back to the complete issue
Tuesday, 2 June 2020

Egypt’s GDP to grow 2.5% this fiscal year, 3.7% in the next one -FocusEconomics

Egypt’s GDP to end current fiscal year with 2.5% growth, record 3.7% in FY2020-2021 -FocusEconomics: Egypt’s GDP growth is expected to clock in at 2.5% this fiscal year, which wraps on 31 June, according to revised forecasts from Spain-based FocusEconomics picked up by the local press. The research firm expects growth to rebound in FY2020-2021 to 3.7%, suggesting a faster recovery from covid-19 than the one the Madbouly government is currently forecasting. “Going forward, forecasts from both the government and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists point to a clear economic deterioration, most notably from March, when Egyptian authorities began imposing containment measures,” and beyond April, which was the first full month with measures in place.

FocusEconomics is more optimistic about the next fiscal year than the government is. State planners expect the economy to expand by 4% this fiscal year and are pricing in a sharper slowdown FY2020-2021 which could see the economy growing at only 2% if the pandemic continues into December.

Either way, there is consensus (so far) that the recovery will begin in the second half of the year, a point stressed by Planning and Economic Development Minister Hala El Said in a recent webinar with AmCham and EBRD lead economist Bassem Kamar.

Enterprise is a daily publication of Enterprise Ventures LLC, an Egyptian limited liability company (commercial register 83594), and a subsidiary of Inktank Communications. Summaries are intended for guidance only and are provided on an as-is basis; kindly refer to the source article in its original language prior to undertaking any action. Neither Enterprise Ventures nor its staff assume any responsibility or liability for the accuracy of the information contained in this publication, whether in the form of summaries or analysis. © 2022 Enterprise Ventures LLC.

Enterprise is available without charge thanks to the generous support of HSBC Egypt (tax ID: 204-901-715), the leading corporate and retail lender in Egypt; EFG Hermes (tax ID: 200-178-385), the leading financial services corporation in frontier emerging markets; SODIC (tax ID: 212-168-002), a leading Egyptian real estate developer; SomaBay (tax ID: 204-903-300), our Red Sea holiday partner; Infinity (tax ID: 474-939-359), the ultimate way to power cities, industries, and homes directly from nature right here in Egypt; CIRA (tax ID: 200-069-608), the leading providers of K-12 and higher level education in Egypt; Orascom Construction (tax ID: 229-988-806), the leading construction and engineering company building infrastructure in Egypt and abroad; Moharram & Partners (tax ID: 616-112-459), the leading public policy and government affairs partner; Palm Hills Developments (tax ID: 432-737-014), a leading developer of commercial and residential properties; Mashreq (tax ID: 204-898-862), the MENA region’s leading homegrown personal and digital bank; Industrial Development Group (IDG) (tax ID:266-965-253), the leading builder of industrial parks in Egypt; Hassan Allam Properties (tax ID:  553-096-567), one of Egypt’s most prominent and leading builders; and Saleh, Barsoum & Abdel Aziz (tax ID: 220-002-827), the leading audit, tax and accounting firm in Egypt.