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Tuesday, 2 June 2020

Egypt’s GDP to grow 2.5% this fiscal year, 3.7% in the next one -FocusEconomics

Egypt’s GDP to end current fiscal year with 2.5% growth, record 3.7% in FY2020-2021 -FocusEconomics: Egypt’s GDP growth is expected to clock in at 2.5% this fiscal year, which wraps on 31 June, according to revised forecasts from Spain-based FocusEconomics picked up by the local press. The research firm expects growth to rebound in FY2020-2021 to 3.7%, suggesting a faster recovery from covid-19 than the one the Madbouly government is currently forecasting. “Going forward, forecasts from both the government and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists point to a clear economic deterioration, most notably from March, when Egyptian authorities began imposing containment measures,” and beyond April, which was the first full month with measures in place.

FocusEconomics is more optimistic about the next fiscal year than the government is. State planners expect the economy to expand by 4% this fiscal year and are pricing in a sharper slowdown FY2020-2021 which could see the economy growing at only 2% if the pandemic continues into December.

Either way, there is consensus (so far) that the recovery will begin in the second half of the year, a point stressed by Planning and Economic Development Minister Hala El Said in a recent webinar with AmCham and EBRD lead economist Bassem Kamar.

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