Sign of the times: Finance nerds are getting “creative.” Happy Thursday, everyone, and welcome to what we think is (almost) the slowest news morning in recorded history. Or at least in the five or so years that we’ve been around.

On the plus side: The first week of Ramadan is now drawing to an end, and with it the workweek. We hope you’re all looking forward to a restful weekend.

Don’t miss: This morning’s very honest WFH Routine column, wherein Halan CCO Mohamed Aboul Naga talks about what we all know, but are too-often reticent to admit in public: [redacted] is hard right now.

It’s that time of the month again: Here are the key news triggers to keep your eye on as we kick off the month of May:

• PMI figures for Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE will land on Tuesday, 5 May;
• Foreign reserves figures for April will be released during the first week of May;
• Inflation figures for April are out on Sunday, 10 May;
• Amendments to the Banking Act are expected to come up for discussion by the House of Representatives’ general assembly next week.

The Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee next meets on Thursday, 14 May to review key interest rates. The committee left rates unchanged at its last meeting on 2 April.

Not that most of us will feel it, but Saturday is a national holiday for both private- and public-sector employees in observance of Labour Day, which this year falls on Friday, according to a cabinet statement.

The markets today: Asian markets are comfortably in the green this morning at the opening bell, while futures point to similar starts to the day in Europe and the United States later today. The benchmark EGX30 was up 1.3% yesterday in heavy trading, leaving the exchange down 24.5% since the start of the cursed year that is 2020.

So, when do we eat? Maghrib prayers are at 6:32pm and you’ll have until 3:37am to finish caffeinating. Fajr is coming one minute earlier every day through the end of the Holy Month.

COVID-19 IN EGYPT-

Egypt has now disclosed a total of 5,268 confirmed cases of covid-19 after the Health Ministry reported 226 new infections yesterday. The ministry also said that another 21 people had died from the virus, taking the death toll to 380. We now have a total of 1,712 confirmed cases that have since tested negative for the virus after being hospitalized or isolated, of whom 1,335 have fully recovered.

The new IMF loans Egypt is seeking won’t have the same reform strings attached as our last facility, Prime Minister Moustafa El Madbouly said yesterday, according to a cabinet statement. Madbouly stressed that the one-year rapid financing instrument and a separate stand-by arrangement for which the government is currently in talks will not drive inflation up or any carry other downsides for the average citizen.

The Medical Syndicate is raising flags about over-reliance on what it called “very low accuracy” covid-19 rapid testing kits, according to a statement. The syndicate noted that the World Health Organization recommends the use of PCR as the most accurate tool at hand to diagnose the virus. Medical staff should only be allowed to leave quarantine hospitals after two negative RT-PCR tests administered 48-hours apart, the syndicate said, and instead the Health Ministry is overly-reliant on rapid antibody tests that it said have high false-positive / false-negative rates. The story is getting wide play in the domestic press: Youm7 | Ahram Gate | Masrawy | Ahram Online.

WFP to provide food support to Egyptians most at risk: The Local Development Ministry will sign an agreement with the UN’s World Food Programme to support day laborers whose livelihood was threatened by measures to contain the virus and other vulnerable individuals in rural areas, Minister Mahmoud Shaarawy said. Shaarawy did not say when the agreement would be signed, or the value of the agreement.

Egypt’s Premier League season could get back on track as early as mid-July under a proposal the Egyptian Football Association (EFA) sent to the Sports Ministry, EFA Vice President Gamal Mohamed Ali said on ONTime Sports (watch, runtime: 3:57). The EFA is now waiting for the ministry’s decision on the proposal.

DONATIONS-

6th of October University donated EGP 10 mn to the government, according to a cabinet statement.

Real estate developer Castle Development donated EGP 1 mn, including 500k to support day laborers and EGP 500k to the Tahya Misr fund, according to a cabinet statement.

ON THE GLOBAL FRONT-

The US’ longest growth run on record just screeched to a halt, with real GDP contracting by a 4.8% annualized rate in the first quarter of the year, the Commerce Department said. Consumer spending, the biggest component of the economy’s broadest gauge, was dragged down 7.6% during the quarter thanks to shuttered malls, bars, and restaurants. “Today’s GDP numbers are weak, but in line with expectations as a result of the COVID-19-driven disruptions,” US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said.

PSA- The worst is yet to come for the US economy. Let’s keep this brief, shall we? The US economy contracted in 1Q2020 at a faster rate than at the peak of the global financial crisis — and the worst recession “in our lifetime” is still to come, pundits suggest. Enter US Federal Reserve boss Jay Powell, who Reuters said “dashed lingering hopes for a fast rebound from the coronavirus pandemic, saying the U.S. economy could feel the weight of consumer fear and social distancing for a year or more in a prolonged climb from a deepening hole.” Powell was speaking at the end of a two-day Fed meeting at which its open markets committee left interest rates on hold.

Powell warned of lasting “medium-term” economic fallout, the Financial Times added.

How bad could it get? Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal agree we are staring down the barrel of a recession of “unprecedented” proportions. The prognosticators at IHS Janes expect the US economy to contract “at a 37% annual rate from April to June, which would represent the biggest drop since quarterly records began in 1947.” The chief economist at Credit Suisse suggests “we are heading for the largest contraction in GDP since the Great Depression.”

Patients given remdisivir recovered 31% faster than those given a placebo, prompting Anthony Fauci, the top US infectious diseases official, to declare that “this will be the standard of care.” Fauci likened the results of clinical trials to a watershed moment in 1986 when “when we were struggling for [meds] for HIV and we had nothing.” Reuters and Bloomberg have the story and you can read drugmaker Gilead’s statement here.

Tech won earnings season this quarter, handily kicking the [redacted] of companies that traffic in real-world goods and services.

Losers in yesterday’s tourney: Old-economy giants including PepsiCo, Coca Cola, and Starbucks have reported their first quarterly drop in same-store sales in almost 11 years — and worse is probably still to come in 2Q. BP’s first quarter profits were down by 67% as the virus slashed oil demand globally, while carmaker Ford reported a net loss of USD 2 bn in the first quarter as most operations were grounded to a halt by the pandemic.

The winners: Facebook’s net income more than doubled to USD 4.9 bn in 1Q2020. El Face saw a decline in demand for advertising but witnessed increased engagement as people in isolation rely heavier on its products to connect with others. Microsoft saw its net profits rise 22% to USD 10.8 bn, mainly driven by higher demand on its cloud services. And unexpectedly, next-gen carmaker Tesla turned in a net profit of USD 16 mn in the first quarter with a stable outlook.

High-rollers are waiting for equities to fall another 5-20% before they re-enter the market, according to UBS research cited by Bloomberg. Less than one quarter of the ultra-wealthy folks polled think it’s time to buy back into equities.

With the US discussing how to “exit” lockdown, the usual suspects think demand for oil will recover, driving WTI June contracts to USD 16 / bbl yesterday from USD 12 / bbl, the Financial Times notes. Still: Expect volatility in the coming period, folks.

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority has delayed the sale of USD 2 bn-worth of private-equity fund stakes from its portfolio after failing to reach consensus on the sale value with investors, Bloomberg reported. The world’s third largest sovereign wealth fund will give the transaction another shot in 2H2020.

GCC fiscal support insufficient, says Oxford Economics: Gulf countries’ fiscal response to the economic fallout from the pandemic falls short of those from comparable economies in Europe and Asia, with policies “too small and narrow,” say experts at Oxford Economics according to Bloomberg.

BEYOND COVID-

NMC founder BR Shetty claims he was victim of fraud by other execs: The founder of London-listed Emirati healthcare company NMC, Bavaguthu Raghuram Shetty, claims a preliminary investigation into the company found that he was a victim of “serious fraud and wrongdoing” by other executives, according to a statement picked up by Bloomberg and the Financial Times. Fraudulent accounts, powers of attorney, loans, personal guarantees, and companies were all used or created under Shetty’s name to facilitate fraud, the Indian entrepreneur alleges. The company has revealed more than USD 4 bn of previously undisclosed debt and claimed to have found evidence of fraud after US short seller Muddy Waters questioned its finances last December. The company was forced into administration earlier this month by Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, one of its major lenders.

Shetty also faces accusations of financial wrongdoing on his watch at high-profile fintech startup Finablr, which last month announced it was investigating charges of impropriety and lined up bankruptcy advisors. Key subsidiary Travelex has since put itself up for sale.

It’s Making It Day: The latest episode of season two of our podcast on building a great business in Egypt is out today. Look for new episodes dropping every Thursday this Ramadan.

Laila and Adel Sedky, co-founders of Nola: Our second episode follows the story of two siblings transforming a small teal-colored cupcake shop in 2010 into a fast-growing purveyor of whimsical sweet treats spanning seven cities and 25 stores. We are, of course, talking about Laila and Adel Sedky, the founder and CEO respectively, behind the household name Nola.

How to survive the end of a trend: While a sharp pivot can be difficult and costly, it is sometimes necessary to make sure your business survives — especially when it was originally built on a trend whose shelf life is approaching its end. Laila and Adel spoke with us on repositioning their brand and experimenting with new products.

Tap or click here to listen to the episode on: Our website | Apple Podcast | Google Podcast | Omny. We’re also available on Spotify, but only for non-MENA accounts. Subscribe to Making It here.