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Thursday, 5 September 2019

What we’re tracking on 5 September 2019

We spoke too soon yesterday: The news slowdown is not quite over yet, and this morning is proof that the summer lull is still very real. We know we’ll regret these words in a few weeks’ time.

Our My Morning Routine section is back this morning after a brief hiatus with Methanex Egypt’s Manal El-Jesri. The interview is in the final section of the issue.

The Central Bank of Egypt and Capmas will release monthly inflation figures for August next week. Inflation fell unexpectedly to a four-year low of 8.7% in July.

Conferences and gatherings:

The Suez Canal Conference for Investment could be pushed to 2020, EU Ambassador to Egypt Ivan Surkos said, according to Al Mal. The conference was originally scheduled to take place in November.

A shout-out to market sage Mohamed El Erian, who has been named senior global fellow at the Lauder Institute and part-time professor of practice at the Wharton School.


The doomsday prophecies claiming that recession is nigh in the US of A are not certain to come true and tend to ignore the bigger picture for the economy, Neil Irwin writes for the New York Times. While the US’ manufacturing sector has taken a hit from the trade war with China, they actually comprise a “relatively small share” of the country’s economy. A much bigger player, and thus a much more important factor to look at, is consumer spending, which has been propelling America’s economic growth even as businesses are not as bullish. “If business investment drops severely, it could translate into layoffs and a weaker labor market and thus weaker consumer spending. But there are recent episodes in which business investment shrank but consumer spending kept growing,” Irwin notes.

And about the Fed’s decisions: The US Federal Reserve’s shift to monetary easing in the beginning of 2018 could also still kick in over the next several months, as it usually has a delayed effect, Irwin says. It’s also important to understand that everyone keeps an eye on the Fed’s monetary policy in the immediate future, but “it’s not just actual interest rate adjustments that matter — it is how markets perceive the future direction of policy that affects how hard or easy it will be for businesses and consumers to get money.”

Hong Kong leader finally backs down on controversial extradition bill: Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam has withdrawn an extradition bill that ignited months of demonstrations against her leadership, according to Reuters. Lam said she shelved the legislation to bring the city back from a “highly vulnerable and dangerous” place. The extradition bill would have enabled Hong Kong citizens to be extradited to China to face trial.

In global miscellany this morning:

  • British MPs blocked Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s motion to trigger a snap election after voting through legislation that would prevent the government from leaving the European Union without an agreement on 31 October, according to the New York Times.
  • Google to pay USD 170 mn for unauthorized underage data collection: Google has agreed to pay USD 170 mn to settle allegations that YouTube, its subsidiary, had collected information on children’s viewing habits without parental consent, reports Reuters.

Think twice before you pick up that vape: US health professionals are investigating an unknown respiratory disease thought to be linked to vaping, according to Vox. More than 200 vape users have so far been affected by the illness, the cause of which continues to elude doctors who have not been able to find a link between the cases.

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