It’s a big day as we prepare to slide into the weekend, with blockbuster news for the banking industry, confirmation that electricity price hikes will be (slightly) more modest than some had expected, a quiet fintech M&A, and word the government is looking to possibly float infrastructure bonds.

What’s more: The notion of a new (tech?) “cold war” between the US and China has caught fire in the global business press.

Need convincing that business thinks we’re in the early days of a New Cold War between the world’s two superpowers? Look no further than CNBC’s homepage this morning (above) — it’s one of the best barometers for what’s bedeviling Wall Street at any given moment. The emerging narrative is that the Washington-Beijing clash over trade and technology are actually fronts in a new cold war.

ESSENTIAL READING on the subject:

• The beginning: Most folks are linking to “The Tech Cold War has begun” in Bloomberg Opinion this week as the origin of the notion, but a better starting point is this piece in the New York Times, which we picked up in spring of 2018.
• Nouriel “Dr. Doom” Roubini sees prolonged trade conflict between the US and China triggering a process of de-globalization as it divides the world into two competing blocks. A “full-scale cold war will ensue [if the two sides don’t manage for the long term] and a hot one (or a series of proxy wars) cannot be ruled out,” he writes for the Guardian.
• America’s allies need to start contingency planning, suggests Martin Wolf in the Financial Times, pointing out that while the US and China account for around 30% of world imports, that means 70% of the global market is where other nations should be looking.
• This isn’t new: The new “Iron Curtain” in the Tech Cold War has been a long time in the making, Li Yuan argues in the New York Times.
• We’re all going to suffer: The escalation of the trade war could wipe out USD 600 bn from the world’s economy, the OECD warns. (Business Insider) (We have more in this morning’s Macro Picture, below.)

Markets can’t rely on the Fed to pick up the pieces: Market complacency about the escalating trade fight between the US and China is unnerving JPMorgan’s chief EMEA strategist Karen Ward, who warns in the Financial Times that the Federal Reserve will not be able to support growth if China intensifies its trade restrictions. “If the Fed were to keep pumping demand while political risks are discouraging investment, the result will be unbearable pressure on the labor market and further upward pressure on wages. US corporate profit margins, a huge contributor to the growth in US earnings, will come under pressure,” she writes.

Is there any non-China, non-US news out there? Not really. The only headline of consequence in the global business press outside of the US-China ‘cold war’ is news that the UK may be heading for a second referendum on Brexit. (Financial Times | Reuters)

Closer to home: It’s interest rate day tomorrow: The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet tomorrow to review key interest rates. Our poll showed on Sunday a consensus among 12 economists that the CBE will leave rates on hold. Meanwhile, three of the 14 economists polled by Reuters yesterday predicted the bank would move to cut rates by 50-100 bps. The MPC cut the overnight deposit and lending rates by 100 bps to 15.75% and 16.75% in February.

Dates to pencil into your diaries:

• AmCham will hold its annual general meeting and iftar on Tuesday, 28 May, with US Charge d’Affaires Thomas Goldberger delivering a speech on the US’ relationship with Egypt. AmCham members can register for the event here.
• The Saudis are in town next month to talk real estate investment: The Egyptian Businessmen’s Association will be hosting next month 20 Saudi-based real estate development companies exploring investment prospects.
• The UAE and Saudi Arabia will attend Trump’s Manama summit, which is being billed as an “economic gathering to roll out the White House’s Mideast peace plan, Axios reports. The meeting will take place 25-26 June.

No first-day pop? No worries: The performance of a company’s shares in its trading debut is rarely indicative of its future performance, analysis by the FT suggests. The paper examined data from all US IPOs raising more than USD 1 bn since 2000 and found that first-day performance isn’t a reliable gauge of a stock’s lifetime performance. Facebook, for example, had an uninspired first day of trading but its market cap has since risen fivefold. Infineon meanwhile jumped 127% on debut but has since plunged to around half of its IPO price.

It’s a big first day for: KSA’s Arabian Centres, which is scheduled to make its debut on the Tadawul this morning after closing the kingdom’s third-largest IPO ever — and its first with a stabilization mechanism to support aftermarket performance. Inktank Communications, the region’s leading investor relations firm and our parent company, is IR advisor to Arabian Centres.

What We’re Tracking Today, the Ramadan edition:

MUST READ- It’s never too late to start a brilliant career, in the Wall Street Journal, which argues that “our obsession with early achievement shortchanges people of all ages. Research shows that our brains keep developing deep into adulthood and so do our capabilities.” Creativity, innovation and lasting achievement are possible at every age, argues the accomplished business journalist, author and late-bloomer Rich Karlgaard in a piece adapted from his book Late Bloomers: The power of patience in a world obsessed with early achievement. The piece is worth reading for this list alone:

• Famous movie villain Alan Rickman owned a graphic design studio for years before he got his first taste of fame at 42 for his role as Hans Gruber in “Die Hard”;
• Tom Siebel founded his first big tech company, Siebel Systems, at 41, and his second, C3, at 57;
• International star Andrea Bocelli began singing opera when he was 34;
• Martha Stewart was 35 when she started her catering business in a friend’s basement, and 42 when her first book of recipes was published.

A pre-iftar reading list to kill time between your post-workout shower and the breaking of the fast:

• CEOs share their most helpful (and unconventional) career advice should be required reading not just for fresh grads, but for the olds, too. Among the gems from CEOs of companies including Hyatt Hotels, Lyft, Clif Bar: Empathy is the must-have skill — and “No one likes a phony. Don’t be a different person at work.” (Wall Street Journal)
• 8 Simple Tips to Live Longer and Healthier, among them: Move, eat real foods, call your friends, skip the supplements, get eight hours of sleep a night, don’t smoke and don’t drink so much. (Outside magazine)
• Let go of your grudges. They’re doing you no good. They’re bad for your brain, your blood pressure, your immune system… (New York Times)

Bankers: Ever fantasize about starting your own boutique firm? You’re not alone, as this short YouTube video from the Financial Times suggests (watch, runtime: 1:59). There’s also a brief companion piece here in the salmon-colored paper.

TECH PSA- Apple is making changes (again) to its MacBook butterfly keyboard after user complaints of missed keystrokes and double-pressed keys. The change is part of a model upgrade that also brings eight-core processors to MacBook Pros for the first time. (9to5 Mac | WSJ)

RAMADAN PSA- Bank hours are at 9am-2pm for employees; doors are open from 9:30am until 1:30pm for customers. The trading day at the EGX runs 10:00am until 1:30pm.

So, when do we eat? Maghrib is at 6:45pm CLT today in Cairo. You’ll have until 3:16am tomorrow morning to caffeinate / finish your sohour.