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Sunday, 5 May 2019

What we’re tracking on 05 May 2019

We generally try to avoid having to open an edition of Enterprise with a “sorry we goofed” apology — but sometimes needs must…

We wrote on Friday in this month’s edition of Your Wealth that Ramadan will begin on Sunday, 5 May. Ramadan will of course actually begin tomorrow: Monday, 6 May. The story has since been updated on our website. We’re not quite sure how we got this wrong, having gotten it right for nearly a month (and as recently as Thursday’s issue). On that note: Savor that last morning coffee, folks.

Banks and the EGX go to shortened hours starting tomorrow.

Plan your getaway now: The Eid El Fitr should start on Wednesday, 5 June, meaning we will have a four-day weekend marking the unofficial start of summer. But the wags (read: those in pre-emptive caffeine and / or nicotine withdrawal) are pining for a 29-day month, with Youm7 having suggested we could be looking at Eid starting on Tuesday, 4 June.


The head of the World Bank is in town. Newly-appointed World Bank President David Malpass is in Aswan today to visit the Benban solar park, having spent yesterday in Cairo talking investment with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Investment Minister Sahar Nasr. We have more in this morning’s Speed Round and in Last Night’s Talk Shows. We’ll also have full coverage tomorrow from on the ground in Benban.

Key events coming up this week:

  • It’s PMI day: The purchasing managers’ index for Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE is due out today at 6:15am CLT. You’ll find it here at the appointed hour.
  • Foreign reserves: The CBE should announce Egypt’s net foreign reserves figure for the end of April imminently.
  • Inflation: Monthly inflation figures are due out at the end of the week. Annual headline urban inflation eased slightly in March to 14.2%, down from 14.4% the previous month.

Emerging-market central banks continue easing: Rate cuts by emerging-market central banks exceeded hikes for the third consecutive month in April, Reuters says. A total of three net rate cuts were made across 37 emerging markets last month, the same as in February and March.

Riyadh is pushing ahead with bond market reform: Saudi Arabia will for the first time allow retail investors to buy sovereign sukuks under reforms announced by government officials in April, the FT reports. The Finance Ministry is looking to make it easier for retail investors to purchase sukuk by issuing them in portions of SAR 1,000 instead of the current SAR 1 mn. “We want to encourage savings; our market has very little savings schemes,” Finance Minister Mohammed Al Jabaan told the FT.

But investors will need more protection before entering the Saudi government bond market, Daniel Vaughan, manager research director at Morningstar Investment Management Europe, told International Adviser (paywall). “Anything that makes a market broader and deeper should be encouraged, however with retail investors becoming more involved we hope that the move will be accompanied by a specific regulatory framework to protect investors and ensure proper access to information about risks,” he said.


Unemployment in the US has fallen to the lowest level since 1969, Reuters reports April saw a higher-than-anticipated 263k jobs created and a slow-but-steady rise in average wages. The upside for EM: The odds of the Federal Reserve changing its policy stance and raising interest rates anytime soon just went down again. The Financial Times also has the story.

Too good to be true? The Washington Post wonders whether experts are missing subtle warning signs.


Sign of the times #1: One US hedge fund manager is warning that we could be looking at Vixmageddon, grumbling that his competitors are too complacency about the notion that global markets will remain calm through the end of this year. “It’s incredible how short the memory of the market is.” Truer words…

Sign of the times #2: “Investors appear to be wary of frontier markets, pulling some USD 219 mn out of frontier-focused funds in March,” the WSJ’s weekly frontier column suggests, quoting a Citi frontier analyst as saying, “The USD 219 mn outflow, driven by active frontier funds, was the biggest this year and indicates that fundraising is off to a challenging start in 2019.”


Other international business headlines you should know about this morning:

  • A “secretive” tech fund at Goldman Sachs is doing more than future-proofing the bank — it’s generated returns of 25% or more p.a. in each of the last seven years. (CNBC)
  • There’s lots of M&A activity in the fragmented US wealth management sector, where more than 12,500 wealth management companies manage AUM of about USD 83 tn. (FT)
  • Warren Buffett talked death and profits at his annual shareholder meeting, but the 88-year-old Oracle of Omaha largely sidestepped the question of who will succeed him. He also touched on the company’s (oddly talked-about) decision to buy Amazon shares. (Bloomberg | FT | CNBC)

And in miscellany this morning:

  • We need more exclamation marks in email, New York magazine’s The Cut argues. It’s indefensible. And also probably correct.
  • We’re space nerds, so we love NASA’s short Instagram video on what to expect in the skies in May. (Instagram, runtime: 2:52)

PSA #1- Absolve yourself. “You may have been passed up for a promotion. You may have lost a job. You may have spent years in a Ph.D. program. You may have forfeited a marriage. You may have missed your kids’ grow up. You may have squandered your health. … It doesn’t matter.” A top US time-management coach talks in the New York Times about how to let yourself out of a jail of regret.

PSA #2- Look for the mercury to hit 36°C today and 37°C tomorrow before cooling to 28-31°C through Friday.

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