The global economy is in a “delicate moment,” the IMF says: The global economy is in a “delicate moment”, IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath has said in the fund’s latest World Economic Outlook (pdf), which predicts growth to slow to 3.3% this year, down from 3.6% in 2018. Growth is expected to return to 3.6% in 2020 as conditions begin to improve in the second half of the year, fueled by Chinese stimulus, brighter market sentiment, and an end to temporary drags on growth in the euro area. Conditions in stressed emerging markets such as Turkey and Argentina will also begin to stabilize. Global growth is expected to plateau at 3.6% beyond 2020.

The problem is advanced economies: Slowing labour productivity and labor force growth will hinder growth in advanced economies, while the increasing weight of China and India props up global expansion rates, the IMF said. Growth in emerging and developing economies will stabilize below 5%.

A further escalation of trade tensions and the threat of a chaotic British exit from the EU continue to pose risks, the fund warned. This could lead to a sharp deterioration in market sentiment and tighter financial conditions. Uncertainty over Italy’s fiscal position and a reassessment of US monetary policy present additional dangers, it said. “If any of the major risks materialize, then the expected recoveries in stressed economies, export-dependent economies, and highly indebted economies may not occur,” Gopinath said.

What are the forecasts for Egypt? Growth is forecast at 5.5% in 2019 and 5.9% in 2020, the current account deficit is expected to drop to 2.4% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020, while inflation will fall to 14.5% in 2019 and 12.3% in 2020.