What we’re tracking on 29 October 2018
Sometimes Mondays roar to life. Others, we’re left wondering, “We got out of bed early / worked overnight for this?” It’s a case of the latter today, at home and abroad. More often than not, that means we’re in for a rather busy day.
Spooky pre-Halloween fact: “With European and emerging market equities already down for the year before October’s turbulence, analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch estimate that just over 60 per cent of global stocks are now in a bear market. There are plenty of considerations for those investors having to judge whether this provides a buying opportunity.” (Read)
Khashoggi? Saudi is too big to ignore, investors say: Investors bullish on KSA see that the murder of Washington Post contributor Jamal Khashoggi will not hurt the kingdom’s investment prospects as the country is simply too big to ignore. This comes despite the KSA main index’s 30-day historical volatility climbing to the highest since 2016 and the yield on its USD 5 bn worth of 10-year notes rising to a record. “It will probably create some negative headlines but at the end of the day, people will forget after a while and it will have minimum impact on Saudi Arabia’s economic activities and also the credit quality,” a senior money manager at Hong Kong-based Nexus Investment Advisors tells Bloomberg. “It’s the fear over potential actions from the international community that’s driving the market now,” says Mohamed Elmi, an EM money manager at Federated Investors UK. “Nothing changes concerning the overriding credit quality of the overall Saudi credit complex,” he added.
Speed-bump on the road to a post-oil future? Perhaps the most visible long-term economic impact of the Khashoggi murder could be the derailing of Mohammed bin Salman’s push away from big oil. Leading oil companies made a strong showing at last week’s “Davos in the Desert” conference — far stronger than the tech and IT sector, which the Crown Prince had been wanting to draw. Out of USD 50 bn in new transactions and agreements, USD 30 bn have been in the traditional sectors of oil and refining, notes Reuters.
Oh, and don’t call the Future Investment Summit “Davos in the Desert” — that apparently makes the World Economic Forum people most unhappy.
When research gives private equity a rash: US private equity players are flexing their muscles — in a dermatology journal, of all places. “Early this month, a respected medical journal published a research paper on its website that analyzed the effects of a business trend roiling the field of dermatology: the rapid entrance of private equity firms into the specialty by buying and running practices around the country. Eight days later, after an outcry from private equity executives and dermatologists associated with private equity firms, the editor of the publication removed the paper from the site. No reason was given.” Read the full story in the New York Times.
The latest on rapprochement with Israel: Just days after Benjamin Netanyahu visited Oman and met Sultan Qaboos, the national anthem of our neighbors to the east was played for the first time in Abu Dhabi after an Israeli competitor won gold at the Abu Dhabi Judo Grand Slam. More in the Jerusalem Post and on Tweeter.
Brazil has elected a far-right politician as its next president. “Jair Bolsonaro won Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday, promising to clean up politics, shrink the state and crack down on crime, in a dramatic swing away from the left in the world’s fourth-largest democracy.” (Reuters)
We’re one week out from the 5 November (re)imposition of US sanctions on Iran, and nobody quite knows how that will shake out.
Americans head to the polls in midterm elections a week from tomorrow.
In miscellany this morning:
- You can reboot your career at any age with an MBA, even if you’re in your 50s and 60s. (Financial Times)
- Family offices are attracting young investment professionals with a demonstrated interest in impact investing. (Financial Times)
Apple will announce new hardware tomorrow. The device maker is expected to unveil new iPad Pros (iPads Pro?), a successor to the MacBook Air and possibly lots more. The Verge’s Chaim Gartenberg has a solid rundown on what you can expect, and MacRumors goes even deeper. Or you can wait to be surprised tomorrow at 4pm CLT and tune in on Apple’s event page.