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Wednesday, 9 May 2018

What We’re Tracking on 9 May 2018

The biggest story of this morning: US President Donald Trump announced overnight that the US is withdrawing from the 2015 multi-country nuclear pact with Iran, calling it “one of the worst and most one-sided transactions the United States has ever entered into.” Washington will move to reinstate “the highest level” of economic sanctions against Tehran, he said. Members of the European Union are losing it, Saudi and the UAE are crowing, and Egypt is tending its knitting. We have chapter and verse in Speed Round, below.

Okay, but what does it mean for oil prices? The consensus is that prices are likely to rise. Iran raised its oil output by c. 1 mn barrels per day when sanctions were lifted in 2016, and “at least some of that” will be pulled now at the same time as oil is already north of USD 70 thanks to production cuts from OPEC and Russia, CNN notes. Reuters, meanwhile, thinks Iranian exports to Europe and Asia are at risk. Iran currently exports about 2.5 mn barrels of its 3.8 mn BOPD of production, with China, India and other Asian countries its top markets. Brent crude was up 1.9% after the announcement to USD 76.27 while WTI rose 1.6%, the Financial Times notes, quoting an analyst report that says the sanctions announcement “puts into place a scenario that could see the crude oil market tighten significantly in H2 2018 and into next year.” Bloomberg also has a decent rexplainer.

On the whole, Arab youth currently see the United States as an enemy, according to the 2018 Arab Youth Survey. In 2016, 32% of Arab youth saw the United States as an enemy. Today, that figure stands at 57%. You an explore the full survey here.

So, investing in non-public private equity general partners is now a thing, the Financial Times’ Sujeet Indap tells us this morning. Some of you won’t like the snark in the opening grafs (it made us smile), but push through: This is required reading for our subscribers in PE, whether you’re at an established firm or tending to a relative startup.

And for our readers in marketing / comms / advertising: Ousted WPP boss Martin Sorrell thinks the agency model he helped build is now broken. In the few short weeks since he left WPP, Sorrell says he has found “a better perspective on which parts of the industry were growing and adapting and which were held back by the ‘warts and problems that legacy companies have.’” He’s setting out to create a new agency that would be “more agile, more responsive, less layered, less bureaucratic, less heavy” than traditional advertising companies, he said, with a focus on technology, data and content,” according to the Financial Times. You and everyone else, brother.

Elsewhere this morning:

  • Argentina is now in talks with the IMF for some form of assistance after finding its drastic interest rate hikes failed to stop the slide of the peso. (Financial Times)
  • Slack hits 3 mn subs mark: Slack, the workplace messaging tool we have used every day since we started Enterprise to produce your morning briefing, now has more than 3 mn paid users, but won’t go public this year. (Wall Street Journal)
  • No, you cannot wear shorts to the office, gentlemen, unless “you are a park ranger and your office is a park.” But you can up your game elsewhere. (Wall Street Journal)

Odds are good your teenagers will be watching this: The trailer for season two of the gut-wrenching teen suicide series 13 Reasons Why has now been released. The second season debuts on Netflix on 18 May. You can watch the trailer here (runtime: 2:15)

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