The World Bank expects Egypt’s budget deficit to decline to 8.8% of GDP in FY2017-18, the WBG said in its Egypt Economic Outlook October 2017 (pdf). The bank attributed its outlook — one of the more optimistic ones on the deficit we’ve heard — to the economic reform program, particularly cuts to energy subsidies. “Egypt’s GDP growth is predicted to stand at 4.5 percent in 2017/18, and to grow gradually to reach 5.3 percent by 2019,” the World Bank noted.

Inflation will fall to 23.3% this fiscal year and 22.1% in FY2018-19, then drop to 14% by 2019, the World Bank says. If the current inflation rate continues, Egypt might need to tighten its fiscal policy, “which will affect the economic growth,” the World Bank said. The bank also warned against slowing down the pace of fiscal reforms so as not to affect Egypt’s credit ability in repaying international debts.

Egypt’s economic reform program is moving on the right track, said World Bank President Jim Yong Kim at a press conference on Thursday on the sidelines of the fall meetings. The government saved around USD 13 bn for low-income citizens as a result of the economic reforms, Kim added, according to Al Shorouk. He also noted that the reforms have given investors confidence in the Egyptian economy.

The next stages of the reform agenda should focus on lowering Egypt’s debt level, said IMF Mission Chief to Egypt Subir Lall at a press conference on Friday, according to Al Mal. Lall also sang Egypt’s praises at the fall meetings, reiterating that the reform program was off to a good start.

The timetable on next round of subsidy cuts will be left to the government’s discretion, said the IMF’s director for Middle East and Central Asia Department, Jihad Azour. The fund is now discussing that timetable with the Egyptian cabinet, according to Al Mal. Azour also said that the IMF delegation that will run a second review of the reform program will arrive in Cairo on 25 October and will stay on until 7 November.