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Thursday, 13 July 2017

What we’re tracking on 13 July 2017

IMF to decide on USD 1.25 bn disbursement today: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund will be meeting today to review progress on Egypt’s economic reforms ahead of voting to release the second USD 1.25 bn disbursement of the IMF’s USD 12 bn Extended Fund Facility. After some tough measures in the last few weeks — namely, the fuel and electricity subsidy cuts and the central bank’s 200 bps interest hikes — we anticipate the IMF will vote to approve the disbursement.

We have yet to hear any confirmation that the laptop ban on EgyptAir flights had indeed been lifted yesterday. While both EgyptAir and the Civil Aviation Ministry stated on Tuesday that the ban on electronics onboard cabins of flights destined to New York had been lifted as of yesterday, the US Department of Homeland Security said it would need to make further assessments before confirming. We’ll be keeping our ears to the ground. But in the meantime, If any of our readers happened to have traveled there yesterday or today, we would kindly appreciate sending us a heads up.

Speaking of the 200 bps interest rate hikes, UAE-based Arqaam Capital sees the hike as the last of the central bank’s tightening measures, and expects the CBE to cut interest rates in 3Q18, Al Mal reports. This is a tacit projection by Arqaam that the CBE should be able to meet its target of bringing inflation down to 13% by then.

Meanwhile, Banque Misr became the second of the big three state-owned banks to move interest rates yesterday. The bank raised interest rates on variable interest certificates 25-100 bps, while maintaining rates on high-yield deposit certificates, Youm7 reports. The National Bank of Egypt will hold its Alco (assets and liabilities committees meetings) today, according to Arab Finance.

Canada joins the global interest rate hike party: The Bank of Canada raised interest rates for the first time in nearly seven years, joining the US Federal Reserve in leading a monetary policy shift across major industrialised countries in response to better global economic growth, writes Roger Blitz for the Financial Times. Analysts say the move was done to curb inflation. The CAD hit a 12-month high against the USD as a result. Meanwhile, US markets interpreted US Fed Chairman Janet Yellen’s remarks yesterday that the US’s persistently subdued inflation could raise questions about the Federal Reserve’s current path of gradually raising interest rates as “dovish” and signalling that the next interest rate hike this year is some ways down the road.

Inflation-adjusted emerging market bond yields have risen to their highest level since at least 2004, despite an increasingly desperate “hunt for yield” on the part of global investors, the salmon-colored paper reported. The gap between real yields in emerging and developed markets also hit its highest level for at least 13 years. This is no thanks to Latin America, whose frequent corruption scandals have subdued returns on their debts, and have seen EM funds such as Pictet Asset Management, Neuberger Berman Group LLC and RBC Global Asset Management end 1H17 as the worst performers in their class, according to Bloomberg.

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