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Sunday, 13 November 2016

The Donald isn’t good for EM, but fund managers are still overweight Egypt

Donald Trump isn’t good for emerging markets. “Investors are dumping assets in emerging markets around the world, as Donald Trump’s election victory upends a long-profitable trade,” writes the Wall Street Journal (paywall) noting a broad sell-off of EM equities and currencies on Friday. Adds the paper: “Investors are expected to pour a net USD $157 bn into emerging markets by the end of the year, according to the Institute for International Finance, seeking relief from the rock-bottom yields prevailing elsewhere around the world. But Mr. Trump’s election has changed that calculus. His emphasis on infrastructure spending and tax cuts has sparked a rally in U.S. stocks and sent benchmark Treasury yields sharply higher. With better yields now available in developed markets and expectations that the Federal Reserve could have to raise key interest rates more aggressively, rather than the slow and gradual approach many analysts had been expecting, investors have a more compelling case to keep their money in the U.S.”

Worse news for those of us in EMEA: The money chasing EM opportunities is flowing eastward, writes the Financial Times (paywall), noting that, “Frontier equity fund managers have dramatically increased their holdings of Asian stocks, with the continent overtaking the Europe, Middle East and Africa region for the first time as the dominant bloc. The move underlines the rise of Asia as the pre-eminent domain of the emerging world, leaving Latin America and Emea floundering in its wake.”

And wonderfully enough, fund managers are overweight Egypt, according to a chart accompanying the FT piece provided by Copley Fund Research. A larger version of the chart is available on our website, while the full FT piece is accessible from the link above.

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