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Sunday, 16 October 2016

Saudi reserves actually arrived in September, Ismail says, as rift with KSA continues

Saudi Arabia’s deposit at the Central Bank of Egypt actually arrived in September, Prime Minister Sherif Ismail told Reuters. This means that the USD 2 bn deposit showed up in the announced USD 19.6 bn September reserve figure and prior to Aramco’s suspension of fuel shipments in October — and before Egypt’s vote for the Russian-backed resolution on Syria at the UN Security Council. “Egypt is also in talks with China. An IMF official said during its annual meeting last week that the IMF and Egypt had made ‘good progress’ on securing the funding but did not specify how much might still be needed,” Reuters adds. Banking sources speaking to AMAY suggested that CBE Governor Tarek Amer was the unnamed senior government official who made it public the deposit had arrived without saying when, aiming to downplay the significance of the rift between Saudi Arabia and Egypt in the media.

Aramco’s suspension of fuel shipments to Egypt has nothing to do with Egypt’s votes in the UN Security Council, President Abdel Fattah El Sisi said in a speech on Thursday. Egypt’s decision to vote for rival resolutions was simply part of Cairo’s bit to work toward a ceasefire in Syria, Al Shorouk reported. El Sisi did not say why the shipments were suspended, but noted they were part of a commercial agreement. The President also said Egypt has the steps necessary to ensure an uninterrupted flow.

Whatever is going on, El Sisi isn’t backing down, calmly declaring:“There are attempts to pressure Egypt but it won’t kneel before anyone but God.” Watch the section in question (run time: 2:15), or catch the speech in full (run time: 28:48).

No rift with Saudi on flights: Meanwhile, the Civil Aviation Authority is at pains trying to hammer that there is no “problem” with Saudi aviation authorities approving the private Egyptian airline flight schedules, according to its chief Hany El Adawy, Al Mal reports. Coordination between the two sides is ongoing and companies will be notified when schedules are approved, he added. The news follows reports last week claiming Saudi had delayed approving Egyptian schedules as part of the ongoing dispute.

Flap getting international attention: The global business press has taken note of the brewing flap. The Financial Times is out with a single piece, but the WSJ has given it blanket coverage with no less than three pieces as of this morning. The announcement on Wednesday of USD 2 bn from Saudi anchored the first Wall Street Journal piece on the subject, setting up a much deeper dive by Yaroslav Trofimov for the paper headlined “Egypt Juggles Its Friendships as Russian Influence Surges: A United Nations Security Council vote shows the new regional calculus at play for Cairo.”

Saudi mouthpiece Jamal Khashoggi is all over the WSJ piece: “The government of Egypt is failing. People are seeing Egypt as a black hole, and we aren’t getting a return on investment,” Trofimov quotes him as saying. “Egypt sees Syria in a very simplistic manner—a military regime just like they have in Egypt that is also refusing democracy and Islamists.” Subtle, dude.

“Egypt Presses Oil Companies for More Time to Pay for Fuel,” the Wall Street Journal declares in its third piece, reporting that EGPC called a meeting on Wednesday to ask energy suppliers to give it six months instead of the usual three to pay for LNG, crude and petroleum product orders now in the pipeline. The Journal says its unnamed source did not specify which suppliers attended the meeting; the paper notes BP, Vitol and Trafigura as among Egypt’s top suppliers. Wood Mackenzie LNG analyst Lucas Schmitt says concerns about credit risk could see Egypt could pay a premium compared to regional countries for upcoming orders. “Egypt hasn’t yet procured LNG to meet its needs in 2017 and is expected to seek offers to deliver 120 cargoes, the largest-ever short-term tender, traders said.”

Where do we go from here? The endgame is entirely political, we believe. A delegation from Egypt is reportedly heading to Saudi this week to work on language for a UN resolution that both countries can back (among other issues). Talks on Syria in Lausanne, Switzerland, last night convened by US Secretary of State ended in deadlock. The talks — which included the foreign ministers of Russia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Qatar and Jordan — ended in deadlock, Reuters reports.

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