EGX slumps as banks face higher tax rates

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Yesterday was ugly for Egyptian equities, but Asian markets are reasonably quiet as the global trading week gets underway. The EGX30 closed down 3.8% yesterday, its worst performance since February 2016 as index heavyweight CIB sagged 6.5% in the wake of news that banks could be paying significantly more income tax if a Cabinet-backed change of accounting rules on the treatment of income from investment in government debt is made law. Only the National Bank of Kuwait and QNB Alahli bucked the trend after analysts singled them out as having the lowest exposure to Egyptian treasuries. We have the latest on the tax changes in this morning’s Speed Round (below).

Asian shares opened mixed this morning, US equity futures rose slightly after shares were battered at the close of last week and oil gained after its plunge on Friday.

Is Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in town? The Saudi royal was reportedly due to meet with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi in Cairo yesterday, Rep. Mostafa Bakry had claimed on Saturday, but MbS spent his day in Abu Dhabi, where he met with UAE Vice President and Abu Dhabi ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, according to the National, before making a pit stop in Bahrain. Our take is he arrived in Cairo overnight and is set to meet with El Sisi today. MbS arrives in Egypt as some Republican lawmakers in the United States seems poised to call on President Donald Trump to take action against Saudi Arabia for the killing of columnist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul last month, the WSJ reports. If you read last week’s extraordinary, eight-exclamation-mark statement from Trump on KSA, you know The Donald isn’t in the mood to comply.

The Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) is scheduled to hold a hearing today on Beltone’s appeal of a six-month suspension handed to its investment banking arm. The timeout was ordered amid reports some investors had complained of irregularities in the IPO of structured- and consumer-finance player Sarwa Capital.

On the House of Representatives’ calendar this week:

• The House Industry Committee will discuss this week Egypt’s agreement with the EU to cut to 0% import duties on EU-assembled cars as of 1 January 2019;
• The House Economic Committee is scheduled to discuss today legislation that would allow the prime minister send to an Investment Ministry dispute resolution committee any case that has arisen from court rulings to reverse privatization sales;
• Amendments to the Real Estate Registry Act will be introduced in the House this week.

Mining conference opens today: The Arab International Conference for Mineral Resources runs today through Wednesday. You can catch the agenda here (pdf).

The Cairo ICT expo continues today and ends Wednesday at the Egypt International Exhibition Center. More than 500 companies from 16 countries are set to participate.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May and EU leaders approved on Sunday a 585-page withdrawal treaty setting out the terms of the UK’s exit from the bloc. May will now embark on a two-week campaign to sell Britain on the Brexit pact, which is short on specifics. By March, the UK will enter a standstill transition period until December 2020. During that time, EU rules will continue to apply as the two sides hammer out trade and security aspects of the divorce.

Note for the hometown crowd: The UK is the leading non-Arab investor in Egypt and is reportedly in early talks with Egypt on a post-Brexit trade agreement. Read more about Brexit’s latest development in the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times.

Are “challenger banks” having their moment? And would that question annoy us less if they were called something else? (And no, “neo-banks” won’t do the trick.). Upstarts looking to eat a piece of the US banking industry’s pie have gotten 4x as much funding from venture capitalists this year than they did last year — and 10x more than in 2015, according to data from CB Insights. The sector is also earning attention from the likes of Goldman Sachs and payments outfit Square, the New York Times reports. Shockingly, the Times adds, “that doesn’t mean that building a profitable business will be easy.” Great business journalism it isn’t, but the pittance in deposits US banks could lose next year to the upstarts (some USD 159 bn, the Times says) may just the beginning as “everyone is looking at cards and bank accounts as the next battleground.”

In miscellany this morning:

SHOCKER OF THE DAY: “Jihadists and right-wing extremists use remarkably similar social media strategies.” From the Department of the Obvious, courtesy of the Gray Lady’s editorial board.

An Egyptian-born CIA officer may have been the key to an alleged coup attempt in Montenegro, the New York Times reports in the latest installment of its reporting on the very interesting life of Joseph Assad.

The WSJ tells you how to talk to your teenager: “When parents were accessible and calm, gave good advice and offered reciprocal disclosures about their own lives, teens reported being more apt to talk.” Read more in The right way for parents to question their teenagers.

FOOD FOR THOUGHT: A ‘three-stage life’ poses challenges to us all, writes Simon Kuper for the Financial Times, saying that the “generational clash in western societies may be sharper than the economic and racial divides with which it overlaps.”

The Financial Times’ list of 2018’s best books is now out, with categories including (but not limited to):

• Critics’ picks
• Readers’ picks
• Business
• Economics
• Technology
• Fiction

Or you can just head to the landing page for the package here for a rundown on then many categories included, from art to history and politics. Notably, former NYT Cairo bureau chief David Kirkpatrick’s Into the Hands of the Soldiersmade the list.

PSA- Celebrities join national campaign against [redacted] harassment: An online and offline media campaign is sending a clear message that [redacted] harassment isn’t just morally wrong — it’s criminal. The campaign launched with a video tagged #Speak_up produced by corporate social responsibility campaigner Basitta and featuring celebrities Menna Shalaby and Hani Adel (watch, runtime: 1:29). The campaign, which focuses on harassment in public transportation, has the backing of the ministries of transport, investment and youth, according to a press release (pdf). France, Germany, UN Women and the National Council for Women are also providing support. We’re particularly chuffed that our friends at SODIC are acting as independent sponsors of the campaign.

Leading the conversation on the airwaves last night was the Cairo ICT expo, which President Abdel Fattah El Sisi attended yesterday. CIT Minister Amr Talaat blanketed the airwaves to discuss the expo with the talking heads.

Several government authorities launched digital services during the expo, including an online feature from Egypt Post that allows people to pay off their traffic fines online, Talaat said on Al Hayah Al Youm. Marriage officiants (ma’zoun) are also apparently going to begin registering newlyweds’ data online through a database that will instantly verify the husband and wife’s age, which is meant to curb underage marriages (watch, runtime: 13:10).

About that less-than-stellar internet connection… Egypt’s internet infrastructure is in need of upgrades, Talaat acquiesced on Hona Al Asema, but the work — including replacing cables — will take some time. He maintained, however, that internet prices are “fair” and relatively inexpensive (watch, runtime: 7:51). El Hekaya’s Amr Adib also covered the expo (watch, runtime: 5:47).

Women’s issues also featured prominently on the airwaves last night, with Masaa DMC and Hona Al Asema looking at violence against women in Egypt (watch, runtime: 6:32 and  runtime: 18:22). National Population Council rapporteur Amr Hassan also talked about raising women’s awareness on family planning to help curb population growth on Hona Al Asema (watch, runtime: 15:58).

We still have no idea what’s going on with our alleged exports of stray cats and dogs. That’s the takeaway from a segment Masaa DMC’s Eman El Hosary dedicated to the issue, during which House Rep. Nadia Henry phoned in to note that she and several other members of parliament have formally requested a clarification from the government (watch, runtime: 16:03). El Hekaya’s Amr Adib joined in on the chorus by calling for an end to the alleged trade and saying that Egypt can very well do without any income from any such exports (watch, runtime: 4:37).

The Local Development Ministry is connecting homes in 12 governorates to public sewer lines, ministry spokesman Khaled Qassem told Al Hayah Al Youm. The ministry has allocated EGP 80 mn for the work, but citizens will apparently be paying for their household’s connection under an eight-year instalment scheme (watch, runtime: 4:05).

Cardiothoracic surgeon Magdi Yacoub talked about plans to set up a heart center in the new administrative capital akin to the Magdi Yacoub Foundation’s center in Aswan (watch, runtime: 2:02) in an appearance with El Hekaya’s Amr Adib.

FinMin, Federation of Egyptian Banks working toward compromise on new accounting standards? The Finance Ministry and the Federation of Egyptian Banks (FEB) agreed at a meeting yesterday that proposed amendments to the tax code that could hit bank profitability won’t be applied retroactively to the start of this year, sources tell Al Mal. The ministry had proposed a new accounting treatment that would change how banks account for their income from government debt. The move could generate as much as EGP 10 bn for the state, sources in government said over the weekend, by resulting in a double-digit increase in the effective tax rate for some institutions. Al Mal says the ministry has agreed to impose the new standards only on income generated from bank investment in government debt made after the amendments come into effect.

The ministry and federation seem likely to hold another round of talks at the end of this week. The FEB has proposed an alternative to the government’s proposal, which would instead see banks breaking down costs on the income statement in a way that could “render a lower impact … in terms of an additional tax burden.”

The federation will also participate in drafting the executive regulations for the amendments and how they will be implemented to “avoid future disputes,” according to the sources. Finance Minister Mohamed Maait had previously said that the amendments were proposed after consultations with banks and the CBE.

The amendments will make their way to the House of Representatives “soon,” Vice Minister of Finance Ahmed Kouchouk said, suggesting that there may not be all that much time to tweak the government’s proposal.

News of the change in accounting treatment saw the EGX30 post its worst day since February 2016 as index heavyweight CIB dragged the benchmark index down 3.8% yesterday. CIB shares were off 6.5% for the day. The National Bank of Kuwait and QNB Alahli were the only bank shares yesterday to buck the trend as analysts suggested they had the lowest exposure to treasuries in their peer group. Here’s how select bank shares closed yesterday:

• ADIB: -8.28%
• CIB: -6.5%
• Al Baraka: -4.06%
• Crédit Agricole: -3.61%
• Faisal Islamic Bank: -3.51%
• Suez Canal Bank: -3.50%
• HDBK: -2.74%
• NBK: flat
• QNB: +0.47%

Rising tension in Ukraine could threaten one of Egypt’s key sources of wheat and tourists: Ukraine, one of Egypt’s top suppliers of wheat, faces turmoil this morning as the country’s president, Petro Poroshenko, said overnight he would “propose that parliament declare martial law in the country after the Russian military attacked and seized three Ukrainian navy ships in the Black Sea.” The news has sparked speculation in the Western press that Poroshenko might use martial law as grounds to postpone Ukraine’s March 2019 presidential election, raising questions about what all this means for one of our more important sources of grain and tourists.

Ukraine is one of Egypt’s top three wheat suppliers (whether you go by UkrAgroConsult’s estimate of 2.5 mtpa or the much lower figure pushed by the US Department of Agriculture). Egypt inked earlier this month a memorandum of understanding with the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority to ease the flow of grain into Egyptian ports. The country was also Egypt’s second-largest inbound tourism market (at nearly 800k visitors) in 2017 and delivered a 44% increase in arrivals to Egypt in 1H2018.

Ukraine’s latest clash with Russia is front-page news this morning in the global business press as the European Union and NATO call for restraint and the UN Security Council says it will meet (FT | WSJ | Bloomberg | Reuters | CNBC).

Central bank to allow mobile lending in 1H2019 –report: The CBE allow mobile lending as early as 1H2019 as part of the country’s financial inclusion drive and bid to reduce the role of cash in the economy, sources from mobile network operators Vodafone, Orange and Etisalat told Al Mal. Mobile lending take place through e-wallets and be subject to a “cap of EGP 500,” the newspaper reports, without specifying whether that cap is per transaction or per borrower at any one time. CBE Sub-Governor for Payment Systems and Business Technology Ayman Hussein said in September that the bank was looking at introducing nano lending — providing mobile-based cash loans — as part of the third phase of its mobile banking strategy. He had said that iScore would be required to provide credit ratings for users for the system to work. The initiative looks set to have iScore assign credit ratings based on mobile phone and electricity bills and other indicators of creditworthiness even if the individual isn’t officially part of the banking system.

Israel wants to build a USD 7-8 bn pipeline to supply natural gas to Europe: Israel has signed agreements with Greece, Italy and Cyprus to supply them with natural gas through a USD 7-8 bn 2,000 km pipeline that will take some five years to build, Israeli TV news channel Hadashot reported late on Saturday, according to i24NEWS, Globes and the Times of Israel. The European Union has already provided USD 100 mn to fund a feasibility on the pipeline, which is expected to be the world’s longest and deepest, the news channel reported. Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz was quoted as saying, “For decades, we have complained about the Arab influence in Europe due to oil and gas. The export of gas to Europe will moderate this influence to a certain extent and be a counterweight to Arab power.” Israel recently signed agreements with neighboring Egypt and Jordan to supply them with natural gas for both domestic consumption and, in Egypt’s case, onward export to Europe through LNG trains.

Ready by 2025? Israel signed a MoU with the three European countries back in December 2017 and has since been in discussion with them about details of the project, Globe noted. The EU is expected to approve the agreement later this week and a final contract should be signed in February 2019 while financing for the project is expected to take a year before construction kicks off — which would mean the pipeline could be ready by 2025, Globe noted.

The first real challenge to Egypt’s role as regional energy hub — or Israeli pipe dream? Israel has been doggedly lobbying for the pipeline for years — in fact, Tel Aviv saw Egypt as a viable gas export hub only because of the technical and financial difficulty in building a 2,000 km underwater pipeline. Michael Leigh, former director-general of the European Commission, is not convinced of the project’s viability. “It’s not feasible for commercial and political reasons … it’s pie in the sky,” he said back in 2016. The pipeline will need Turkey on board, which might be challenging given the maritime border dispute it has with Cyprus.

LEGISLATION WATCH- The central bank is “putting the final touches” on the revised Banking Act and is on track to present it to the Madbouly Cabinet by the end of the year, unnamed sources said. CBE Governor Tarek Amer had discussed with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi earlier this month final amendments to the bill, which once approved by the cabinet will move to the House of Representatives for committee review and a vote in the general assembly. An earlier draft of the bill was controversial for expanding the powers of the central bank as the industry’s regulator, imposing term limits on bank managing directors, and proposing an annual tithe on bank profits to endow an industry development fund.

The government aims to launch its “Meeza” debit card in 2Q2019, beginning with subsidy payments, CIT Minister Amr Talaat told Masrawy. The government plans for Meeza to act as a single platform through which citizens would be able to access all government services amid plans to push for financial inclusion and a cashless economy. Pensioners, civil servants and subsidy recipients will be among the first groups to access the service.

Own a ‘modern’ car or have a big mobile phone bill? No subsidies for you. The government will use a wider basket of data points to determine which citizens are eligible to receive commodity subsidies in a bid to trim welfare rolls and better target subsidies to the truly needy, a Supply Ministry source tells Al Mal. According to the source, the amended standards will make ineligible citizens who pay EGP 1,200 or more per month on electricity, spend more than EGP 500 per month on mobile phone bills, pay for more than one mobile phone line, or own a “modern car.” The new standards will also take into consideration monthly rent payments and applicants’ place of residence.

Background: Supply Minister Ali El Moselhy had said earlier this month that the government is looking at scrubbing from the nation’s subsidy rolls citizens who earn EGP 7,000 or more per month. The Sisi administration is looking to revoke ration cards from some 1 mn holders who do not need to rely on food subsidies. The new eligibility criteria will officially be announced at the end of December, El Moselhy said previously.

MOVES- Tarek Fahmy (LinkedIn) is the frontrunner to become the CBE’s new sub-governor for risk management and banking supervision, an unnamed source told Masrawy. The former head of internal audit at the National Bank of Egypt will replace Tarek El Kholy, who left his post in April to join the Saudi Investment Bank as CEO.

EARNINGS WATCH- Cheese producer Domty reported a net profit of EGP 34.7 mn in 3Q2018, up from EGP 22 mn in 3Q2017, according to the company’s earnings release (pdf). Top line for the quarter reached EGP 691.2 mn, up from EGP 680 mn in 3Q2017.

CORRECTION- Mai Farid was appointed Assistant Minister of Finance for Economic Justice, while Yomna Akram Khattab became the new Assistant Minister of Finance for Fiscal Policy. We had incorrectly said yesterday that they were held the rank of vice minister. The story has since been corrected on our website. We regret the error.

Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi will be in Cairo on Tuesday, 4 December for “an important announcement,” according to an emailed statement. This will be Khosrowshahi’s (bio) first visit to Egypt as Uber CEO. The announcement will be made along with Investment Minister Sahar Nasr.

AUC’s Business Forward Anniversary event takes place on Monday, 3 December at the New Cairo Campus’ Moataz Al Alfi hall in celebration of the knowledge portal’s launch one year ago. The event, headlined The DNA of Egypt’s Economy: A Look forward, is a series of talks by a lineup of guest speakers that includes Tourism Minister Rania Al Mashat, AmCham President Tarek Tawfik, and Qalaa Holdings Managing Director Hisham ElKhazindar. You can register to attend the event here.

Have the talking heads exaggerated the impact of a strong greenback on emerging markets? A number of analysts speaking to the FT argue so, saying that while a rising USD and interest rates are a factor in the emerging market selloff, it is not the determining factor.

So what is the cause? “Saying it is all about the USD is a misrepresentation,” says Bernd Berg, global macro and foreign exchange analyst at Woodman, a Swiss asset manager. He points instead to slowing growth in China, a loss of confidence in EM as a result of turmoil in Argentina and Turkey, and the trade war between the US and China. “If there is one thing that drives the USD, it is the difference between US growth and growth in the rest of the world,” says Bhanu Baweja, deputy head of global macro strategy at UBS. “So there is correlation rather than causation, and if you say EM is all about the USD, you are really undervaluing EM’s issues.”

The data supports the view: “The sell-off during the summer was independent of the move in the USD,” Berg argues, noting that the DXY USD index was moving sideways between June and September, while EM currencies were in decline. Since then, the greenback has risen as EM currencies have remained flat. “In the USD’s upward cycle EM currencies are getting weaker, and in its downward cycle they are not appreciating,” says Baweja. “With very few exceptions, EMs have depreciated in a straight line. You quickly see that this is not a USD strength or weakness story.”

Look to the PBoC and not the Fed: Instead of looking to the US Federal Reserve, analysts should be looking to the People’s Bank of China. “The willingness and ability of Beijing to support growth through fiscal stimulus should have at least as much impact on EM assets as any decisions taken at the Fed,” writes Jonathan Wheatley.

The string of blissfully quiet mornings for Egypt in the international press continues. And yeah, we’re fully aware that the mere act of our writing that means that will change any moment now…

No single story is leading the conversation in Egypt’s three main state-run dailies this morning. Al Ahram and Al Akhbar each take note of the Arab International Conference on Mineral Resources, which President Abdel Fattah El Sisi is set to inaugurate today. Al Gomhuria’s front page (somewhat) bucks the trend, and leads with coverage of the Cairo ICT expo, which kicked off yesterday.

Africa will be home to a third of the world’s population by 2100, a bulge that can be taken as a chance to boost economy given the larger young workforce, instead of a threat, according to The Economist. Africa and Asia will account for most of the world’s population growth in the coming decades and will be home to eight of the 10 most populous countries by 2050. By 2024, India is expected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country. And Nigeria will boast the world’s fastest growing population and overtake the United States as the world’s third most-populous country by 2050. The world’s population, which has doubled in less than four decades, is expected to increase by 1 bn in 2030 to reach 8.7 bn.

Shrinking populations: Japan’s 127 mn population is forecast to shrink by about one third over the next 50 years as more people die than are born. But the fastest-shrinking populations will be in Eastern Europe, including Romania, Serbia, Poland, Ukraine and Bulgaria, due to migration, high mortality rates and low birth rates (watch: runtime: 2:46).

The Nuclear Power Plants Authority (NPPA) has nominated 200 local companies to supply Russia’s Rosatom with components for the latter’s Dabaa nuclear plant project, NPPA head, Amgad El Wakeel said according to Al Shorouk. The government will issue tenders to supply Rosatem with EUR 800-mn worth building materials, machinery, and design consulting sourced from local suppliers. Rosatem is due to officially break ground on the project in 2020.

The US’s Chevron and France’s Axens are bidding to take part in Alexandria Mineral Oils Company’s (AMOC) to upgrade its fuel refinery facility, CEO Amr Mostafa said. The two oil companies will present technical and financial proposals to AMOC by the end of December, said Mostafa, without specifying whether they will work as contractors or simply as advisers. AMOC aims to upgrade its fuel refinery facility by 2023 at a total cost of USD 1.5 bn, with an eye to doubling its production to 1.2 mn tonnes per year.

The Irrigation Ministry is planning to launch a tender in March for the construction of a EGP 1 bn water barrage in New Dairut, Irrigation Minister Mohamed Abdel Atti said, according to Al-Ahram. The ministry will select the winning offer by October 2019, with construction work set to begin during the same month. The loan, which will be financed by Japan International Cooperation Agency, was approved by Cabinet in April 2015. The project is expected to take over four years to complete.

The lowest offer received by the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) for Egypt’s first international rice tender, USD 419.7 per tonne, came from China, traders said yesterday, according to Reuters. China-based traders are willing to supply the full requested amount of 25k tonnes of rice at the quoted price.

Home appliance distributor Raya Trade is mulling between Sadat City and 6 October for the location of their USD 4 mn air conditioner factory, CEO Bassem Megahed tells Al Mal. There was no mention of the project’s timeline or annual capacity. The company is also studying a separate EGP 300 mn facility, in partnership with Samsung, to manufacture top-loading washing machines.

Etisalat Misr will begin selling fixed landline services this week, CEO Hazem Metwally said. It had signed in August the final contracts to offer the services through state-owned landline monopoly Telecom Egypt’s infrastructure. The company is planning to invest around EGP 3.5-4 bn over the next year to develop its network.

A number of local and international companies have approached local banks to finance the Alamein-Ain Sokhna electric rail project, sources told Al Shorouk. The companies are required to submit a letter of guarantee worth EGP 1 bn from an accredited bank to meet the project’s prerequisites and submit their financial offers to the Transport Ministry.

EFG Hermes’ ValU, which offers payment-on-installment solutions via a mobile app, is cooperating with mass transit app Swvl to soon provide installment plans for drivers to purchase vehicles under a new scheme endorsed by the Investment Ministry, EFG Hermes Finance CEO Walid Hassouna told Al Mal. An agreement between the two sides is expected to be signed in the first week of December, Hassouna said. Hermes’ ValU platform earlier this year signed a similar agreement with Uber in cooperation with the Arab Investment Bank (AIB).

Egypt and Sudan agreed on Sunday to set up joint military patrols to face cross-border threats both countries face from militias operating in Libya, Sudanese Chief of Staff Kamal Abdul Maaruf said following a meeting between the two countries’ defense ministers, according to Reuters. The two countries also agreed on joint agricultural and animal production investments in Sudan.

Our friend GB Auto IR Manager Andre Valavanis will be fighting for the upcoming World Boxing Federation Intercontinental Welterweight title, after securing a win over Tanzania’s Salehe Mekalekwa in a rematch on Saturday.

Egyptian squash player Mohamed El Shorbagy snagged the 2018 Hong Kong Squash Open title yesterday for the fourth time in his career after beating fellow Egyptian Ali Farag 3-0, according to PSA World Tour. Egypt’s Raneem El Welily, meanwhile, lost the title to New Zealand’s Joelle King.

Flat6Labs to launch 12th cycle in January: Our friends at Flat6Labs will launch their 12th startup accelerator cycle in January 2019. Startups that are accepted for the 12th cycle can expect to receive between EGP 500k and EGP 750k in initial seed funding and up to EGP 2 mn upon graduation, the firm said in a press release (pdf). Startups will also receive grants of EGP 25,000 if they meet certain social impact criteria. “Flat6Labs Cairo is now proud to offer an even more attractive package than before for visionary Egyptian entrepreneurs looking to scale their businesses in Egypt and MENA,” CEO Ramez El Serafy said.