Taxes are going digital

It’s the first day of October, in respect of which we note that (a) it is also the first day of 4Q (heaven help us all) and (b) that the telephone has no constitutional right to be answered, as The Colonel taught us when we were young. It is perhaps more relevant today than it was in the days of rotary-dial phones, though we would substitute the words “text” or “whatsapp” for “telephone.”

CIRA shares make their EGX debut this morning: Shares of leading private-sector education outfit CIRA begin trading on the EGX this morning, changing hands at EGP 6.00 each at the opening bell. Appetite for the company’s shares was strong, with the institutional offering — by a wide margin the larger of the two tranches on offer — being more than 10x oversubscribed. Fittingly enough, the shares will trade under the ticker “CIRA.”

Companies are officially required to file their tax returns electronically as of today. Individuals filing returns outside their place of employment will be required to do so electronically as of 2020, the Finance Ministry said in a statement (pdf) on Sunday. Tax returns can be filed here.

We’ll see the contours of a new local industrial development strategy tomorrow when Trade and Industry Minister Amr Nassar unveils it at a media event. Expect it to focus on supply-chain integration.

A long-lasting slump in Asia will be the next chapter in the EM Zombie Apocalypse. That’s the contention of Steve Johnson, who chronicles emerging markets for the Financial Times. Johnson argues that emerging Asian growth will slump to a near 20-year low in 2019 and warns that the “slowing of the world’s growth engine is likely to be long-lasting,” citing a consensus forecast of 90 banks, asset managers, consultancies and ratings agencies across the region. “The projections are markedly gloomier than those of the IMF.”

Is the USD losing its mojo, potentially easing a bit of pressure on the EGP? The pound has still fallen less against the greenback this year than other EM Currencies, but still: “The USD rally that has pressured everything from emerging markets to commodities in 2018 is reversing into the year’s end,” the Wall Street Journal notes, saying that the USD is down 1.7% from its August peak.

A watchful eye on the “global trade wars”: Canada and the United States, until recently the closest of allies, are headed for a midnight Eastern time deadline to reach an agreement on amendments to NAFTA, a key global trade pact from which the US is ready to walk away. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau arrived at his office last night ahead of the deadline, which runs out at 6am CLT, raising expectations a pact would be announced at the last minute. The Globe and Mail is reporting that negotiators for the two sides have agreed to the outline of a pact and that Canada will open access to its dairy market.

An agreement on NAFTA will be good news for markets today, with the Financial Times noting that investors are “gearing up for a week of political risk” amid trade tensions and questions about what’s next for Brexit as the ruling Conservative party meets in the United Kingdom for its annual conference.

Speaking of the salmon-colored paper: Markets columnist John Authers, who we alternately love and love to hate in these parts, has retired. His last, eclectic Authers’ Note is here.

Will Paris become Europe’s new trading hub in post-Brexit life? A number of global banks and asset managers are reportedly planning to relocate to Paris from London as the UK prepares to move forward Brexit plans. “BlackRock and JPMorgan Chase are poised to join Bank of America and Citigroup in the vanguard,” sources tell the Financial Times. Morgan Stanley is also expanding its operation in the city, while Goldman Sachs said it plans to double its Paris workforce, and HSBC said it was moving as many as 1,000 jobs to the French capital from London.

Your banker is going to want to (really) get to know your face. Biometrics are going to become key to your relationship with your bank, driven in no small part by a European Union requirement starting in September 2019 that will demand online payments greater than EUR 30 require multifactor authentication. “Consumers will need to use two of three things to verify transactions: something they know, like a password; something they have, like a digital device, perhaps a USB token, that identifies them; or something they are: biometric data,” writes the Wall Street Journal

In miscellany this morning to get you through your commute:

• Saudi is shelving its USD 200 bn plan to build the world’s largest solar park, according to the Wall Street Journal, noting that the “eye catching project” is “stalled.” It would have generated more than 3x the country’s daily energy needs.
• It is impossible not to crave fried rice (and mull a quick trip to New York) after reading the NYT’s review of Fan Fried Rice Bar.
• Does your immune system mediate mental illness? Read He got schizophrenia. He got cancer. And then he got cured.

The Nobel Prize for physiology or medicine will be announced this morning, kicking off Nobel week. The prizes for physics, chemistry and peace are due out this week, while the prize in economics will be announced a week from today. You can follow the announcements on the Nobel website as they roll out.

PSA- Expect milder temperature across the country for today, with highs in Cairo dropping a full 4°C to 32°C, meteorologists said, according to Egypt Independent. Alexandria will see highs of 30°C, while Upper Egypt and the Red Sea will experience hot days and cooler nights.

Last night was one of bland miscellany on the airwaves, with the talking heads taking on topics ranging from emerging market troubles, to the government’s new Hep C campaign, and overcrowding of public school classrooms.

The lone bright spot: Egypt is faring better than most of its emerging market peers, EFG Hermes Head of Research Ahmed Shams Eldin told Hona Al Asema’s Reham Ibrahim. He pointed out that high foreign debt levels are the main challenge facing most EMs today, but said that Egypt’s debt levels — while still high — are within relatively safe bounds (watch, runtime: 2:36). You can watch the full interview here, runtime: 30:28.

The government is launching today a national campaign to treat Hepatitis C, which will take off in nine governorates in phaes one, among them South Sinai, Matrouh, Assiut, Portsaid, Alexandria, Beheira, Damietta, Fayoum and Qalubiya, Health Ministry spokesperson Khaled Megahed told Hona Al Asema. Mobile health clinics will be parked out in densely-populated areas to test people and positive patients will be transferred to the closest available facility for treatment at no charge, he added (watch here, runtime: 12: 41 and here, runtime: 13:28).

The first phase of the campaign will run through October and November, while the full program will take about seven months to complete, National Committee for Control of Viral Hepatitis member Yehia El Shazly told Masaa DMC (watch, runtime: 13:28). Authorities in Assiut are already calling on citizens to take the tests, according to Hona Al Asema’s reporter there (watch, runtime: 4:44). The initiative has received USD 262 mn in funding from the World Bank.

Egypt needs to add around 200k classrooms a year to its existing capacities but can only add about 20k currently, Education Minister Tarek Shawky told Amr Adib on El Hekaya, explaining that the government has been unable to keep up with population growth levels. Most public school classrooms house around 45 students on average, he added, noting that the overcrowding of classrooms is addressed in the government’s new educational reform strategy (watch, runtime: 5:40).

Meanwhile, Deputy Transport Minister Amr Shaat updated Hona Al Asema on ongoing railway upgrades (watch, runtime: 6:44 and here, runtime: 35: 32).

Egypt angling for inclusion in JPM EM bond index? Egypt reportedly wants to be included in JP Morgan’s emerging markets government bonds index, three sources familiar with the matter tell Bloomberg. In preparation for its pitch, the government is taking steps to make Egypt’s debt eligible for including, including starting talks with Belgium’s Euroclear to facilitate the settlement of domestic debt for overseas investors. According to the sources, “ensuring cross-border domestic debt purchases could be cleared efficiently would also help facilitate Egypt’s inclusion in the index.” The government hopes that inclusion in the index would “encourage passive inflows and help ease the debt servicing burden” as demand for EGP-denominated dropped in the midst of the emerging markets sell-off, which has pushed up yields.

GCC countries are looking to do the same: “Saudi Arabia and four other Gulf countries will become eligible for inclusion in JPMorgan’s emerging-market bonds indexes from the end of January, potentially attracting billions of dollars in passive inflows,” Bloomberg writes.

FinMin carries through with treasury auction despite higher yields: The quest for inclusion on JPM’s EM bond index comes as an auction yesterday saw yields on 91-day treasury bills rise to 19.711% from 19.62%, while yields at the nine-month auction rose to 19.938% from 19.84% previously, according to CBE data. The auction saw the sale of EGP 10.6 bn worth of 91-day bills and EGP 10.37 bn worth of nine-month bills. The sale came after Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said last week that his ministry would call off sales of longer-term domestic bonds as long as yields remained high. The ministry had called off its fourth bond auction in as many weeks just a few days prior.

EMG, IEC have begun withdrawing arbitration cases against Egypt: East Mediterranean Gas (EMG) and Israel Electric Corporation have officially begun proceedings to drop their international arbitration case against state energy companies EGPC and EGAS, according to Oil Ministry sources. The two cases would have seen Egypt pay a combined USD 1.988 mn in fines for failing to supply IEC with gas in 2012.

Key step in our energy hub transformation: The withdrawal of the claims are conditions of the USD 518 mn agreement Noble Energy and Delek — the operators of Israel’s Leviathan and Tamar gas fields — and their Egyptian partner East Gas signed last week. The transaction gives Nobel and Delek a 39% stake in EMG, paving the way for the gas field operators to export natural gas to Egypt under a USD 15 bn agreement signed in February with Alaa Arafa’s Dolphinus Holdings.

Advisers: Shahid Law Firm acted as sell-side legal counsel on the EMG transaction, while Alliance Law Firm had was on the buy-side.

The final tally on this FY’s natural gas imports: Egypt imported 17 shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG) worth USD 500 mn in 1QFY2018-19, Oil Ministry spokesman Hamdi Abdelaziz tells Reuters. Imports in FY2017-18 amounted to USD 1.5 bn for 76 shipments, according to Abdelaziz. Egypt received its final shipment of imported LNG last week, marking the end of natural gas imports for the country, Oil Minister Tarek El Molla told the press over the weekend. El Molla had previously said Egypt is due to begin exports by January 2019, with exports expected to reach 400 mcf/d in early 2019, unnamed ministry sources said. The exports include 250 mcf/d Egypt will be supplying to Jordan as of the beginning of next year.

Egypt’s M2 Money Supply grew 17.02% y-o-y in August to EGP 3.51 tn, according to central bank data cited by Reuters. The pace is slower than July, when broad money supply grew by 17.48%.

Seven bidders for Alex Containers stake sale: Seven investment banks and consortiums submitted last week their bids to quarterback the upcoming sale of an additional stake in state-owned Alexandria Containers & Cargo Handling (ACCH), unidentified sources tell Al Mal. The newspaper claims the bidders include:

• Pharos Holding
• Arqaam Capital
• HC Securities
• HSBC
• EFG Hermes and Citibank
• CI Capital, Credit Agricole and Emirates NBD
• Beltone Financial and Goldman Sachs

Decision by mid-October? NI Capital, the state investment bank that is running the revived privatization program, is expected to select the winning bid “within days,” according to the sources. Amwal Al Ghad, meanwhile, counters that the decision won’t be made public until the second week of October. NI Capital had issued a tender last month to hire a manager for the stake sale. ACCH is expected to sell 30% of its shares on the EGX in November as part of the first wave of the state privatization program. The government had hired HSBC to manage the sale of shares from the Alexandria Mineral Oils Company (AMOC) and EFG Hermes to take on the Eastern Company transaction.

INVESTMENT WATCH- Alshaya Group to bring Avenues Mall to Egypt as part of expansion drive: Kuwait’s Alshaya Group is looking to bring its Avenues Mall brand to Egypt, Executive Chairman Mohammed Abdul Aziz Alshaya told Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly and Investment Minister Sahar Nasr in a meeting yesterday. No details on the scope or location of the project were provided, but Alshaya said that his company is planning to grow its number of retail stores in Egypt and is also open to new investment opportunities, according to a statement picked up by Al Mal. Alshaya manages and operates stores in the Middle East under license from major global brands including Starbucks, H&M, Pottery Barn, and the Cheesecake Factory. We had reported in February that Alshaya was in the market for three- and four-star hotels in governorates including Cairo, Giza, and Alexandria.

INVESTMENT WATCH- Government vets offers from three global consortiums for development of USD 1.4 bn Abu Tartour phosphate fertilizers project: The government is vetting offers from three global consortiums for the development of the c. USD 1.4 bn phosphate fertilizers production complex in Abu Tartour, Al Ahram reports. Spain’s Intecsa Industrial, Italy’s Saipem, and the China State Construction Engineering Corporation, according to project manager Khaled Salama. The bulk of the cost will be directed to USD 800 mn production facility. The plan also includes a EGP 400 mn railway line that will connect to the Safaga Port through Qena to facilitate the transport of raw materials and finished goods, he said. Construction is scheduled to start early in 2019 with the project set to go live in the final quarter of 2021, said Medhat Mounir, the head of the state-owned El Wadi Phosphate (which owns the project). Output will be earmarked for exports to markets including East Asia, India, and Europe, according to Salama. The Texas-based Fluor Corporation was awarded the project’s design and management consultancy contract back in March and had said then it would fast-track its work, without specifying a clear timeline.

LEGISLATION WATCH- House, Tourism Ministry are drafting a Unified Tourism Act: The House of Representatives’ Tourism and Civil Aviation Committee is working with the Tourism Ministry to draft a Unified Tourism Act, committee head Sahar Talaat Moustafa said. The draft bill would bring together all legislation pertaining to the tourism sector, including issuing licenses, regulating tourism workers, and overseeing hotels and the quality of services. The committee plans to meet with the Egyptian Tourism Federation for input on the draft law and expects to bring the bill to discussion during parliament’s fourth legislative session — which officially begins tomorrow — Moustafa said, but offered no further insight on when we should expect the drafting of the legislation to be complete.

EARNINGS WATCH- Qalaa Holdings recorded a net profit of EGP 486.9 mn in 2Q2018, compared to a net loss of EGP 2.756 bn in the same period last year, according to the company’s earnings release (pdf). Qalaa’s revenues rose 39% y-o-y in 2Q2018 to EGP 3.1 bn “on the back of growth in its energy division and the consolidation of National Printing, which started in 1Q2018.” The company’s restructuring efforts also saw it begin the deconsolidation of operational liabilities from its Africa Railways platform. “I am very pleased with our company’s performance in the second quarter and first half of 2018. Our core energy and infrastructure subsidiaries continue to deliver operational growth as they capitalize on favorable market dynamics,” said Chairman and Founder Ahmed Heikal.

Looking ahead: “As we bring our company closer to the cusp of sustainable operational profitability, we are actively gearing up for the next growth phase across our subsidiaries,” said Co-Founder and Managing Director Hisham El Khazindar. The company’s USD 4 bn Egyptian Refining Company is 98% complete and commissioning is slated to begin before the end of the year, and Qalaa has previously been reported to be in talks to increase its stake in ERC by subscribing to a capital increase.

2018 is “seen as a turnaround period” for Qalaa, which has been in the red for a few years despite its stock surging 139% this year, Filipe Pacheco and Tamim Elyan write for Bloomberg. Qalaa, “the best-performing stock in Egypt this year, might be about to reward investors even more as [its] turnaround plan moves forward” and the company continues to restructure its portfolio and cut its consolidated debts. Key to the turnaround: The Egyptian Refining Company, due to come into production early next year.

The House of Representatives is due back in session on Tuesday, 2 October at 10am.

It’s PMI week: The purchasing managers’ index for Egypt, Saudi, and the UAE is due out on Wednesday, 3 October.

Melania Trump is coming to Egypt this week as part of a trip to Africa to “promote child welfare and education.” Melania’s visit will also take her to Kenya, Ghana, and Malawi.

An Egyptian-Sudanese presidential summit is set to take place in Khartoum this month. A ministerial committee was expected to meet at the end of September to prepare for the summit.

The Egypt-Romania business council will meet in Bucharest from 7-11 October, according to Al Mal.

Expect more news on the energy-hub front when the foreign ministers of Egypt, Cyprus and Greece meet in Crete on Wednesday, 10 October.

Fourth IMF review scheduled for mid-October: An IMF delegation is due in town mid-October for a review of Egypt’s progress on its reform program ahead of the disbursal of the fifth USD 2 bn tranche of the country’s extended fund facility, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said. The IMF should complete its review by the following month, Maait said.

The 2018 Narrative PR Summit will take place at the Four Seasons Nile Plaza on Sunday, 28 October with participants including friends ranging from the World Bank’s Mahmoud Mohieldin to US embassy spokesman Sam Werberg. The event’s website is here and its Facebook page here.

What oil hitting USD 100 a barrel means for the world: Oil’s return to USD 100 a barrel won’t hit global growth as hard as a similar spike in 2011 thanks to economies’ reduced reliance on the energy industry, “the shale revolution,” as well as already-high oil prices, Bloomberg reports. A price spike would, however, surely drive up inflation and strain households in importing countries: While some policymakers assess inflation through indexes that remove energy costs, “a substantial run-up in oil prices could provide a more durable uptick for overall inflation if the costs filter through to transportation and utilities.” Read: If you live in Egypt.

Blame Trump? The US re-imposing sanctions on Iran, paired with civil unrest in Venezuela, Libya and Nigeria, have all hampered oil supply amid growing demand, leading to a 22% increase in Brent crude prices this year. The Donald has been putting pressure on Saudi Arabia and its OPEC friends to step up production to drive prices down, but they have shown no serious signs they will comply.

Winners and losers: Oil producers Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and Colombia are among the countries that would see the hike positively reflect on their budget, current account deficit, and investment spending. On the flipside, losers would include net oil importers, including Europe and China.

Egypt would obviously be on the wrong side of the equation: The hike would strain Egypt’s concerted effort to tighten its budget and put more pressure on consumers already grappling with the impact of high inflation in recent years. A senior government official told us last month that the Finance Ministry is looking to amend its budget deficit target for FY2018-19 to 8.6% from 8.4% in large part thanks to rising global oil prices. It likely also mean further fuel subsidy cuts, from which the poor are largely insulated, but which hit lower-middle-class and middle-class consumers squarely in the pocketbooks.

Retrial of Ikhwan leaders tops coverage of Egypt in international headlines: The Cairo Criminal Court ordered yesterday the retrial of Ikhwan leader Mohammed Badie and deputy Khairat El Shater, and several others, over violence-related charges from 2013. The first hearing has been scheduled for 7 October, Reuters says, citing the state news agency. The story is topping coverage of Egypt in the foreign press on what is otherwise a very slow morning.

A close second was the sentencing of activist Amal Fathy to two years in prison for “spreading false news,”which CNN carried today. He story had made top headlines yesterday.

Teachers are at the heart of educational reform in Egypt: Past attempts to reform education in Egypt through a change in curriculum have all proven ineffective, political science professor Mona Makram Ebeid writes in a piece for Al Masry Al Youm, where she argues that a lesson is only as good or bad as the person teaching it. Focusing on curriculum only tackles one aspect of the problem she says, adding that effort must be spent to refine teachers’ skills and advance their qualifications, not to mention raise their salaries, if Egypt ever hopes to see an improvement in the overall quality of education.

Is there a correlation between polygamy and violence in a society? Countries in which men are legally permitted to marry morethan one woman are plagued by instability as poorer men turn to violence to amid a shortage of brides, according to the Economist. “If the richest and most powerful 10% of men have four wives each, the bottom 30% of men cannot marry. Young men will take desperate measures to avoid this fate,” the magazine says, arguing that poor men are often tempted to resort to violent methods to secure the wealth needed to get married. Banned in most Western countries, polygamy is common in the MENA region and Asia — and each of the world’s 20 most unstable countries, the Economist (which still insists it is a newspaper) reports (watch, runtime: 1:45).

A Hamas delegation arrived in Cairo yesterday for further talks with Egyptian officials to discuss brokering a truce with rival Palestinian faction Fatah and alleviating the blockade of Gaza, spokesman Hossam Badran said, Brinkwire says.

Egyptian solar panel company RGS is planning to partner with unnamed Saudi and French companies to bid on two 50 MW solar power plants worth a combined USD 160 mn, RGS CEO Mohamed Ali told Al Mal. He expects the contracts for the plants to be signed next month, with work to begin in November. The company is aiming to sign up the plants as part of phase two of the feed-in tariff program.

Egypt’s passenger car sales rose 12% y-o-y in August as the market continued to recover, but fell 8% m-o-m “likely due to seasonal impact,” according to figures from the Automotive Information Council (AMIC). GB Auto’s total car sales went down by 5% to 3,740 units while its market share fell to 32.5% in August compared to the same month last year. The automotive industry has been rebounding since January 2018 following a year-long slump.

The Egyptian Olympic Committee (EOC) decided yesterday to ban Zamalek Football Club chairman Mortada Mansour from all club-related sporting events and called on the House of Representatives to lift Mansour’s parliamentary, the organization said in a statement. This came just one day after the Confederation of African Football (CAF) decided to ban him for one year and fine him USD 40k for making derogatory comments about CAF officials. As usual, the “Mortadel” hit back, calling the issue a “conspiracy” by CAF officials, (watch, runtime: 5:13).

Chinese food blogger Trevor James took a stroll through Alexandria’s side streets to review some of its authentic breakfast placeslike Mohamed Ahmed and “Alexandrian fondue place” Alban Swisra. James vlogs his way through the city as he visits a busy seafood market in Bahary, picks and purchases some fresh squid, shrimp and crab and watches them as they get seasoned and grilled at a nearby restaurant (watch, runtime: 22:22).