Monthly inflation cools in April

Keep it together for just a few more hours, people — the IMF delegation is leaving towntoday. The IMF delegation reviewing Egypt’s progress on economic reform before disbursing the second tranche of a USD 12 bn bailout package leaves Cairo today after a week busy of meetings with government officials. Finance Minister Amr El Garhy has said the meetings were largely positive; he expects the USD 1.25 bn second tranche in June.

We’re about to get a well-deserved break from the House: The House of Representatives will be taking a 19-day break until Monday, 29 May while Speaker Ali Abdel Aal jets off to conferences in Italy and Japan, according to Al-Ahram’s breaking news portal. The House has a reasonably busy docket at the moment, between the 2017-18 state budget, the automotive directive, the proposed bankruptcy act, the stamp tax on EGX transactions, and the pending renewal of the state of emergency, among other pieces of legislation. But with Ramadan, two Eid breaks, Sahel season and the dog days of summer now upon us, it’s not much of a stretch to wonder whether we’re heading into a legislative slowdown. Then again, the president kept MPs’ noses to the grindstone last summer straight through until early September before he allowed them to flee to the North Coast.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is trimming its growth forecast for our region. EBRD sees the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries in which it does business (including Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia) as growing 3.7% this year thanks to “a worse-than-expected performance across all the countries of the region.” EBRD’s growth forecast for the region was trimmed “due to factors such as rising inflation hampering consumption and regional turmoil weighing on tourism.”

EBRD sees Egypt growing at 4.5% in 2018 thanks to improvements in the business environment, up from its forecast of 3.8% for this year. The growth outlook was unveiled during the bank’s annual meeting yesterday. Reuters has coverage of the growth forecast, or you can check out its release on the subject, read its annual report (pdf), or check out its media page this morning, which is heavy coverage from the annual meeting.

The US is moving toward a complete ban on in-cabin use of electronic devices on flightsfrom Europe, the New York Times reports. Look for the issue to come up when US Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly briefs the Senate on security issues today. The Times quotes a “senior official with a United States airline” as saying that “carriers had been in talks with government officials for weeks about the possibility of an expanded ban, mainly over the logistics of carrying it out.”

Media bashing: It’s not just for The Donald. Failing retailer Sears (see what we did there?) is bashing the “irresponsible” media for its woes, Reuters reports.

Furniture expo Le Marché is set to begin on Thursday 11 May and run until 14 May.

The Ismail government will sign contracts for the USD 30 bn Dabaa nuclear power plant with Russia’s Rosatom by the end of May now that negotiations are nearing the end, sources close to the matter tell Al Borsa. Maybe then the tourists can come back?

The first 2 mn bbl shipment of Iraqi crude are due to arrive early next week, Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation head Abed Ezz El Regal says, according to Al Borsa.

Egypt and China are expected to sign an agreement for the USD 700 mn second phase of the national electricity grid at the 14-15 May Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation in Beijing, according to China’s Ambassador to Cairo Song Aiguo, Al Mal reported yesterday. Officials are also expected to ink an agreement for an Egyptian-Chinese economic zone in Ain Sokhna. Trade Minister Tarek Kabil are set to attend the gathering.

Kabil will also be traveling to Bahrain next week with the ministers of tourism and housing, as well as a delegation of Egyptian businessmen, to talk economic cooperation with a number of Bahraini officials and attend an SME expo slated for 15-18 May.

There was enough business and economics on the airwaves last night to keep us from falling asleep. Lamees El Hadidi spoke to EFG Hermes’ Mohamed Abou Basha about the month-on-month slowdown in inflation, which he said was the result of the market adjusting to the effects of recent economic reform measures (watch, runtime: 3:40). (More on that front on Speed Round)
Lamees also spoke to Petroleum Minister Tarek El Molla about the start of operations at BP’s West Nile Delta concessions, which launched eight months ahead of schedule and are expected to save Egypt around USD 1 bn in in annual spending (watch, runtime: 9:16).

Over on Masaa DMC, GAFI overlord Mohamed Khodeir spoke to host Osama Kamal about the new Investment Act (watch, runtime: 3:41).

On Yahduth fi Misr, Sherif Amer spoke to Investment and International Cooperation Minister Sahar Nasr about her most recent trip to DC and the executive regulations of the Investment Act, which she said would be ready in “a matter of weeks.”
Amer also spoke to MPs about the 10% hardship raise for bureaucrats not covered under the Civil Service Act, which the House of Representatives approved today and expects to see issued by 25 May at the latest.

Amr Adib spent the larger part of last night’s Kol Youm loudly recounting all the great things that industry can do for the economy. Adib also played a short clip about 58 newly-equipped and licensed factories in Port Said’s industrial zone that the government handed over to young people to run as part of a national initiative to support SMEs (watch, runtime: 3:36).

Meanwhile on Al Hayah Al Yom, Tamer Amin was on pensions. The head of the General Union of Pensioners, El Badry Farghaly, spoke to the host about the need to raise the take-home envelopes of Egypt’s 5 mn pensioners to help them to cope with inflation. Most receive around EGP 500-1,000 each month, which is not nearly enough, Farghaly said (watch, runtime: 4:50).

Egypt’s monthly inflation rate fell for a third month in a row after rising by just 1.7% in April compared to March, the slowest pace since October, according to CAPMAS. Annual urban inflation accelerated to 31.5% in April from 30.9% the month before, with food price inflation registering 43.6%. Core inflation decreased marginally to 32.06% in April from 32.25% in March. The annual figures are the highest since June 1986, Reuters says. The continued decline in the monthly rate “indicates that the shocks from the flotation and increase in fuel price have tapered off … Now the inflation rate will behave normally, going up or down depending on seasonal factors, and subject to shocks such as further subsidy cuts … These figures confirm that there is no need to raise interest rates, as the shocks have subsided,” Arqaam Capital economist Reham El Desoki told Bloomberg.

Pharos Holding’s Ramy Oraby said in a research note yesterday (pdf) that three factors could drive inflation higher in the near term after three consecutive months of month-on-month cooling: electricity tariff hikes, the scheduled increase in the value-added tax rate to 14% from 13% at the beginning of July, and another round of fuel price hikes. EFG Hermes says the month’s reading shows the inflationary shock was largely absorbed; it sees inflation decelerating going in 2H FY2017-18 to around the “low teens.”

The easing of bank restrictions on credit card usage abroad is another sign that the foreign exchange problems “have finally been dealt with and started to fade,” Capital Economics’ Jason Tuvey tells Bloomberg. “We’ve seen a sharp increase in foreign-exchange reserves, and there’s been a flow of [USD] that was in the black market moving into the official banking system,” he adds. So far, CIB, Banque Misr, National Bank of Egypt, and HSBC have removed caps on credit card usage abroad. Bloomberg notes, however, that the economic recovery is “far from complete,” citing a BMI research saying reform measures are expected to weigh on economic growth as “rising investment will not be sufficient to offset the negative impact of high inflation on private consumption.” BMI added that while inflation has likely peaked, measures including subsidy cuts will continue to squeeze consumers and businesses.

…Separately, foreign investments in Egyptian government securities rose to EGP 103.6bn as of 9 May, said Sami Khallaf, the head of public debt at the Finance Ministry, according to Reuters.

Production from BP’s Taurus and Libra fields in the West Nile Delta concession began on Wednesday, eight months ahead of schedule. The project also came in under budget,the company said in a statement. The fields, which constitute phase one of the West Nile Delta development, are currently producing more than 700 mn standard cubic feet of sales gas per day and 1,000 barrels per day of condensate, “which is 20% higher than the planned sales gas plateau,” according to BP. The additional capacity is expected to save Egypt an annual USD 1 bn, an emailed statement from the Petroleum Ministry said (pdf). The second phase of the project, which includes the Giza, Fayoum, and Raven fields, is expected to come on stream by 2019, raising the entire development’s production capacity to a daily 1.5 bcf of gas and saving Egypt an annual USD 1.8 bn. The story is getting international attention from Reuters.

Tour operator Thomas Cook has canceled its Sharm El Sheikh holiday bookings for the winter of 2017-18. It has also scrapped its summer 2018 holiday and flight programs, according to The Sun. The company had scheduled five winter flights per week, but scrapped them as a result “of the continued Foreign Office advice against travel to the area, which Thomas Cook had hoped would be overturned by next winter.” Thomas Cook is, instead, increasing its flights to Hurghada and introducing Marsa Alam as a new destination. Other travel companies, including TUI, continue to offer winter holidays for 2017-18 for the time being. A Thomas Cook spokesman said: “Egypt has been very popular this year. We’re expecting more than double the number of UK customers compared with last year, over 150,000 bookings … We put on more flights for the winter season just gone and for this summer to keep up with demand.”

M&A WATCH- The bidding war for NCMP is heating up: Egypt Kuwait Holding (EKH) subsidiary International Financial Investments Company (IFIC) has submitted a bid to acquire Misr Capital Investment’s 42.96% stake in National Company for Maize Products (NCMP), according to a regulatory filing (pdf). The bid is nonbinding, and IFIC will submit a mandatory tender offer to acquire 100% of NCMP if it wins the first stake. NCMP’s other suitors include Al Mona (the local affiliate of global player Louis Dreyfus), a Swiss unit of Archer Daniels Midland, and local commodities giant Cairo Three A Group, which is reported to have recently hired former Egyptian Starch and Glucose boss Hazem Zayed.

IPO WATCH- Investment banks including Pharos Holding, HC, Cairo Financial Holding, and Prime are bidding for a piece of Enppi’s listing on the EGX, Al Mal reports. CI Capital, Beltone, and Arqaam Capital have already presented bids to NI Capital to manage the issuance, and both EFG Hermes and Renaissance Capital are interested, we’re told. The issuance will reportedly have domestic and international lead arrangers, suggesting that international outfits including HSBC, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, and JPMorgan are interested. The global coordinators of the transaction are expected to be announced on 3 July.

EARNINGS WATCH- CIB delivered record top- and bottom-line performances to start 2017 as it released its first quarter earnings late last night. The lender delivered 29% revenue growth to EGP 3.32 bn, while its bottom line swelled 34% over the same period last year to EGP 1.73 bn. The bank’s management team noted in a statement that, “This quarter, besides normal growth in net interest income, CIB witnessed remarkable growth in its non-interest income, which tripled from last year, largely driven by a pick-up in trade finance activity and foreign exchange transaction volumes as the foreign currency shortage started to resolve following the CBE decision to float the Egyptian Pound.”

CIB also reminded its investors of the central bank’s February 2017 decision to allow the interim recognition of profits in the capital base for banks, which management noted “expected to allow for relative stability in Bank’s capital levels and to reflect the actual solvency for commercial banks operating in Egypt.” Download CIB’s full earnings release here (pdf).

Palm Hills Developments (PHD) reported its net profit after tax and minority interestincreasing by 101% y-o-y to EGP 212 mn in 1Q2017, the company’s best-ever bottom-line performance, it said in a regulatory filing (pdf). New sales in the quarter topped EGP 3.1 bn, up 58% y-o-y for best-ever single quarter of sales. Chairman Yaseen Mansour says the company “still expect sales growth in FY2017, driven by our new launches in Palm Hills New Cairo, Capital Gardens, the Crown (190 feddan in West Cairo) and Hacienda West, in addition to New Sales from our older projects which cater to clients who want to move in within 1-2 years.” PHD accordingly raised its sales target for the year to EGP 9.5 bn from its previous target of EGP 9.5 bn.

MM Group For Industry And International Trade (MTI) recorded a 171% y-o-y increase in net income in 1Q2017 to EGP 130 mn. MTI said revenues grew 38% y-o-y to EGP 1.5 bn on the back of “outstanding performance from the consumer electronics segment.” The company’s results presentation is here (pdf).

Companies exporting food to the GCC face new regulations imposed Wednesday by the Agriculture Ministry after the Kuwaiti government suspended on Tuesday its imports of a number of Egyptian products that did not meet the required health standards, Youm7 reported. The Agriculture Ministry had promised last month to issue new quality control measures for exported goods, acknowledging that the excessive use of pesticides in Egyptian farming has been a particularly thorny issue, after the UAE halted Egyptian pepper imports for that reason.

Stamp tax on all capital market transactions back with the House for a final vote: Maglis Al Dawla (Council of State) has finished reviewing amendments to the Income Tax Law that will incorporate a stamp tax on EGX transactions, Deputy Finance Minister Amr El Monayer told Al Borsa on Wednesday. The amendments, which the Ismail cabinet had approved in March, impose a 0.125% duty that will gradually increase to 0.175% over a three-year span, on the buy- and sell-sides of all capital market transactions, as well as a 0.3% duty on transactions where 33% or more of a company’s shares are being sold. The House of Representatives will receive the amended bill today. While El Monayer says a final vote should come by 17 May, we’re expecting a delay after MPs reportedly went into recess yesterday until 29 May.

Trade Ministry to amend the proposed automotive directive? The Trade and Industry Ministry is reportedly looking to revisit unspecified sections of the so-called “automotive directive” before sending it back to the House of Representatives for review and a final vote, Al Mal said on Wednesday. The news comes a little more than a week after the European Union’s ambassador to Cairo claimed that the bill — which offers incentives to encourage local assemblers to move further up the value chain into manufacturing — violates the terms of Egypt’s free trade agreement with the EU. European carmakers and local importers of their wares have been lobbying against the automotive directive for the last several months, claiming that it not only offers assemblers too many incentives but could also be potentially harmful for exporters in the long run. (Don’t ask us about the logic on that last bit — we report this stuff, we don’t make it up).

Passed by September? Prodded by their local partners, European car makers had complained about the bill to the European Commission, warning that it may impact future European investments in the Egyptian market. It’s unclear when the ministry intends to send the updated bill back to the House, but the government is hoping to see the law passed by September, House Industry Committee chair Ahmed Samir tells the newspaper. The bill proposes giving local assemblers tax breaks and payouts to protect them against what the industry says are unfair advantages enjoyed by importers of European, Turkish, and Moroccan car brands.

After what felt like a lifetime of postponements, House passes 10% hardship raise: The House of Representatives finally approved the 10% hardship raise for state bureaucrats not covered under the Civil Service Act, Al Borsa reports. The bonus will be calculated using the base salary, and not the gross salary, the House’s Manpower Committee secretary said. MPs agreed with the Finance Ministry that the raise will range from EGP 65-120, House Manpower Committee member Khaled Abdel Aziz said. The raise will be issued before Ramadan, towards the end of May.

HeidelbergCement says its 1Q2017 sales dropped sharply in Egypt due to weak market conditions. While it did not give a specific figure for sales in Egypt, the company says its consolidated revenues increased by 34% y-o-y to EUR 3.8 bn. The company’s losses increased to EUR 35 mn from the EUR 31 mn recorded in 1Q2016.

Take investors’ money, don’t give them disclosure, don’t execute — and pay the price. You may recall our rather intense dislike of Snap, the maker of the app Snapchat (which, for whatever reason, describes itself as “a camera company”). That has nothing to do with our collective inability to figure out the app beloved by teens, and everything with the company at IPO having issued a prospectus that gave investors “no say on how the company is run and no promise of profits … At least 10 of the 12 investment banks that have signed up to underwrite the Snap IPO weren’t even allowed a peek at the S-1 ahead of it being filed.” One observer even described it as “the most shareholder-unfriendly governance in an initial public offering, ever.” (We dissected the prospectus here back in February when was in mid-IPO.)

Well, the chickens came home to roost yesterday: The company’s shares plunged by nearly 25% in after-hours trading as the company missed on revenues and user growth and turned in a bigger bottom-line loss than expected as it reported its first earnings as a publicly traded company. The company, stockwatchers believe, is suffering because Facebook is succeeding in copying Snapchat’s features. “Overall I feel we have executed well on our priorities for this quarter,” Snap CEO Evan Spiegel said during his earnings call yesterday. If you have the stomach, read one of the poorest earnings releases we’ve seen in ages. Business Insider has more.

On the international news front this morning:

• Eni reported its best quarterly profits in two years in 1Q2017 on higher oil prices and production, Reuters reports. Eni is developing Egypt’s supergiant Zohr gasfield, which the development of which is “progressing ahead of schedule,” CEO Claudio Descalzi said.
• KSA’s Olayan Financing Co. may be looking to IPO its bottled water business, Health Water Bottling Co., on the Tadawul, Bloomberg reports. Olayan is a significant investor in Egypt.
• There’s an uproar in Poland about the death of a Polish woman visitingHurghada on vacation, which we noted yesterday authorities had labelled suspicious. The terms now being thrown around including allegations of [redacted] assault, Al-Arabiya reports.

Among the most-clicked stories in Enterprise in the past week:

• The Ikhwan are running their own parallel lobbying mission in DC, and it’s every bit as crazy as you would imagine. (Enterprise)
• Bilingual speakers experience time differently from people who only speak one language, study finds. (The Independent)
• Buffett confronts search for next big thing after missed chances. (Bloomberg)
• Science: Running is better than every other exercise at making you live longer. (GQ)
• Emmanuel Macron is 39 and his wife is 64. French women say it’s about time. (Washington Post) (tie)
• Egypt is the sixth most expensive place in the world to buy an iPhone. (Enterprise) (tie)

Political, legislative developments will prevent next year’s presidential elections from being truly democratic: The looming presidential elections are gnawing on the minds of Al Shorouk’s various columnists, including Ashraf El Barbary, who takes to the pages of the newspaper to say that many pieces of legislation circulating in the House of Representatives of late raise questions about how they could factor into elections. El Barbary points in particular to the Judicial Authorities Act (which allows the sitting president to choose the judges who will preside over the elections) and a draft bill aiming to penalize those who criticize the president, saying the latter would make it virtually impossible for a presidential contender to run a political campaign without facing jail time. The political scene is not faring any better, Abdallah El Sennawy says, stressing that the complete lack of political parties or serious nominees will strip the elections of any democratic credibility. Meanwhile, Emad El Din Hussein is looking ahead to the future generation that will run the country down the line, saying he has hope that the youth in the Presidential Leadership Program will be introduced into political life within a few years and bring fresh blood into the state’s institutions.

Insider Food discovered feteer and attempted to explain it to Western viewers as “the Egyptian version of stuffed pizza” while the chef at a Nasr City restaurant is seen preparing a delicious-looking feteer meshaltet. In case you’re wondering about the fundamental differences between pizza and feteer, the chef explains that pizza dough contains yeast, while feteer dough does not — but we definitely outdo the Italians with the butter and powdered sugar content (watch, runtime 1:42).

There is no political rapprochement between Egypt and Hamas, but there are channels of dialogue in the context of security and internal Palestinian reconciliation, a Foreign Ministry spokesperson said, according to Ynet. He said Hamas’ new political document shows “there is a change in some of Hamas’ positions regarding the Palestinian issue—the agreement to the 1967 lines, the vision regarding solutions and sources of authority for a political settlement, the connection with Israel.”

Saudi Arabia is allegedly providing Sudan with financial assistance to allow it to seek adequate legal assistance in case it files for international arbitration against Egypt over the Halayeb Triangle, an unnamed diplomatic source told Mada Masr. The source also said Egyptian authorities are aware that there is an understanding between Saudi Arabia and Sudan to recognise Halayeb as Sudanese territory.

Egypt’s African diplomacy push continues: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi met with Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta in Cairo yesterday, Ahram Online reports. They discussed bilateral ties, African development, and restoring stability in East Africa and the Horn of Africa. The meeting comes ahead of the Nile Basin Initiative’s presidential summit slated for 25 May. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry arrived in Ghana yesterday for a 24-hour visit, where he met with counterpart Shirley Ayorkor Botchway and parliament speaker Aaron Mike Oquaye, Al Mal reports.

Egypt’s Smart Village Company is signing an agreement today with the UAE’s Capital Group Properties for a new smart village complex in East Cairo, Youm7 reports. The two companies had signed an MoU for the new facility last August.

Swiss food producer Hero may build a food supplements manufacturing plant in Egypt, Head of Infant Sales Saher Nadim tells Al Mal. The plant, for which feasibility studies are being conducted currently, would target exports to the MENA region.

The farmers syndicate is refusing to grow tobacco in Egypt, syndicate head Hussein Abdel Rahman says, Al Mal reports. Abdel Rahman denied reports that tobacco manufacturers agreed with the syndicate on the cultivation and said they are refusing the cash crop because it is “intoxicating to the cultivated land and to citizens.” We had noted that a study on tobacco cultivation in Egypt should be ready mid-May.

Education in Egypt has to become a national project adopted by the president, Mamdouh Shoukri, president and vice-chancellor of Canada’s York University, tells Al Shorouk. Shoukri, an Egyptian by birth, is concerned about the spread of religious education in Egypt across the different age grades and says it hinders innovation. Al Azhar should focus solely on religious studies, he suggests. He says education reform begins with primary education and refused any security interference in appointing universities’ leadership. Shoukri also added that, while he thinks curricula in Egyptian universities are “ok,” it is the memorisation-based teaching method that is antiquated and inadequate.

The Education Ministry is planning to build and develop 600 schools over the next four years under a PPP framework, Minister Tarek Shawki tells Al Borsa. The project will cost around EGP 2 bn, with the government contributing at least 40% of the funding, according to Shawki.

GE healthcare signed a USD 25.8 mn agreement to provide a “wide range” technologies to over 200 hospitals in Egypt, the company announced in a press release. GE will complete the delivery and supply of all equipment by the end of this year and will train over 1,200 doctors, technicians, and nurses on its use. Those technologies include early diagnosis and treatment follow up for oncology, in addition to scanning techniques for neurology and cardiology.

Prices of 980 medications the Health Ministry is purchasing in a tender to supply public hospitals have increased by a margin of 20-50%, presumably as a result of the ministry’s decision in January to raise meds prices under pressure from the industry, Al Borsa reports. These price increases will not be passed on to consumers, and will instead be covered by the state under the national health insurance scheme, according to Central Administration of Pharmaceutical Affairs head Rasha Ziada.

Japanese researchers are working on creating a 3D image of the pyramids to discover how they were built, The Japan Times reports. Led by archaeologist Yukinori Kawae from Nagoya University, they used laser beams and drones to measure every stone’s location and shape. A total of seven pyramids were measured and “the team plans to gather data that can be the basis for future academic study and reveal how the pyramids were built in a scientific way,” Kawae said.

An Egyptian archaeological team discovered a burial chamber inside a pyramid at the Dahshur necropolis believed to belong to 13th Dynasty king Emnikamaw, the Antiquities Ministry announced yesterday. The wooden box features three lines of hieroglyphics, and contained the conserved liver, intestine, stomach, and lungs of the deceased.

The Tourism Ministry plans to launch a domestic tourism campaign in October or November this year to attract visitors to areas of the country struggling with low occupancy rates, TDA vice president Ahmed Hamdy said, Al Borsa reports. The campaign will target areas including Safaga, Siwa, Nuweiba, and Wahat and will also promote eco-lodges and non-luxury hotels. No details were provided on the cost of the project.

The National Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (NTRA) is requiring mobile operators to have 50% of their networks covered by 3G before the can offer domestic roaming services to Telecom Egypt, Al Mal reports. TE and Orange have already reached a preliminary agreement on local roaming last month, with Vodafone and Etisalat reportedly still in negotiations with TE, sources say.

The National Authority for Tunnels (NAT) issued a EUR 224.4 mn tender to insure equipment for the fourth phase of Cairo Metro Line 3 being shipped to Egypt, Al Borsa reports. The winner of the tender will provide insurance for a two-year period, subject to renewal. The tender will close on 25 May.

The Finance Ministry will soon be putting an EU-style Single Administrative Document (SAD) in place to facilitate customs procedures and expedite the release of goods from port authorities, Finance Minister Amr El Garhy told the press on Wednesday, according to Al Shorouk.

A terrorist attack on a checkpoint staffed by armed Tarabin Bedouin tribesmen is believed to have killed 10 people, the Associated Press reports.

TV presenter and former MP Tawfik Okasha was sentenced to a year in jail for faking hisPhD diploma, Al Mal reports. A lawyer had filed a lawsuit to the prosecutor general, accusing him of the falsification of the document.

“Egypt’s revenue from the Suez Canal was USD 853.7 mn in April and March, 4.1 percent higher than the same period a year earlier, the Suez Canal Authority said in a statement on Wednesday,” Reuters reports.