Egypt is the next “Trump Trade” –RenCap

It’s a good morning for: Egypt. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam isn’t going to miraculously disappear overnight, but we took what could be an important step toward normalization of relations after President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn issued a joint statement yesterday (pdf). Notably, Desalegn will visit Egypt “in the near future” and the statement is big on verbiage about the “brotherly and strategic nature” of bilateral ties — wording usually reserved for close Arab allies. The meeting took place on the sidelines of the 28th African Union summit in Addis Ababa, where El Sisi also met with the leaders of Kenya, Zambia and Congo-Brazzaville.

Also this morning: RenCap loves us and thinks we’re on par with Russia as a “Trump trade.” We have more on the RenCap report in this morning’s Speed Round.

It’s not a good morning for: The Donald. The acting Attorney General of the United States, Sally Q. Yates, is a person of great moral character, telling her staff she isn’t convinced US President Donald Trump’s executive order on immigration is “lawful” and that her department will not defend it on her watch. Yates is an Obama administration holdover — and was promptly fired earlier this morning. Also: More than 100 US diplomats have reportedly endorsed a “dissent cable” coming out of Foggy Bottom saying that “that Mr. Trump’s executive order closing the nation’s doors to more than 200 mn people to weed out a handful of would-be terrorists would not make the nation safer and might instead deepen the threat,” the New York Times reports. The news prompted the White House to invite anyone who disagrees with US policy under Trump to hand in their resignations.

“Perhaps other countries need to be added” … Could Egypt be next on Trump’s so-called Muslim ban? Trump’s staff faced a media storm over the past two days following the imposed restrictions on people traveling to the US from seven predominantly Muslim countries. In trying to find any logic behind the move, almost all news anchors mentioned that statistically there were smaller numbers of terrorist coming from the banned countries than from countries considered as “US allies,” naming Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and the UAE. The White House’s talking points were clear, with Press Secretary Sean Spicer on ABC (runtime 14:30), Chief of Staff Reince Priebus on NBC (runtime 12:59), and Advisor Kellyanne Conway on Fox (runtime 17:50) all said the list is just an initial one put by the Obama administration and congress and could be expanded to include other countries whenever “threats” and “risks” are identified going forward.

Hoping for an H-1B to Amreeka? Act now — and don’t hold your breath. Trump’s administration is apparently working on a new executive order on immigration, this time taking aim at the H-1B work visa program, upon which tech companies depend to “hire tens of thousands of employees each year,” Peter Elstrom and Saritha Rai write for Bloomberg. The draft order would force companies to try to hire Americans first before looking to global talent.

Sound smart: The Donald is due to announce his choice of Supreme Court nominee, and the two reported finalists couldn’t be more different. One is the privileged son of a Reagan-era cabinet member who went to Harvard and Oxford and is the pick of conservative jurists. The other, “has blue-collar roots that his backers say would make him a quintessential Trump nominee: A native of a working-class industrial town in Massachusetts, the first in his family to graduate from college, and upwardly mobile without passing through the corridors of the Ivy League.” Read more at Politico.

Public service announcement for residents of Giza: Many of you will be without water for 24 hours on Wednesday. In the only useful information to emerge from Lamees El Hadidy’s show last night, the Holding Company for Water and Wastewater warned that water will be cut for 24 hours on Wednesday in 22 Giza districts due to construction work on the Mohandiseen Metro line (watch, runtime: 7:08).

Happy last day of January. There are 74 days and 18 hours left until our next scheduled vacation. (That would be Easter and Sham El Nessim on Sunday, 16 April and Monday, 17 April.)

The cabinet shuffle expected this week might not include ministers from the economic group, sources told Al Borsa. As readers have probably noticed, we would be very much down with that.

Also expected this week are the long-awaited executive regulations of the value-added tax, according to statements by Finance Minister Amr El Garhy.

Russian aviation security experts are due in Cairo sometime this week to inspect newly-installed biometric scanners and review updated security measures at the airports in Cairo, Hurghada, and Sharm El Sheikh, Ahram Online reports. If all goes well, the two countries will sign an aviation security agreement, ahead of the anticipated return of flights from Moscow. Civil Aviation Minister Sherif Fathi will visit Russia on 8-9 February to meet with Russian officials.

Could Egypt make it to the final of the Afcon? The suspense is killing us as we are sure it is you. Stay tuned tomorrow at 9 pm CLT to find out if Egypt will beat Burkina Faso in the semis.

It was a mixed bag on last night’s talk shows. US President Donald Trump’s “Muslim ban” continued to get attention from the talking heads last night. Al Hayah Al Youm host Lobna Assal spoke with former Assistant Foreign Minister and MP Mohamed El Oraby, who said Trump’s executive order is “racist and it contradicts all human rights laws” (watch; runtime: 5:17).

Backwash from previous night’s airwaves included the “scandal” of the House of Representatives appropriating EGP 18 mn to purchase three cars. According to Yahduth fi Masr’s Sherif Amer, House officials said the sum was spent from FY2015-16 budget to acquire three up-armored vehicles.

Amer also covered what appears to be a more extensive-than-usual shakeup at the Interior Ministry, saying sources at ministry told him that more than 100 mid-level police officials be reassigned, as will 11 assistant and deputy ministers. Reassignment of assistant and deputy interior ministers is traditional whenever a new interior minister is appointed, and we’re heading into a cabinet shuffle — you do the math.

Are Amr Adib and Lamees redecorating? We can think of no other reason why Amr Adib would be so thrilled to be discussing furniture last night, chatting with local manufacturers ahead of Furnex, which runs 1-5 February (watch, runtime: 51:03). Meanwhile, Egyptian ambassador to Kenya Mahmoud Talaat said he will propose holding a furniture exhibition in Nairobi to open the East African market. Trade and Industry Minister Tarek Kabil is travelling to Kenya in mid-February to attend the first meeting of the Egyptian-Kenyan Business Council, the ambassador added (watch, runtime: 2:30).

Adib’s better half was bored out of her tree last night, showcasing a report on a “Book Bike” (watch; runtime: 2:08).

Egypt is the second “Trump trade” after Russia, Charles Robertson, Renaissance Capital’s global chief economist, believes, according to an emailed research report. Robertson remains bullish on Egypt following an investor trip to Cairo as he believes the government has shown zeal in implementing reforms and it is being supported by international financial institutions. He says “shock over the scale of the devaluation and inflation worries are to blame for” the shift towards a less optimistic sentiment over the exchange rate. Robertson argues the EGP could strengthen to EGP 15.50 per USD 1 providing inflation is contained around 20-25%. Robertson’s view is that, bar inflation above 40%, there is little to justify sustained currency weakness from here. The Renaissance global chief economist also believes delivering mechanisms guaranteeing repatriation for pre-2013 investments would also be a positive step, but that international investors are on hold in increasing exposure, “awaiting evidence that the authorities can lift remaining capital controls without significant further Egyptian pound weakness.” He deviates from the projections of the IMF and Egyptian government of GDP growth of 4% in expecting the economy to grow only by 3% in FY2017-18 but to go over IMF projection in the following three years to double to 6% per annum.

The government has no intention of moving forward with another international bond issue this fiscal year on the back of the successful USD 4 bn eurobond sale, Deputy Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk tells Al Borsa, adding that Egypt reserves right to tap markets again should the need arise. That dovetails with Finance Minister Amr El Garhy’s statement earlier this week that the government is exploring the possible issuance of JPY and RMB-denominated bonds, suggesting that the earliest another bond offering could follow would be July at the start of the new fiscal year. El Garhy had also stated back in November that Egypt could issue USD 5-6 bn “all in all” in eurobonds through 2017. Indicators show that the bonds listed on the Luxembourg Stock Exchange are doing well, continuing to hover at around USD 100, which is close to the offering price, said Kouchouk.

While this may be the government’s only international bond issue of the fiscal year ending in June 2017, the National Bank of Egypt is planning for a USD 500 mn to USD 1 bn international bond issue this year with Citi, JP Morgan, HSBC, Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, and BNP Paribas and nine other candidates vying for a chance to manage the issue.

El Garhy spoke of how well the eurobond was received, describing the issue as “pitch perfect,” in a speech to Beltone Financial’s "Africa’s Era, Egypt’s Moment" conference. He stressed the need to diversify the economy further by relying on well-targeted investments, foreign and otherwise, especially in light of how hard declining tourism revenues have hit us. Investment Minister Dalia Khorshid was also present at the conference and talked up the reform agenda to representatives of around 80 global companies and funds, Al Borsa reports.

And while we’re on sovereign debt, CBE governor Tarek Amer denied reports that Egypt is in talks with the Saudi government to extend a USD 500 mn deposit. He didn’t delve into the issue, saying only that no talks are underway. Saudi Arabia has USD 8 bn in deposits in Egypt by Al Borsa’s count — we’ve been pulling them in at a rate of USD 2 bn a year since 2013, with the exception of one USD 500 mn deposit made in 2011. Amer did state that the CBE has apparently made good on its USD 720 mn repayment to the Paris Club which was due this month. Egypt, which owes the Paris Club a total of around USD 3.5 bn as of late last year, will make its next scheduled payment in July.

The Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) signed nine agreements worth USD 15 bn in 2016, according to a yearly performance report picked up by the press last night. Four of these agreements came after years of fruitless talks, such as the USD 200 mn investment by TEDA. Other agreements include the EUR 4 bn pharma city and a USD 200 mn agreement with ASK-Capital. The authority is following a “slow and steady” investment strategy that is focused first on infrastructure development in the area, Head Ahmed Darwish said. The SCzone is reportedly planning USD 2 bn worth of new investments in 2017 and is already in talks with Singapore’s PSA International to build a container terminal in East Port Said, as well as Toyota and Japan’s NYK over a platform for cars, Al Borsa said.

Why, Lord, why? Consumer Protection Agency is getting the power of arrest. The House of Representatives’ Economic Committee has approved giving the CPA — the state agency behind such brilliant measures as the Smiley Face initiative — power of arrest under the amendments to the Consumer Protection Act that are currently before the House, Al Borsa said. The CPA has seen its power increase substantially over the past months as a faction within government angles to use it as the speartip in combatting inflation. As it stands, the authority can only refer a case to the Prosecutor General’s Office for investigation (when it’s not pulling advertisements off the air, that is). A move is also afoot to make the CPA an independent authority reporting directly to the prime minister’s office. The legislation could also empower the CPA to enforce price caps, a measure support by some factions in government and vocally advocated by CPA chief Atef Yacoub. The changes to the Consumer Protection Act should be finalized in February, at which time the bill would go on the legislative agenda for the House as a whole.

The Tourism Development Authority (TDA) will postpone land tenders until the House of Representatives signs off on the Investment Act in order to avoid contradictions between the terms of the tenders and the new legislation, sources from the authority told Al Borsa. The TDA is also planning to reprice the land it will be offering to investors after the Investment Act is approved. As we noted earlier this week, the State Council (Maglis El Dowla) has completed its review of the Investment Act and has sent it to the House of Representatives for a vote.

An EgyptAir flight from Paris returned to Charles de Gaulle after pilots were alerted to a malfunction on the Cairo-bound Airbus. Another aircraft was sent in its place, the airline said in a statement, according to Al Borsa.

CORRECTION- President Abdel Fattah El Sisi met with the president of Congo-Brazzaville Denis Sassou Nguesso in Addis Ababa. We said yesterday that El Sisi was set to meet with the president of Congo. The information was corrected on our website.

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Emerging markets stocks are on track to close today their best month since March 2016 as EM investors “are shrugging off worries about the potential negative impact of a Donald Trump presidency to join the wider stock market boom,” the Financial Times notes, saying the MSCI EM Index has “hit its highest level since October … The index, which covers 85 per cent of the free-float adjusted market capitalisation in the 23 largest emerging markets, has climbed 6.3 per cent in January, putting it on track for its best month since March by a comfortable margin.”

But will it last? Nomura is reasonably typical of those arguing that “‘America First’ means emerging markets last.” Nomura argues that in the short term, EM will be hit by “a faster Fed hiking cycle and a strengthening of the USD, which exposes emerging markets … to capital outflows and credit defaults. Also boding ill for many (but not all) emerging economies, it says, are “the triumvirate of rising U.S. trade protectionism, tougher immigration rules and a reassessment of U.S. foreign policy positions.”

With that in mind, Trump’s apparent preference for a weaker greenback would be good for EM, CNBC argues in a roundup of analyst views that suggests “Like the premature report of Mark Twain’s death more than a century ago, rumors of the demise of emerging market growth in the era of President Donald Trump may be greatly exaggerated.” Want more? Eaton Vance’s Michael Cirami did the duty on Bloomberg yesterday (watch, runtime: 4:34). The upshot? Nobody has a clue.

Other stories from regional and global EM and frontier markets worth noting this morning:

• Lebanon is the latest challenger to Egypt’s position as a potential eastern Med gas hub, lawyer Niazi Kabalan from Pinsent Masons writes for the Financial Times — but Beirut will need to get its regulatory regime right.
• Former IMF and IIF official George Abed argues in the same newspaper that it might be time for Saudi Arabia to start mulling a move away from the SAR’s peg to the USD.

The US media is fascinated that Egypt and Saudi Arabia aren’t criticizing US President Donald Trump. Witness stories by the Voice of America (“Why Saudi Arabia, Egypt Have Kept Mum About Muslim Travel Ban”), Politico (“Despite travel ban, Arab leaders line up to talk to Trump”) and the Wall Street Journal (“U.S. Travel Restrictions Put Saudi Arabia in a Bind”).

The mindset that brings you these stories suggests a slippery slope to a place where we’re back to a daily recitation of “Egypt’s Latest Outrage” (and yes, that was an actual headline atop an editorial in the New York Times.)

Planetary scientist Essam Heggy is “leading a peaceful revolution in Egypt,” Tafline Laylin writes in OZY. Laylin writes about Heggy speaking up against a series of topics, including kofta-gate and other topics including illiteracy, religious intolerance, disease, terrorism, and corruption, which he views as signs of “a society lacking scientific reasoning.” Laylin claims Heggy is going to challenge President Abdel Fattah El Sisi in the 2018 presidential elections.

The looming threat of terrorism is bringing Hamas and Egypt closer together, argues Reuven Berko for Israel Hayoum. Egypt sees Hamas could be a useful ally in fighting Daesh as Hamas is now starting to see hardline terrorists as a threat after losing members that have joined Daeshbags fighting in Sinai.

Also worth noting this morning if you have a moment:

• Some in Egypt’s Christian community are concerned that US President Donald Trump has made an exception in his refugee ban for minorities in Muslim-majority countries, Al-Bawaba reports.
• Nigeria could remedy its budget deficit and encourage foreign currency inflows if it were to adopt “Egypt-style” reform measures, despite the “short-term pain to consumers,” Lolade Akinmurele writes on Naija247News;
• Radio France has a report about the Grand Egyptian Museumin Cairo, with a picture of latest stages of construction ahead of the slated 2018 opening;
• Cyprus seems to be growing on the Egyptians as data from the Cyprus Tourism Organization shows that the number of Egyptian tourists increased by 35.4% in 2016 compared to 2015, reports the Famagusta Gazette;
• The Huffington Post published an excerpt of Egyptian-Canadian journalist Mohamed Fahmy’s memoir, The Marriott Cell, which tells the story of his “dramatic” arrest and trial on charges of terrorism.

Egypt could learn a thing or two from Morocco’s (successful) experience with combating poverty: In 1984, Morocco was in the midst of an economic crisis, complete with a budget deficit, dwindling foreign reserves, and a weak currency, but managed to turn the situation around by correctly managing its resources and relying on sustainable development, Hany El Salamouny writes in a column penned for Al Masry Al Youm.

Is Egypt in the midst of its own little trade war with Sudan? The rhetoric from the Egyptian government would imply that, at the very least, there is major discord between the two due to what it claims is Sudan’s “stringent restrictions” and “violations of regional trade agreements.” Yesterday, the head of the Trade and Industry Ministry’s foreign trade office Sa’ad Abdullah denounced Sudan’s alleged violations of the COMESA free trade agreements signed by the two countries. Back in June, Sudan revoked customs tariff exemptions provided by COMESA for a number of goods imported from Egypt, including ceramics. Last Friday, the government urged Sudan to lift all restrictions on Egyptian agricultural goods imposed last September when a number of countries boycotted Egypt’s goods following the hepatitis A strawberry scare, Sudan Tribune reports. The statements came following a meeting between the foreign ministers of both countries at the AU summit.

The tussle is impacting businesses, including La Vache Qui Rit distributor Bel Egypt, which exports to Sudan. The 40% tariffs the company pays to export to Khartoum, coupled with the float has made it unfeasible to export there, said a company executive.

Egypt’s recourse? According to Abdullah, there is none, Al Mal reports. Sudan is a supplier of key strategic goods to Egypt. Not to mention its importance over Nile water rights and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam issue. Egypt will have to play nice with Sudan and attempt to reach a diplomatic solution.

The Trade Ministry will be resuming free-trade talks with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in March, Al Borsa says. The Russia-backed EAEU had agreed in December to start negotiations over the creation of free trade zones with Egypt, Iran, India, and Singapore.

AfDB loan approval: The House of Representatives’ legislative committee approved yesterday the USD 1.5 bn AfDB loan, Al Shorouk reports.

An Egyptian-Turkish business forum voiced its hope for improving relations between Ankara and Cairo, Anadolu Agency reported. Rifat Hisarciklioglu, president of the Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey, was in Egypt for a forum organized by the Federation of Egyptian Chambers of Commerce. “We want to increase [Turkish] investment and exports to Egypt and the world,” he said. The delegation vowed to double Turkish investments in Egypt from USD 5 bn to USD 10 bn, Al Borsa reported.

Kuwait has reportedly doubled the monthly amounts of crude to be stored in Egypt to 4 mn bbl, Al Masry Al Youm reported. The Kuwait Petroleum Corporation renewed its contract this month with SUMED to strengthen its presence in Mediterranean countries, Kuwait’s state newspaper Al Anba reported. The crude is shipped to the Ain Al-Sokhna port, transferred through pipelines to the Sidi Kerir Port, and stored near there before being sold in European markets, sources said.

Regulations governing the collection of this season’s wheat harvest will be announced today by the ministries of agriculture and supply, said Agriculture Ministry spokesperson Hamed Abdel Dayem. These regulations were drawn up with an eye to mitigating the problems that led to last year’s wheat corruption scandal. The announcement will cover the transportation, storage facilities, and payment to farmers, Al Mal reports. It will also cover intermediaries who will be allowed to purchase the wheat from farmers. These are expected to include farmer cooperatives, said Abdel Dayem. Supply Minister Mohamed Ali El Sheikh had stated previously that the private sector would take part in storing the grain in shounas including those developed by Blumberg Grain and at least some of the UAE shounas. After much dispute, the two ministries had settled on a price of EGP 450 per ardib.

Germany’s Aumund Fördertechnik are supplying clinker conveying equipment for six new clinker production lines in Beni Suef, Hub4 reported. The project is being built by the Chengdu Design & Research Institute of Building Materials Industry, a subsidiary of Sinoma International Engineering. The project is scheduled to be completed within the next three years, and the pilot phase set to start as early as December 2017.

Prices of Russian wheat are continuing a three-week rally following increased demand from Egypt, analysts told Reuters’ Arabic service. Egypt bought 410k tonnes of Russian wheat on 26 January. Prices of Russian wheat prices have gone up by USD 1-2.5 per tonne since last week, according to two Russian consulting firms asked by the newswire.

The Agriculture Ministry has asked local fertilizer producers to speed-up their deliveries on January contracts to help close the gap in the market, Al Borsa reported. Fertilizer plants ended their boycott of the ministry on 16 January after the government agreed to hike the price per tonne to EGP 2,959.

South Valley Cement issued a statement to the EGX denying it applied for a new cement license, after reports emerged on Sunday that six companies have filed papers to acquire new licenses. South Valley is one of three companies the Industrial Development Authority had awarded a cement license to following a tender at the end of 2016.

The Pharmacist Syndicate announced it will boycott purchasing medications from producers at the new prices until 10 February, Al Mal reported. The syndicate is demanding pharmacies be allowed to maintain a minimum of 23% profit margins on domestic medications and 15% on imported counterparts. It also calls for margins to be increased to 25% and 18% on domestic and foreign medications, respectively, within 3-6 months when meds are repriced, the syndicate said. As we noted yesterday, the syndicate plans to follow through with their strike on 12 February.

Private carrier Air Cairo has launched weekly flights to Warsaw and Katowice in Poland from Marsa Alam, Al Masry Al Youm reported. The move is part of the Civil Aviation Ministry strategy to expand in European markets. The first group of Polish tourists since the Metrojet flight crash arrived in Sharm El Sheikh last August.

The Alexandria Transport Authority is set to issue tenders for 20 electric buses and 45 trams, making the commuter transport authority the first in the country to use electric buses, Al Borsa reports. Companies from Italy, China, Ukraine, Switzerland, Hungary, and Russia are expected to bid, the newspaper says.

The Principal Bank for Development and Agricultural Credit will be renamed the Egyptian Agriculture Bank and fall under the Central Bank of Egypt’s jurisdiction in March when amendments to the law forming the bank come into effect, Chairman El Sayed El Qusair told Al Masry Al Youm.

The International Cooperation Ministry will be allocating 30% of all SME grants to Upper Egypt-based projects in 2017, to encourage economic development in the area, according to a ministry statement. Minister Sahar Nasr had announced last week that 50% of SME grants in 2017 would be allocated to women.

Maersk Egypt has refused to set a fixed exchange rate on its shipping prices and will instead be charging at the market rate, Maersk operations manager Mohamed Khattab told Al Mal reports. The company said that it will be issuing invoices for loading and unloading in the Damietta and West Port Said ports in USD, and will be collecting the payments in the EGP equivalent according to the exchange rate on the day of payment. The company wants to avoid substantial losses if it sets a fixed rate, said Khattab.

The Planning Ministry has sent the executive regulations of the Civil Service Act to the Egyptian Council of State (Maglis El Dowla) for review ahead of implementation, an unnamed source told Al Borsa reported. The council will review the regulations next week, the source added, stating that the government is looking to implement the regulations by the end of February.

Egyptian football player and Arsenal midfielder Mohamed Elneny will not recover in time for the semifinal match against Burkina Faso in AFCON 2017, coach Hector Cuper told BBC News. Elneny is recovering from a calf strain that left him out of the match against Morocco. Additionally, the squad might be without striker Marwan Mohsen who has complications with his knee, Cuper added.

EFG Hermes was named as one of six MENA constituents in the FTSE4GOOD Emerging Index, launched by FTSE Russel in December 2016. The index tracks the performance of emerging market companies in 20 counties that “have demonstrated exemplary ESG practices.”

African Union member states voted to bring Morocco back into the Union, 33 years after it left the AU over the recognition of the former Western Sahara as an independent member, AFP reported.

The Egyptian Embassy in London has received an Ushabti figurine stolen from an Aswan storage facility in 2013, Ahram Online reported. The figurine will be returned to Egypt soon, the newspaper says. The wooden figuring was originally uncovered in 2009 by a Spanish archaeological mission in Qubet Al Hawa necropolis in Aswan.

MasterCard and Injaz Egypt have launched an eight-month long program to empower Egyptian women entrepreneurs, Al Mal says. 20 teams of female entrepreneurs will win admission to the program, which will give them a shot at becoming one of five teams to receive financial and legal support to start their own businesses.

The Cairo-set political thriller “The Nile Hilton Incident” landed a Grand Jury award at the Sundance film festival for drama in the world cinema category, Ahram Online reported. Syrian documentary Last Men In Aleppo went home with best documentary in world cinema.