PM — Casualties in Ukraine rise as Moscow fails to capture a major cities in Ukraine (for now).

UKRAINE WATCH- The war in Ukraine is growing deadlier as fighting enters its sixth day, as more than 70 Ukrainian soldiers were killed after a Russian artillery struck a military base overnight in the town of Okhtyrka, between Kharkiv and Kyiv, Reuters reports. At least 10 people were killed and 35 were injured in separate rocket strikes on the country’s largest second city, Kharkiv, Ukraine’s Interior Ministry said. The assault on Kharkiv came as earlier talks along the Berlarusian border between Russia and Ukraine failed to broker a ceasefire, with more talks set to be held in the coming days at an unspecified time.

Moscow still has its eyes on Kyiv, with an armored column bearing down on the Ukrainian capital after the deadly bombing on Kharkiv, Reuters reported. This comes hours after satellite images showed a mass military convoy north of the Ukrainian capital stretching for 65km (40 miles), US satellite company Maxar said.

Russia shows no signs of pulling back, stressing that the armed forces will continue their “military operation” in Ukraine until their goals are met, Interfax reported Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu as saying.

Russian forces have yet to successfully capture any major city in Ukraine, but can be expected to regroup and launch a better-planned offensive over the next 24-72 hours, the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its latest report on the conflict. “The Ukrainian military likely cannot prevent Russian forces from enveloping or encircling Kyiv if the Russians send enough combat power, but likely can make Russian efforts to gain control of the city itself extremely costly and possibly unsuccessful,” ISW says.

Death toll: Ukraine said that 5,710 Russian troops have been killed since the beginning of the invasion, according to Ukraine’s General Staff of the Armed Forces. Ukraine has reportedly also captured 200 Russian prisoners.

More casualties among civilians: An estimated 136 civilians have been killed in Ukraine since the war broke, including 13 children. Around 400 civilians have been injured, including 26 children, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights spokesperson Liz Throssell told a briefing.

On the diplomatic front, the International Criminal Court said it will launch its own investigation, as there is “reasonable basis” to believe that war crimes have been committed against Ukraine during the Russian invasion.

Here at home, G7 ambassadors in Cairo voiced their support for Ukraine, and condemned the invasion, the ambassadors said in a statement (pdf) today. The group is lobbying Egypt to side with Ukraine in the next emergency session by the UN General Assembly set for this week.

Meanwhile, Social media giants are blocking Russian media outlets in the EU: Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, and TikTok have all taken steps to remove content from Russian state media outlets such as RT and Sputnik from their platforms in the EU, according to Business Insider. This is the latest in a series of moves by large tech companies to limit Russia’s influence through their platforms, with both Meta and Google announcing last weekend that Russian media would not be able to place ads or monetize content on their sites. Meta’s president of global policy, Nick Clegg, said on Twitter that more governments have also requested a ban on Russian state media. Twitter itself, however, has not yet announced if it will follow suit.

Russia could retaliate with punitive measures on Meta and Google after the two companies failed to open local offices and take other measures required by a communications law, according to Reuters. Russian legislation forces foreign social media companies with more than 500k daily users to open local offices or face measures such as fines or an outright ban. State communications regulator Roskomnadzor listed 13 companies it wanted to adhere to this decision and said it would start imposing restrictions by the end of February. However, Apple and Spotify are the only two companies to comply with the deadline, while Google, Meta, Twitter, TikTok, and Zoom aren’t fully compliant, which Russia could use as grounds for a retaliatory measure.

THE BIG STORY AT HOME TODAY-

GB Auto is mulling selling down a portion of its stake in Netherlands-based MNT Investments, which is majority-owned by GB Auto’s subsidiary GB Capital, the company announced in a regulatory filing (pdf). The statement did not specify the number of shares GB Capital is selling from its stake, but said that the decision to look into the sale came after other MNT Investment shareholders expressed interest in selling a portion of their stakes. The company did not specify who the other shareholders are.

** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

• State grain buyer GASC was forced to cancel its wheat tender yesterday on the back of high prices, as global grain markets face turmoil on the back of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The two countries together account for nearly a third of the world’s wheat supply, and some 60-80% of our grain imports at any given time.
• Brimore invests USD 5 mn in a pre-seed round for logistics arm Milezmore + Milango acquires rival Circle: Social commerce startup Brimore has invested USD 5 mn in a pre-seed round for its delivery and logistics services arm Milezmore, while Digital services provider Milango has acquired rival Circle for an undisclosed sum.
• Wheat, bread, and babies: Supply Minister Ali El Moselhy reviewed the scenarios the government is considering for raising the price of subsidized bread — including replacing support in banknote form for “those who really need it.” Meanwhile, Financial incentives for not popping out babies are on the table under a new national family planning initiative, Cairo University economics professor Amr Soliman said.

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HAPPENING NOW- EBRD Vice President for Policy and Partnerships Mark Bowman is in town for a week-long visit, during which he is set to meet with government officials and the business community to discuss COP27, the bank’s new country strategy, and a strategy for recovery from the pandemic, according to a press release (pdf). Bowman and his delegation will meet with International Cooperation Minister Rania Al Mashat, Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait, Oil Minister Tarek El Molla, Environment Minister Yasmine Fouad, and Planning Minister Hala El Said.

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FOR TOMORROW- Consoleya is holding its second Women Meet-up tomorrow to discuss topics including inclusivity in investment. The agenda includes a panel discussion on gender-lens funding here in Egypt.

???? CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

It’s the start of a new month. The key news triggers to keep your eye on:

• PMI: Purchasing managers’ index figures for February for Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar will be released this Thursday, 3 March.
• Foreign reserves: February’s foreign reserves figures will most likely be announced this week or next.
• Inflation: Inflation figures for February will be released on Thursday, 10 March.
• Interest rates: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will hold its next monetary policy meeting on Thursday, 24 March.

Contemporary art and culture center Darb1718 is hosting its 3031 Art Festival from 4-12 March on its premises in Fustat, Old Cairo. Unique collections of multidisciplinary art will be on display along with live music, dance, theater performances, and interactive workshops. Guest speakers Adsum Art Consultancy will be on hand to discuss investing in art. Catch a full day of activities from 1:00pm–9:30pm on weekends and weekdays from 4:00pm–10:00pm

The Diarna Handicrafts Fair kicked off last Thursday and runs through 7 March at Cairo Festival City from 10am until 10pm daily.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- We’re experiencing a couple of days of hot weather in the capital city, with the mercury reaching 25°C today and 30°C tomorrow, according to our favorite weather app. Look for more seasonally appropriate temps in the 20-24°C range Thursday through the weekend before things get hot again the first few days of next week. There’s no real heat in store for Alexandria, where you can expect a daytime high of 21°C today and 24°C tomorrow.

As global warming’s impact accelerates, the world could soon be lacking enough real snow to hold the Winter Olympics, warns a new study led by researchers from the University of Waterloo. The study predicts that climate change will make it difficult for nearly all prior host cities for the Olympics to hold outdoor winter sports competitions. The optimal weather conditions for the Winter Olympics would see temperatures between −10°C and −1°C, days with more than 10cm of natural snow, and less than 1 mm of rain. These conditions ensure that the snow sport competitions are safe for the athletes.

The impending problem already began to make itself known at this year’s Beijing Winter Olympics, with China using fake snow to cover almost 100% of its needs. The lack of abundant snow in the future could jeopardize certain sports as there are fewer venues to compete in, therefore, fewer competitions and less training ground, writes Quartz.

Toyota will restart operations tomorrow after manufacturing was halted yesterday due to a supplier being hit by a cyberattack, according to Reuters. Today’s suspension dropped output by around 13k vehicles. There is still no information on who was behind the attack or what the motive was, but the press is linking the hacking to Japan deciding to impose sanctions on Russia due to the Ukraine invasion. The incident has also called into question how vulnerable Japan’s supply chains are after the attack brought “one of the world's mightiest manufacturers to a domestic standstill.”

???? ON THE TUBE TONIGHT-
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Chicago Party Aunt: What happens when Netflix brings a Twitter account to life: Late last year, Netflix introduced us to the first season of Chicago Party Aunt, an eight-episode animated series based on the eponymous Twitter account run by Chris Witaske — one of the show’s creators. The series follows Diane Dunbrowski, a 40-something-year-old who refuses to come to terms with her age and stop partying, causing her husband to leave and putting her job at risk. Through the eight-episode run, we get to see Dunbrowski grow and mature as she takes in her nephew Daniel, who decides to live with his aunt during his gap year instead of attending Stanford University. It tackles adult themes through a humorous dialogue, perfect for putting on while you have your dinner after a long day’s work.

⚽ It’s a relatively quiet day in the football world, but there are a few good matches to keep us entertained. First up: AC Milan is clashing with Inter Milan at 10pm in the first leg of Coppa Italia’s semi-final.

In the Premier League, Burnley will go head to head with Leicester City at 9:45pm, while the FA Cup will see more games with Peterborough v Manchester City at 9:15pm, Crystal Palace v Stoke City at 9:30pm, and Middlesbrough v Tottenham Hotspur at 9:55pm.

Back at home, we’re still waiting for the second half of the game between El Gouna and the National Bank of Egypt to begin, with Ismaily SC playing later against Misr Lel Makkasa at 5:30pm. Later tonight, Al Ahly will play against Pharco at 8pm.

Zamalek FC bid farewell to head coach Patrice Carteron yesterday. This came following a streak of losses, both locally and regionally, most recently, the club lost 3-1 against Wydad Athletic Club in the African Champions League, prior to which the club lost 2-0 to Smouha. Former Zamalek player Osama Nabih will fill Carteron’s shoes until the club finds a replacement.

????EAT THIS TONIGHT-

Want a Pulp Fiction-themed night out? Check out Juke’s Diner, an authentic American diner in Maadi. The diner offers a variety of the signature diner foods, including sliders, wings and milkshakes. The restaurant comes from the founders of the Italian Don Paolo and gets its name from the colorful jukebox — a diner staple — sitting proudly in the corner, with plans to include it in all future branches.

???? OUT AND ABOUT-

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Generation RGB: AUC’s Tahrir Culture Center has an exhibition showcasing graphic design students’ most memorable graduation projects — dubbed Generation RGB. Spread across three showrooms, the exhibitions include a variety of innovative projects covering topics such as visual impairment, sustainability and media literacy. The exhibition kicked off on 17 February and is running until 7 March, from 10am-9pm daily.

Zamalek’s Picasso Art Gallery is hosting Salah Enani’s latest exhibition titled “Laugh, Play, Serious & Love.” The exhibition is running until 12 March, from 11am-9pm daily, except for Sundays.

Garden City’s Duroub Gallery is showcasing artist Farah El Samahy’s latest works in her exhibition titled “Ahlan Bema Howa Aty.” The exhibition is ongoing until 10 March, from 11am – 7am daily, except for Fridays.

???? UNDER THE LAMPLIGHT-

Chasing History: A Kid in The Newsroom — the story of half of the journalistic duo who uncovered the Watergate scandal: Carl Bernstein, Pulitzer Prize-decorated journalist and titan of investigative journalism, recounts his teenage years — before he and Bob Woodward played an integral role in pushing US President Richard Nixon to resign from office. Bernstein’s best-selling memoir is a coming-of-age story of an insecure high schooler’s experiences during an unprecedented time in American history. The now-accomplished journalist spent his younger days honing his craft by observing renowned journalists at The Washington Star, and reminisces in the memoir about how he got the chance to help cover once-in-a-lifetime historical events like the Cold War and the space race. The memoir’s exploration, through the eyes of a young Bernstein, inevitably leads the reader to make pertinent connections between past and present, including the issues of racism and police brutality.

Chasing History can be read as “a call for a debate that we should be having but aren’t — about how to support the kind of public-service-minded, labor-intensive journalism that inspired Bernstein to get into the business,” according to a Washington Post review of the memoir. The Guardian is also out with a raving review.

OUR ANALYST OF THE WEEK- Mohamed Rady, investment banking senior associate at Zilla Capital (LinkedIn).

My name is Mohamed Rady and I’m an investment banking senior associate at Zilla Capital. I graduated from AUC, where I majored in accounting and minored in economics. I started my career as a transactions and advisory team intern at PwC before exploring the banking sector as an equity trader. I then became a private equity analyst at Catalyst Partners Egypt, where I discovered my passion for investing. Following my tenure at Catalyst, I joined Zilla Capital, where I’ve been happily working for the past two years.

For me, investment banking is truly fulfilling. It’s a dynamic and intellectually stimulating sector, where I’m constantly exposed to new industries that pose interesting challenges. I also love the interaction with management teams from different companies. I get to meet people from all walks of life.

Don’t get me wrong, the job comes with challenges that require you to think outside of the box. Understanding firms’ value propositions and how to differentiate each company from its competitors, and the specific financial and legal constraints that come with each potential investment is no walk in the park. But the challenges make me enjoy investment all the more.

The worst part of the job is pulling all-nighters, and personally investing in a transaction for a long time and then just having it fall apart through no fault of your own. There’s a lot of stress from managing various stakeholders, as well as having to work under the pressure of tight deadlines. You have to be persistent and adaptable to cope with the requirements of this job.

I personally believe that 2022 will be a good year for investment in Egypt. I believe the trend in investment banking will be robust M&A activity, building on what we saw last year. I also think the state privatization program will be crucial in increasing liquidity and reviving trading volumes, thereby attracting more institutional and foreign investors to the Egyptian market. Of course, investor hesitancy is surging amid the war in Ukraine, but Egypt continues to outperform other emerging markets.

Sectors that I think are gems with a lot of potential are F&B, FMCG, healthcare, and education. We’re noticing a lot of interest from investors to tap into these underserved markets. Consumption is increasing, and the macro indicators are improving, so there’s great potential for growth when it comes to the consumer sector. Tech is also part of the outlook for sure: E-commerce, fintech, and similar sectors proved their resilience during the pandemic.

My first step before I decide on an investment is to assess the management team of the target company. Then I look at its financial indicators and potential for growth. Finally, I thoroughly study the company’s structure: How can it onboard investors and does it have a clear exit strategy? If those all line up, I can confidently recommend the investment.

My theory of investment is having a balance between risk and reward. That doesn’t mean that I’m on the conservative side, per se. When you invest in a company, you’re creating value, and when you exit eventually, you’re going to IPO based on the value you create. So it’ s only logical that the return should be proportionate to the risk profile you accommodate.

The last great thing I watched was Succession on OSN. The show brilliantly portrays conflicts and power struggles within this unorthodox family of media moguls. Aside from the great acting and sublime soundtrack, the show also captivated me because it partly focuses on M&A and investments in general [laughs]. One of the best series I’ve watched in a while. [EDITOR’S NOTE: We concur, and we definitely don’t bang on about Succession whenever we get the chance.]

I’m currently reading Icarus: The Life and Death of The Abraaj Group by Brian Brivati. Based on interviews with key personnel, the book explores what the Abraaj Group was trying to do through impact investing, how it was portrayed by the media, and how it ultimately fell apart. A very interesting read.

In my downtime I enjoy playing padel tennis and football. I’m also passionate about cars, so naturally I follow Formula One. To disconnect from work, I go out and travel with my friends whenever I get the chance. That is, of course, when I actually have down time [laughs].

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MARKET ROUNDUP-

The EGX30 rose 1.2% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 1 bn (0.3% below the 90-day average). Foreign investors were net sellers. The index is down 5.6% YTD.

In the green: Eastern Company (+7.8%), Heliopolis Housing (+5.9%) and Rameda (+5.6%).

In the red: CIRA (-0.7%), Abu Qir Fertilizers (-0.5%) and CIB (-0.2%).