PM — Brain shortcuts

Good afternoon, friends. We’ve made it to the weekend after a whirlwind week for us here at Enterprise — and a particularly busy and interesting news week for Omm El Donia at large.

THE BIG STORIES TODAY

#1- Deval drives inflation to five-year high: Urban annual inflation accelerated to 18.7% in November, up from 16.2% in October, according to figures from state statistics agency Capmas. November’s inflation figures are the highest in nearly five years, driven primarily by rising food and beverage prices.

#2- Our friend Hisham Ezz El Arab is now non-executive chairman at CIB, after the bank’s board of directors appointed him to the position with the Central Bank of Egypt’s blessing, according to a disclosure (pdf) to the bourse. Ezz El Arab takes over the position from Sherif Samy, who held the position since October 2020. Samy will remain on the bank’s board as a non-executive member.

#3- FinMin extends e-invoicing registration deadline for the self-employed: Self-employed individuals — including doctors, pharmacists, and lawyers — now have until 30 April, 2023 to register with the Tax Authority’s e-invoicing system, after the Finance Ministry extended the deadline from next Thursday, 15 December, according to a statement. The ministry pushed the cut-off date to help the self-employed get their ducks in a row, while the ministry sets up a committee to address problems they may face, the statement says.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD

We have a thoroughly mixed bag of nuts and bolts in the international business press this afternoon. The Financial Times is leading its front page with the immediate effect of China rolling back its covid-zero policies — including the country swiftly running out of covid-19 medication as the virus spreads, while CNBC looks at what’s in store for Europe’s energy grid as temperatures begin to drop significantly over the next few days and the continent continues to struggle with an energy shortage. Elsewhere, the latest updates on the ground in the Russia-Ukraine war are getting prominence in Reuters.

HAPPENING NOW-

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi landed in Riyadh to attend the China-Arab States Summit, according to an Ittihadiya statement. The summit, which kicks off tomorrow, will coincide with Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to the kingdom.

The first session of the cabinet’s Information and Decision Support Center’s (IDSC) new intellectual forum is underway. The weekly forum will see experts including government officials, academics, representatives of multilateral institutions, MPs, and national dialogue members meet to discuss key policy questions and make recommendations on them to the prime minister, according to a statement

** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

• Green hydrogen and NWFE are key for the private sector coming out of COP27: Our inaugural Enterprise Climate X Forum kicked off earlier this week with a panel on green hydrogen and the government’s flagship Nexus on Water, Food and Energy (NWFE) program.
• More green hydrogen momentum: Egypt signed MoUs with seven companies and consortiums to conduct feasibility studies on new projects to produce green hydrogen and its derivatives.
• Sovereign sukuk + sustainable bond issuances coming this FY? The Finance Ministry is planning to sell USD 1.5-2.5 bn of sukuk and USD 500 mn of sustainable development bonds before the end of the current fiscal year.

???? CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Egyptian Private Equity Association is hosting a healthcare summit next Monday, 12 December. The event will be held under the auspices of the finance and planning ministries. You can check out the agenda here (pdf) and register for the summit here.

Later this month: The Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday, 22 December to review interest rates.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- We have a lovely sunny weekend to look forward to with temperatures in Cairo expected to hit highs of 24-25°C during the day on Friday and Saturday before falling to 13-14°C in the evening.

Europe is bidding airplane mode farewell but the US is still spooked: The European Commission moved to green light airlines to provide 5G technology on their planes allowing passengers to use their phones on flights, The Washington Post reports. Across the pond, the US still fears 5G will interfere with planes and limit cell carriers’ access to the frequency around airports. Earlier this year flights were canceled or diverted on concerns that 5G antennas on the ground would interfere with airplane equipment.

People rambling on their phones during flights is another concern: Other than technical concerns, forcing passengers to put their phones on airplane mode (or switching them off) was helping to keep airplanes quieter. The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) recently ended a 2013 regulatory proceeding that would have allowed passengers to make calls and send texts on US airlines, Reuters reports. Airline pilots and flight attendants stood in staunch opposition to the proceeding.

The luxury travel market isn’t going to tank amid rising inflation — with wealthy travelers to thank. As soaring inflation rates across the globe has some in the tourism and aviation industries concerned about a downturn in travel activity, the wealthiest travels appear to be more than ready to earmark more of their spending on trips, according to an American Express and Altiant report picked up by Bloomberg. The report finds that 60% of wealthy travelers intend to spend more on travel next year than they do on purchasing material goods while only 10% said they’ll cut back.

What does this mean for climate concerns from all those planes? The report — which surveyed 1.2k high-net-worth travelers concentrated in Asia, Europe and the Americas — showed that travelers are becoming more aware of carbon emissions, with 70% of respondents saying that seeing carbon emissions data on their flights or vacation choices “is very or somewhat influential in their booking decisions.” Nearly half of those surveyed indicated their intention to take more environmentally friendly vacations, with 81% of Chinese travelers fully on board with this decision — even if it meant paying a little bit extra.

Fans at the World Cup in Qatar are on track to spend record amounts at tournament venues, Bloomberg reports. Fans have already spent more than they did at the 2014 Brazil World Cup and 89% of what they spent in Russia in 2018, with 10 more days to go before the end of the tournament, according to data from payment partner Visa. The data tracks spending on its cards at all World Cup venues from the beginning of the event through 2 December. Payments on merchandise made up nearly half of total spending while spending on food and beverages made up 36%, despite ethanolic beer being banned. Fans at the Saudi v Mexico group stage match spent the most overall. Qatar expects the championship will net revenues of USD 17 bn for the country’s economy — far eclipsing the USD 4.5 bn brought in at the 2018 tournament.

???? ON THE TUBE TONIGHT-
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The Christmas season brings a lot of food — and food-related shows: The second season of Sugar Rush is now available on Netflix, with most scrumptious Christmas desserts cooked in all shapes and sizes — cupcakes, cookies, puddings, cake, you name it. Each episode runs a new Christmas theme and hosts a guest judge, who decides which teams will make it to the next round. The teams are pressed for time to prepare the best dessert, while maintaining their positive holiday spirit. The winning team will receive a USD 10k grand prize. We recommend you watch the heated Christmas Countdown episode with NBA Champion Chris Bosh as guest judge.

⚽The World Cup quarter final matches will begin on Friday and Saturday, to determine the four teams that will advance to the semifinals. But first:

In the Egyptian league today: Future faces Al Ittihad Al Sakandary at 5pm and Ceramica Cleopatra v Ismailia has a 7pm kick-off time.

In a friendly match today, Arsenal will play Lyon in Dubai (Dubai Super Cup) at 5:30pm.

Back in Qatar, Brazil and Croatia will set the bar for the quarter finals at 5pm tomorrow. Brazil, which is most widely expected to take home the trophy, has a roster of players filling the main positions in the field, while Croatia is trying to beat its second-place landing in the 2018 World Cup.

Argentina and the Netherlands will hit the field at 9pm to fight for a spot in the semifinals. The Tango dancers haven’t secured a World Cup trophy since Maradona led them to victory in 1986. Messi previously tasted defeat in the 2014 final match against the Germans, but with this year set to be his last World Cup all eyes will be on the Paris Saint Germain star to see whether he will lead his team to victory this time around. Meanwhile, the Netherlands missed the previous World Cup after finishing second and third in 2010 and 2014, respectively.

Meanwhile, Morocco wants to prove it’s the World Cup’s “Black Horse” when it battles it out with Portugal on Saturday at 5pm. Morocco is the last remaining African country in the World Cup and the first Arab country in history to make it this far in the championship, so it’s going to have a whole lotta fans in our neck of the woods cheering it on. Portugal, on the other hand, comes into this match with a star-studded lineup, thrilled after their victory over Switzerland with six goals in the 16th round.

Rounding out the quarterfinal round, England and France will meet on Saturday at 9pm. France is the defending champion looking to match the feats of Italy and Brazil — the only two teams who have clinched two consecutive World Cup titles. England, whose performance is improving with each encounter, hopes to make it to the semifinals and eventually secure the title that has eluded them since 1966.

???? EAT THIS TONIGHT-

Kyuka brings a fresh-sushi experience to Waterway 2: Apart from its pleasing aesthetic and understated social media feed, Kyuka adds a unique twist to its sushi rolls. It stands out by using premium ingredients, carefully mixing them to create exceptional sushi that really hits the spot. Kyuka also took their dishes a step further with top-notch fundamentals of plating — ensuring every order is served looking like a piece of art. It introduced creative bite-sized sushi balls that are meant to give you a taste of unusual, yet exquisite flavor. For non-sushi eaters, Kyuka has a wide variety of options to choose from. We are especially fond of the shrimp skewers, poke bowls, and vegetable noodles.

???? OUT AND ABOUT-
(all times CLT)

It’s pop night tonight at The Tap West with DJ AK and Armen V playing the best RnB and HipHop hits at 9pm.

Looking for a good laugh? Make sure to attend tonight’s Crowd Set Stand Up Comedy with Mina Selim, Walid Khairy and Ahmed Hassan at Makan, in Downtown Cairo, at 8pm.

Don’t miss out on Indie-folk night with Luka Wel Batteekh and Kahareb at Cairo Jazz Club in Agouza, at 9pm. DJ Mohamed Sadek will also be ending the night with an incredible set.

???? EARS TO THE GROUND-

This is not a podcast for the faint of heart: Criminal gets into unusual murder situations that require extensive investigations to wrap your head around what happened — and will most likely leave you perplexed. Journalist Phoebe Judge, who hosts the show, sets the tone with her clear and thrilling voice as she begins explaining each episode’s case. Phoebe’s story-telling abilities are a key factor in the podcast’s success — just listening to the way she dives into the graphic details gives us goosebumps. We were especially baffled by The Tylenol Murders episode, which breaks down the silent murder of three happy and healthy family members in Chicago.

???? UNDER THE LAMPLIGHT-

“I’m Coming, O Light”: A heartfelt memoir written by the late Egyptian doctor and awardwinning writer and journalist, Mohamed AboulGheit. The book was published by Dar Al Shorouk yesterday, in memory of AboulGheit — who passed away on Monday. In his book, AboulGheit documented his battle with stomach cancer by delving into the different aspects of his treatment journey, and contemplating the meaning behind life, death, oblivion, and eternity. He sought to overcome time and face the concept of death by writing about events, emotions, and stories that he experienced during his lifetime — during and before his illness — with the intention of giving hope to whoever reads it. The book is divided into 14 parts, each of which contains inspiring passages to live by — some of which were previously published on the author’s Facebook page. The book is available at Al Shorouk bookstores, and on Amazon Kindle, Google Play Box, and the Abjad application. The book’s editor, Ahmed Samir, said yesterday on Facebook that the book’s net proceeds will be donated to the late writer’s family.

The EGX30 rose 0.4% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 2.74 bn. Foreign investors were net buyers. The index is up 24.2% YTD.

In the green: AMOC (+7.7%), Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (+7.6%) and Elswedy Electric (+6.0%).

In the red: Oriental Weavers (-3.9%), e-Finance (-2.6%) and Fawry (-2.3%).

Our brain: A flawed masterpiece. On average, our minds go through 74GB of information every day, with a constant stream of information from all the different devices we use, on top of the information-dense surroundings of urban spaces, according to a research analysis (pdf). To put that figure into perspective, it’s the equivalent of 16 movies.

How do our brains handle these massive loads? They take little shortcuts here and there to make life a bit easier. Brains are designed and wired to prioritize efficiency wherever possible, so they rely on tools like heuristics — essentially a mental shortcut that helps us make decisions faster. When we make rational decisions, we typically spend lots of time (and cognitive energy) weighing all the available information, including the pros and cons of each scenario, to reach a logical conclusion.

Heuristics allow our brains to get to the end point faster when it comes to snap decisions and thought processes. “For example, humans have only limited time, information, and cognitive capacity to decide which mate to choose, food to eat, or house to buy, and so may have to rely on simple decision strategies or heuristics to make their decisions,” according to an article published in the Encyclopedia of Human Behavior.

The danger of heuristics: They can result in some cognitive biases, which are essentially incorrect judgments or assumptions. These biases become systematic errors that can perpetuate the same type of thinking if they remain unchecked, resulting in sometimes hyperbolic behavior. Scientists who studied the neural pathways our brains use when employing heuristics — and that result in cognitive biases — have found that there are several different types of biases:

#1- Scrolling through articles that all seem to be giving the same news or confirming the same opinions? That’s actually social media algorithms perpetuating confirmation bias by feeding us content that is in line with our interests and views, in a bid to get more engagement and clicks. This bias, known as the confirmation bias, is “the tendency to select, interpret, focus on, and remember information in a way that confirms one’s preconceptions, views, and expectations,” according to a 1998 study. So that means that, besides the algorithm already doing a lot of work to bring us data that feeds into our preconceptions, we’re also likely to seek out information in a way that confirms our thoughts and opinions. That often means the lack of exposure to opposing viewpoints will further entrench our biases and ideas.

#2- “I’ve already spent too much time/money/effort. I can’t quit now.” This common way of thinking is a cognitive bias known as the sunk cost bias, which refers to our tendency to stick with a something — be it an activity, a relationship, a job, or just a bad movie — because we’ve already invested time, money, or effort into it and don’t want to see these resources go to waste midway through. This bias “means that we are making decisions that are irrational and lead to suboptimal outcomes,” focusing too much on what we’ve already invested (proverbial spilled milk) instead of considering the future and end point. It ends up being a “vicious cycle” because, until we pull the plug, we’re likely to continue investing the resources we feel bad about wasting, making it exponentially more difficult to call it quits.

#3- “That could never happen to me.” One of the common cognitive biases — which is particularly prevalent among younger people — is the optimism bias. This fallacy is seen when we (incorrectly) assume that we’re less susceptible to negative events and more likely to experience positive events than the general average. It’s often seen in risk-taking behavior in younger people, who could drive recklessly but be irrationally confident that they won’t get into an accident, or take up smoking with the conviction they won’t face adverse health effects.

So how do we address these biases? As the old adage goes, admitting you have a problem is the first step to recovery. Studies have shown that awareness of cognitive biases decreases their effects. To go further, integrate others into your decision-making process since research has also shown that collaboration, particularly in diverse groups, mitigates bias. Finally, try to identify all the factors going into your decision-making process before giving the final ok.