EnterprisePM — Egypt’s economic reform program 2.0 is here

Good afternoon, nice people. We’re almost at the end of this abridged workweek, with just one day left to go before we slide into a well-earned long weekend.

HAPPENING NOW- The second phase of Egypt’s economic reform program is now being made public as cabinet members hold a press conference to announce plans for nationwide “structural reform.” Structural reforms are the second phase of the IMF-supported economic reform program that began in 2016. We’ll have the full story in tomorrow morning’s edition of EnterpriseAM.

** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

• The Sinovac vaccine is now cleared for emergency use in Egypt.
• Inclusion in the JPMorgan bond index may not be quite as lucrative as first thought.
• There may be a potential compromise to end the Ever Given dispute in the works.

THE BIG STORY INTERNATIONALLY is that banks’ losses from the Archegos Capital Management debacle have now surpassed the USD 10 bn mark, after Nomura Holdings and UBS Group reported bigger hits than previously expected. Nomura reported losses nearing USD 2.9 bn (and suspended its head of prime brokerage), while UBS said it lost USD 861 mn from the implosion. The story is on the front pages of the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal this afternoon.

The majority of Americans are happy with US President Joe Biden’s first 100 days in office, with 55% of respondents in a Reuters / Ipsos poll saying they approve of the president’s performance so far. Biden fared best in his handling of the pandemic and the economy while in the White House, although the newswire notes that “circumstances beyond his control” played in his favor — including him inheriting the country as covid-19 vaccines were already rolling out, and his economy being compared to the meltdown seen in 2020. The president scored lowest on his immigration policies, earning a 49% disapproval rating.

Vaccinated Americans will finally be allowed into the EU again this summer — granted they have not taken a Chinese or Russian jab. US citizens who have taken one of the EU-approved vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca, and Johnson & Johnson) will be able to travel freely in the 27 member states, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen told the New York Times. Although von der Leyen did not single them out, China’s Sinovac and Sinopharm as well as Russia’s Sputnik V are currently not included in Europe’s vaccine passport system, meaning Americans who received any of these jabs are unlikely to be allowed into the bloc this summer.

What does that mean for Egypt when the EU expands its travel policies? It is unclear whether the same policy will be applied to other countries as well, and whether this policy could be amended. Aside from AstraZeneca, the Sinopharm vaccine is one of the main jabs being administered in Egypt’s vaccine rollout, with Sinovac — which we plan to manufacture domestically — also being approved for use in the country yesterday. The Health Ministry is also looking to get its hands on doses of Sputnik V. Minapharm is set to manufacture the vaccine locally, but it’s unclear whether any of the output will be earmarked for Egypt.

Saudi forces intercepted a remote-controlled boat full of explosives off Yanbu this morning, the kingdom’s defense ministry said. The announcement came after as-of-yet unconfirmed reports of an attack on a vessel near the Red Sea port city. Security firm Dryad Global said the vessel could have been oil tanker NCC Dammam, which is owned by Saudi’s national shipping carrier Bahri, but Bahri CEO Abdullah Aldubaikhi says none of the firm’s ships were hit. Ministry officials are still investigating the incident.

** So, when do we eat? We get to sit down for iftar at 6:29pm this evening, and will have until 3:42am to wrap up our sohour.

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FOR TOMORROW-

The Central Bank of Egypt will meet tomorrow to review interest rates. The consensus among 14 analysts and economists we polled is that the Monetary Policy Committee will leave rates on hold again — and probably won’t enact any cuts until the back half of the year.

???? CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Next Sunday is Coptic Easter Sunday and Sham El Nessim will fall on Monday. It’s still unclear whether either will be a banking holiday, so watch this space for updates.

Eid is expected to fall on 13-15 May, but the dates are still to be confirmed.

The Gouna International Squash Open 2021, a PSA event, will run 20-28 May with 96 men and women competing. The event has the backing of our friends at CIB.

???? FOR YOUR COMMUTE-

iSheep are getting a lot more control over the privacy of their data with the new iOS 14.5 update, which will let users opt out of apps collecting your data. Apple’s new feature is fueling the flames of the iPhone maker’s rift with ad revenue-reliant Facebook over the implications to the industry, the BBC reports. This rollout is hardly a new direction for Apple, which blocks third-party cookies by default in Safari, and last year forced app providers in iOS to spell out in their App Store listing what data they collect. The App Tracking Transparency feature will be on by default, meaning app developers will have to explicitly ask you for permission to use the IDFA identifier on your phone to collect your data.

Facebook thinks the world is ending, suggesting that 80% of people will opt out of sharing data and warning in December 2020 that the update could cut cashflow through its ad network by half. This change would likely hit small businesses the hardest, the Big Tech company claimed. Nonetheless, Facebook appears to have accepted the update in its blog post last week, where it promised “new experiences and measurement protocols,” and admitting that the ways digital advertisers collect and use information needed to evolve and rely on less data.

Apple’s iOS 14.5 update is available now: While on wifi, access it through your Settings, then tap General, followed by Software Update. The NYT has a solid review of the App Tracking Transparency feature.

Apple, meanwhile, still has antitrust issues: The company could face charges from the EU’s competition chief Margrethe Vestager later this week over concerns that its App Store rules for developers break EU law, sources familiar with the matter told the Financial Times. The probe was launched in June last year following an antitrust complaint by Spotify that Apple squeezes the music streaming service by changing the rules and charging large commissions on the App Store.

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Investors are protecting their portfolios against rising inflation in the US as they’re growing more concerned that price growth will overshoot in the coming years, even after bond yields fell in recent weeks, says the Financial Times. An uptick in the demand for inflation-protected treasuries is signaling that the urge to shore up defenses is high, especially as uncertainty still looms over markets. While the Fed targets inflation of around 2%, a measure recently calculated by the Minneapolis Federal Reserve shows a one-in-three chance that consumer price growth could rise above 3% in the next five years.

BTC bounces back from last week’s slump: The price of BTC surged as much as 10% yesterday as the crypto market recovered from a sell-off last week partly caused by the Biden administration’s plans to up capital gains tax, CNBC reports. The currency hit a high of USD 54,338 a coin during trading yesterday after plummeting below USD 50k for the first time since March on Friday.

GLOBAL IPO WATCH- Nassef Sawiris-backed chemical producer OCI and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) have hired four international banks to advise on the potential USD 1 bn IPO of their fertilizer JV in Abu Dhabi, Bloomberg reports. Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, HSBC and First Abu Dhabi Bank will advise on the Fertiglobe’s listing, which would be one of the UAE’s largest offerings in years and could value the company at USD 7 bn. The Abu Dhabi-based company is the region’s largest fertilizer producer and was formed in 2019 via a merger of OCI and Adnoc’s fertilizer businesses. OCI owns 58% of the JV and Adnoc the remaining 42%.

???? ON THE TUBE TONIGHT-

David Attenborough is out with new nature documentaries on Netflix and Apple TV. The 94-year-old presenter, who has become an ubiquitous presence in nature docs, explored how animals perceive color in Netflix’s Life in Colour. Animals use color to mate, raise their young, hide from predators, and even maintain territory. As if the information itself weren’t interesting enough, Attenborough’s narrative style and the note of awe in his tone makes viewers join in on the sensation of wonder, writes The Hindu. New cameras and imaging technologies were created especially for the series to help humans see beyond their visible spectrum and experience a world from a different perspective.

Meanwhile, Apple TV+’s The Year Earth Changed debut on 16 April did so well that it topped charts for unscripted programs in countries all over the world — surpassing programs such as The Oprah Conversation. The Attenborough-narrated documentary looks at how the pandemic and lockdowns gave the world a much-needed break, filming on five different continents and portraying the effects on animals, plants, and air quality, according to Apple Insider. The documentary poses the important question of whether we will undo all the positive impacts on the environment after lockdowns are lifted.

⚽ Al Ahly is going up against Al Masry tonight at 9:30pm in the Egyptian Premier League.

The Champions League is coming back strong tonight, with Real Madrid playing against Chelsea at 9pm.

???? EAT THIS TONIGHT-

Batates and Zalabya are trying to up their game with new creations that would shock old-school customers Teta and Gedo. Their famous zalabya now comes in flavors including cotton candy, caramel, lotus, hazelnut chocolate, and dark chocolate. The shop’s presentation has also changed from the classic rectangular boat-like paper dishes to large boxes with plastic compartments for each zalabya. For Ramadan, Batates and Zalabya have introduced a kunafa topped with zalabya that you can customize from all their available flavors. If you decide to head out and try the new innovations, we can personally recommend the corn dog pops that we’ve enjoyed since childhood.

???? OUT AND ABOUT-

The French Institute in Cairo is hosting another literary event today, throwing it back to an initiative by Mada Masr and the French Institute that prompted writers to send in a piece of work with the prompt “the day when…” jotting down an imaginary day when the world or their life would be transformed. The contributing writers and the winner of the competition will present their stories at 9pm in the Downtown Cairo branch.

Multiple daily events are going on at Sheikh Zayed’s Galleria 40 during Ramadan. Today’s schedule features a Raya and Sakina skit, an Abd El Halim Hafez cover, and a Wael El Fashny performance.

Singer Ali El Haggar is performing at Zamalek Theater tomorrow at 9:30pm as part of their Ramadan Nights events.

???? UNDER THE LAMPLIGHT-

Film buffs, you’ll enjoy this one: Billy Wilder is famously known as the director of major black and white movies including Sunset Boulevard and Some Like It Hot, but before he made a name for himself in the film biz, Wilder was a journalist reporting out of Vienna and Berlin during and between the world wars. Billy Wilder on Assignment: Dispatches from Weimar Berlin and Interwar Vienna contains Wilder’s early writings including cultural essays, interviews, and reviews, all written with the same wit and intelligence as his later Hollywood screenplays. The collection of writings takes on many roles: A look inside the head of a man who would later become an auteur, a look at the historic entertainment industry, and a feel for what the countries felt like in the early to mid-1900s.

???? TOMORROW’S WEATHER- Tomorrow might be the last day of this great weather. The mercury will rise to 34°C during the day and 18°C at night before gradually inching up to the 40s, according to our favorite weather app.

Raya Holding will wrap up the sale of 100% of recycling subsidiary BariQ to Mamdouh Abbas’ Intro Group this week, the local press reports, quoting sources close to the transaction. The sale could value BariQ at close to EGP 500 mn. It will see BariQ’s shares snapped up by a subsidiary of Intro Group, and be added to Abbas’ existing portfolio of recycling businesses, which spans both Egypt and international markets. Raya’s board approved the sale last November. The company had received offers from at least six local and foreign investors.

Advisors: Economic Group Financial Consulting Company was an independent financial advisor on the transaction, while law firm Zaki Hashem & Partners provided counsel. Pharos’ brokerage arm, meanwhile, was sell-side advisor and Compass Capital did the work on the buy-side.

OTHER M&A NEWS- Al Ahly Capital has finalized its EGP 72 mn acquisition of a 75% stake in e-payments player Momken, Al Mal reports, quoting sources in the know. This saw Al Ahly directly purchase shares in an OTC transaction that was executed in recent days. The acquisition also involves a planned capital increase by Al Ahly, which could raise Al Ahly’s stake to over 75% when complete. Proceeds will be used to increase Momken’s points of sale (PoS) across the country to 150k from 100k within a year and a half as well as offer new services in a bid to boost market share. The acquisition brought Momken under Tamkeen, a platform for a host of non-banking financial services companies that will operate as subsidiaries of a new holding company, Al Ahly Capital Holding Financial Services. We had more about the state-owned bank’s push into non-banking financial services last month.

Pharos’ brokerage arm executed the transaction on the OTC market.

Advisors: On the buy-side, ALC Alieldean Weshahi & Partners acted as counsel for Al Ahly and PwC was financial advisor. Zilla Capital and Zaki Hashem & Partners, meanwhile, were the sell-side financial and counsel to Momken.

Kuwaiti coffee delivery app Cofe is planning to expand into Egypt and Turkey after raising USD 10 mn in a series B funding round, according to Zawya. Cofe landed the investment from Kuwaiti Sharia'a compliant investment house Al Imtiaz Investment Group. The timeline for the expansion into the Egyptian market was not specified. The business plans to use the funding to hire and build specialized teams as well as launch new products for its partner vendors and baristas. The Cofe app offers coffee shop delivery services while also including a marketplace for various coffee merchandise including beans and machines.

OUR ANALYST OF THE WEEK- Mahmoud Gad, senior real estate equity research analyst at Arab African International Securities (Linkedin).

My name is Mahmoud Gad and I cover real estate in Egypt at Arab African International Securities (AAIS). At the beginning of my career I had been working in accounting and corporate finance. While I learned a lot, I grew to dislike the routine and the lack of creativity. When I was offered a buy-side job at Alpha Capital, I jumped at the chance and was encouraged by my mentor Amr Elalfy. I then moved to sell-side and joined MubasherTrade, which I think was an important step for me to gain a better understanding of the market and the economy. After a stint outside of research, I returned to the field and landed my current job, which I’m hoping will be the launching point for the rest of my career.

The best part of the job is that I can be creative and think outside of the box. In our area of work, it’s very important that analysts do things differently and really bring out their own perspectives and voices. I enjoy interacting with many companies and people and getting that exposure. I also have a great manager at AAIS, Ibrahim Mansour, who always encourages and pushes me.

The worst part of my job is that you don’t take the decisions so your recommendations aren’t always applied. In the past period, it’s also been tough with the volatility in the market, which often puts a big gap between the fair value price and the market price of listed companies.

My theory of investment is to combine strong fundamentals with good timing. Look for a company with strong financials when its share price is low but has the potential to go up long-term.

The most important factor to look at in real estate is market position and brand name. There are a lot of companies that have a huge landbank, but no name in the market, which affects the volume of sales. Meanwhile, reputable names often lead in terms of sales.

I always like to come up with scenario and sensitivity analyses when looking at companies, meaning that I jot down a number of factors and study the possibility of them happening and how big of an impact they would have on the stock. It gives me a better understanding of what factors are important to see the stock rerate and what would have a negligible impact on the target price. Investors like having this information related to them so that they have a kind of guidebook that helps them follow up on news and make decisions.

I think 2021 will be a good year for Egypt — mainly due to the interest rate cuts we’ve seen in the past period. The lower rates signal positive investment potential in the country. Egypt’s economy still being forecasted to grow could also drive foreign investors back into the market and I’m hoping we see more direct foreign investment in the local market which will help us get our FX up. The tourism sector picking up post-covid is also something I think will greatly benefit the economy.

The rate cuts are also a good indicator for the real estate sector. In Egypt, real estate has been largely accepted as an alternative to saving in banks, and more people will embrace that as interest rates in banks become less attractive. The rate cuts also mean that the cost of finance for real estate companies will go down as loans become more affordable which could also lead to unit prices going down as the burden the consumers carry goes down.

A recent AAIS report predicted that the sector will begin to recover in 2H2021 as the covid-19 pandemic subsides and allows for the positive catalysts to show on-ground impact. We also estimate that the sector will grow 5.2% over the next four years to reach EGP 68.7 bn by 2025.

If I had to cover another industry, I would go for the consumer sector, which I have covered before. During that time I tried to think as both a consumer and analyst when coming up with my research and I liked that I could see the impact and on ground reality for the sector. I would often come home with products from companies that I was covering and ask my family to try them and see what they thought. I once took my wife to a rug store and she got very excited about getting a new item for the house. She wasn’t as happy when I told her I was just doing some research [laughs].

My favorite writers are Omar Taher and Belal Fadl. I’m always blown away by the way they express and I find it so engaging, satirical, and inspiring. I’m very passionate about writing — I like to write about daily encounters or situations that I felt can be portrayed in an amusing way but still offer a lesson or moral at the end. I often try to emulate the two authors in my own writings. The most recent thing I read though was Eza’et El Aghany by Omar Taher.

In my down time I like to stay home, mostly [laughs]. I try to stay active, however, and the gym is my second home. I also practice swimming two or three times a week and it relaxes me physically and mentally. I always tell people that they can leave me in the water and I’ll be content.

Something that I think is very important for the country is to foster more financial literacy in the younger generation. We need to teach them how to save and invest, even if it’s saving their allowance and deciding to invest in a toy. I saw how impactful it is for children to learn these skills early on when my daughter had a bake sale at school and learned how to value and earn for her work. I believe that some of the things we should ingrain into this next generation is how to be inquisitive, knowledgeable, good communicators, principled, open-minded, caring, and open to taking risks.

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Orascom Construction is paying out USD 27 mn in dividends to its shareholders in 2021, at USD 0.231 per share, the company said in an EGX disclosure (pdf).

The EGX30 rose 0.6% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 976 mn (23.9% below the 90-day average). Local investors were net sellers. The index is down 2.3% YTD.

In the green: Export Development Bank (+4.0%), Credit Agricole (+3.6%) and Qalaa Holdings (+3.4%).

In the red: GB Auto (-2.6%), Telecom Egypt (-1.5%) and Oriental Weavers (-1.4%).

Is there science behind dopamine fasting? The latest in bizarre Silicon Valley trends sees extreme practitioners abstain from activities that entail physical pleasure including food, exercise, social media, videogames and even talking in an attempt to reset the brain’s reward system, Live Science reports. The concept first picked up steam after an NYT article titled “How to feel nothing now, in order to feel more later,” was published.

What does it do? Advocates of the practise report feeling more focused and finding more joy in the activities they have previously avoided, the reasoning being that they have deprived their brain of the quick dopamine hits that say checking social media or taking a sip of coffee stimulates. Clinical psychiatry professor at UC San Francisco Cameron Sepah, who helped popularize the technique through a published guide explained to Vox that, “taking a break from behaviors that trigger strong amounts of dopamine release (especially in a repeated fashion) allows our brain to recover and restore itself.”

But dopamine is more than just our brain’s “pleasure chemical”: Dopamine is a neurotransmitter that serves many functions in the brain, and is incorrectly thought to be a “feel-good” chemical. In reality it does not work by triggering feelings of pleasure and happiness in the brain’s reward center, Emory University neuroscientist Michael Treadway explains, but acts as a sort of “switchboard” that helps us regulate our energy and motivate us to achieve tasks. One of the many brain networks that rely on dopamine to communicate is the mesolimbic reward pathway, which sends dopamine out to other brain regions that shape memory, expectations, emotions and reactions about rewards.

So, what’s the idea behind dopamine fasts? The technique echoes an addiction treatment therapy called “stimulus control” where problematic triggers are removed from an addict’s vicinity in an attempt to wean their brain’s reward system off of the thing they are addicted to, said Sepah. This technique is also used in cognitive behavioural therapy as a way to rewire the brain away from unhelpful impulses. Dopamine fasts are also modern manifestations of centuries-old meditation techniques and monastic lifestyles, which have long held that periods of enforced restraint and asceticism are beneficial for our overall sense of wellbeing.

Can you actually fast from dopamine like you do from food? Technically No: You can’t fully stop your body from producing dopamine through lifestyle changes, says Treadway, and if you could, it would be fatal.

It’s actually a stimulation fast: The idea of connecting arousal and pleasure to the brain chemical dopamine is wrong, says Poldrack. "You can totally block the dopamine system and it doesn't change a human or an animal's ability to feel pleasure," Poldrack said. "What it changes is the degree to which they want things out in the world, and the degree to which they will actually go do something to get those things."

Why does it have a reputation as ridiculous? Though dopamine fasting does have a legitimate scientific basis, Silicon Valley has taken the practice to an extreme in a bid to boost productivity, with some of its practitioners going to extremes such as not using electricity, or refusing to leave the house or make eye contact. But from a community of people who have promoted fads as outlandish as microdosing recreational substances at work to boost creativity and drinking unfiltered river water to boost immunity, this trend seems relatively benign, and might even be useful.

Either way, zoning out from modern life’s stimuli probably isn’t a bad idea: “It certainly sounds plausible that taking a break from obsessively checking your social media account and partying every night is good for you. [It’s] just unlikely to have much to do with dopamine per se,” University of California professor of neurology Joshua Berke told the BBC.

26-28 April (Monday-Wednesday): Non Edadiya / Thanaweya Amma students sit end-of-year exams.

27 April (Tuesday): Finance Minister Mohamed Maait will address AmCham’s Pre-Annual General Meeting to discuss Egypt’s economic reform beyond the pandemic.

28 April (Wednesday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

29 April (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Sinai Liberation Day.

29 April (Thursday): Start of school summer holiday for students not sitting Edadiya / Thanaweya Amma exams.

1 May (Saturday): Labor Day (national holiday).

2 May (Sunday): Coptic Easter Sunday (holiday for Coptic Christians, still unclear whether it will be a banking holiday).

3 May (Monday): Sham El Nessim (date of the national holiday still TBC).

13-15 May (Thursday-Saturday): Eid El Fitr (TBC).

16-19 May (Sunday-Wednesday): The Arabian Travel Market (ATM) takes place in Dubai.

25-28 May (Tuesday-Friday): The World Economic Forum annual meeting, Singapore.

1 June (Tuesday): The IMF will conduct a second review of targets set under the USD 5.2 bn standby loan approved in June 2020 (proposed date).

7-9 June (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt Petroleum Show, Egypt International Exhibition Center, New Cairo, Egypt.

17 June (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

17-20 June (Thursday-Sunday) : The International Exhibition of Materials and Technologies for Finishing and Construction (Turnkey Expo), Cairo International Conference Center.

24 June (Thursday): End of the 2020-2021 academic year (public schools).

26-29 June (Saturday-Tuesday): The Big 5 Construct Egypt, Cairo International Convention Center, Cairo, Egypt.

30 June (Wednesday): 30 June Revolution Day.

30 June- 15 July: National Book Fair.

July + August: Thanaweya Amma exams take place.

1 July: (Thursday): National holiday in observance of 30 June Revolution.

1 July (Thursday): Large taxpayers that have not yet signed on on to the e-invoicing platform will suffer a host of penalties, including removal from large taxpayer classification, losing access to government services and business, and losing subsidies.

19 July (Monday): Arafat Day (national holiday).

20-23 July (Tuesday-Friday): Eid Al Adha (national holiday)

23 July (Friday): Revolution Day (national holiday).

5 August (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

9 August (Monday): Islamic New Year.

12 August (Thursday): National holiday in observance of the Islamic New Year.

12-15 September (Sunday-Wednesday): Sahara Expo: the 33rd International Agricultural Exhibition for Africa and the Middle East.

16 September (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

30 September-2 October (Thursday-Saturday): Egypt Projects 2021 expo, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo, Egypt.

30 September-8 October (Thursday-Friday): The 54th session of the Cairo International Fair, Cairo International Conference Center, Cairo, Egypt.

1 October (Friday): Expo 2020 Dubai opens.

6 October (Wednesday): Armed Forces Day.

7 October (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Armed Forces Day.

12-14 October (Tuesday-Thursday) Mediterranean Offshore Conference, Alexandria, Egypt

18 October (Monday): Prophet’s Birthday.

21 October (Thursday): National holiday in observance of the Prophet’s Birthday.

28 October (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

1-3 November (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt Energy exhibition on power and renewable energy, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo, Egypt

1-12 November (Monday-Friday): 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), Glasgow, United Kingdom.

29 November-2 December (Monday-Thursday): Egypt Defense Expo

13-17 December: United Nations Convention against Corruption, Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt.

16 December (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

May 2022: Investment in Logistics Conference, Cairo, Egypt.

27 June-3 July 2022 (Monday-Sunday): World University Squash Championships, New Giza.

Note to readers: Some national holidays may appear twice above. Since 2020, Egypt has observed most mid-week holidays on Thursdays regardless of the day on which they fall and may also move those days to Sundays. We distinguish below between the actual holiday and its observance.