Egypt, UAE, KSA, Bahrain all cut off diplomatic ties with Qatar, block entry of Qatari nationals

In proof that organizational skills are not beyond us when we don’t want them to be, Egypt, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain simultaneously broke off diplomatic ties with Qatar this morning, according to official statements from all four countries released just about an hour before dispatch time. All four have recalled their diplomats and said they’re ordering their citizens home.

The four countries said they have suspended all travel to Qatar; the UAE, Saudi and Bahrain have Qatari diplomats 48 hours to leave. Egypt’s Foreign Ministry and the government of Saudi Arabia cited Qatar’s continued support for terrorist organizations including the Ikhwan and meddling in their internal affairs as their reason for breaking off ties. Bahrain’s Foreign Ministry accused the pariah statelet of violating international laws. The UAE’s official WAM news agency carried a statement outlining similar reasons, adding that the UAE was banning the entry of Qatari nationals.

The breakoff of relations comes after more than a week of escalating diplomatic tensions prompted by a story carried by Qatar’s state news agency that quoted Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani criticizing US President Donald Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia and attacking renewed pressure on Iran by Saudi and the US. The agency later pulled the story, claiming it was hacked. Egypt, Saudi and UAE responded by blocking Qatari websites as well as other outlets accused of harboring sympathies for the Ikhwan.

It’s called karma, ladies and gentlemen.

The Egyptian Private Equity Association will be hosting Investment Minister Sahar Nasr for its annual sohour tomorrow at 10pm at the Four Seasons Nile Plaza Hotel in Garden City. RSVP details here, if you would like to attend.

After a spell of Ramadan-itis, Egypt’s media power couple were back on the airwaves last night, and both were concerned with Saturday night’s terrorist attacks in London. Lamees Al Hadidy, the better half of the two, also recapped reactions from the banking sector on the government’s new mobile payments strategy.

Kol Youm’s Amr Adib suggested that the London attacks will help sway the international community on officially designating the Ikhwan a terror group (watch, runtime 2:06) and attempted (rather unsuccessfully) to analyze British Prime Minister Theresa May’s speech after the incident. He criticized the UK for failing to take tougher measures against terrorism sooner (watch, runtime 6:04).

Lamees also stressed the need for the UK to take serious action against terror groups and their financiers and sympathizers, accusing the country of acting as a “safe haven” for the Ikhwan on her biweekly Ramadan spot on CBE Extra News.

She then spoke with CIB Chairman Hisham Ezz Al Arab about the National Payments Council’s decisions from Saturday. Ezz Al Arab, who is also head of the Federation of Egyptian Banks, says he expects mobile payment solutions to be widely adopted. Ezz Al Arab said that he expects forthcoming legislation on mobile payments will see the replacement of archaic banking rules from 1960s that are still in place today and that mandate keeping paper records.

The National Bank of Egypt’s head of retail banking Hazem Hegazy also told Lamees that the draft law will include clauses to regulate electronic payments and utility bill payments (watch both call-ins, runtime: 14:33).

Lamees also spoke to MP Salah Hasaballah about the handover of Tiran and Sanafir islands to Saudi Arabia. Hasaballah told the host that many MPs are against the agreement and will ask House Speaker Ali Abdel Aal to live broadcast the plenary session vote so that people would know who’s for and who’s against.

Reserves close-in on pre-2011 levels: The central bank’s foreign reserves increased to USD 31.13 bn at the end of May, from USD 28.64 bn a month earlier, according to the CBE. The central bank had received the USD 3.2 bn raised from the successful eurobond sale before the end of May, and an unnamed official said they would be used to bolster reserves. This is a major milestone, since, as Bloomberg’s Ahmed Feteha notes, the level of reserves is the highest since February 2011 and just USD 5 bn shy of the USD 36 bn peak recorded in December 2010.

ENTERPRISE EXCLUSIVE- The French Court of Cassation has issued a verdict reversing a decision that had required state-owned Egyptian General Petroleum Company (EGPC) to pay National Gas Company (NATGAS) EGP 250 mn in damages as part of a 2009 case. Deputy Justice Minister for Arbitration and International Disputes Moustafa El Bahabety led the team that defended EGPC, which successfully filed case number 16-13.729 to the French Court of Cassation. The case had been moved to France from Egypt after NATGAS filed an appeal to the Versailles Court of Appeals, which ruled in its favour and imposed a freeze on EGPC’s assets in France. This most recent reversal by the French Court of Cassation, won by El Bahabety’s team, means EGPC is no longer required to pay EGP 250 mn to NATGAS. The French Court of Cassation referred the case back to the lower Paris Court of Appeals, and ordered NATGAS to pay EUR 3k in legal fees.

Latest from the World Bank sees Egypt growing at fastest pace in region next year, but warns on emerging market growth. The World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report sees GDP growth in Egypt clocking in at the fastest pace of any country it covers in MENA next year and the year after. The report sees growth at 4.3% this year accelerating to 5.0% in 2018 and 5.3% in 2019. That’s more than twice the pace it expects of the GCC countries, which it sees growing 1.8% this year and just 2.8% in 2019. Egypt is also set to easily outpace the MENA average of 2.2% this year and 3.2% in 2019.

Check out the landing page for the report(the Egypt forecast is buried there under the box for “Middle East and North Africa) or download the full report (pdf, about 9 MB), where Egypt gets mention in the MENA section starting on page 91.

It’s not all sunshine and puppies: The World Bank is warning that “a slowdown in investment into developing economies has put the brakes on productivity growth in emerging economies, the bank warned. That echoes a trend in the US and other advanced economies where economists have been flummoxed by the issue of stalling productivity growth,” the Financial Times notes. (See graphs below.) The bank’s top economist tells the salmon-colored paper that under-investment in infrastructure — particularly in Africa — is a top concern.

The bank is also warning on EM debt dynamics, where it says that as of the end of 2016, “government debt exceeded its 2007 level by more than 10 percentage points of GDP in more than half” of emerging and developing markets, while the fiscal balance worsened from its 2007 level by more than 5 ppt in a third of EMs surveyed. (Read the debt dynamics piece in pdf)

The Oil Ministry has put forward a plan to cut fuel imports to 10% of consumption by 2019, according to an Al Borsa report cited by Reuters. Minister Tarek El Molla says plans are in place to ramp up production to reduce imports, which account for 30% of total consumption currently. Reuters notes that Egypt is already engaged in talks with LNG suppliers to defer shipments of fuel already contracted for delivery in 2018, as surging domestic gas production pushes back demand for imports. The reduction in imports will cut the amount of money spent on buying both unrefined and refined fuel products, El Molla says, as Egypt consumes 6.8 mn tonnes of fuel products in total per month.

Banks, businesses welcome the National Payments Council’s mobile payments strategy: Five resolutions passed by the National Payments Council at its inaugural meeting on Saturday are a step in the right direction and will help Egypt achieve its goals of financial inclusion and incorporating informal businesses into the formal economy, CIB Chairman and head of the Federation of Egyptian Banks Hisham Ezz Al Arab tells AMAY. The decisions, which will help set up a framework for mobile payments in the country and curb cash transactions with the government, were also cheered by Housing and Development Bank Head Fathy El Sebai, who said that a mobile payments strategy will help transition Egypt to a cashless society and develop the infrastructure for the financial and banking systems, which will facilitate doing business here.

Quality and service issues drive household subscribers away from TE Data, into the arms of mobile data providers: TE Data has lost about 3,000 subscribers in 1Q2017 “for the first time ever,” Al Borsa reports. The near-monopoly still retains a market share of 75.3% as of the end of March, down from 76% at the end of last year. The Telecom Egypt subsidiary lost 5,000 household subscribers, but gained 2,000 new corporate clients. The gains were made by DSL services provided by MNOs Orange Egypt (formerly Linkdotnet), Vodafone, and Etisalat Misr. In total, the market for ADSL services grew by 0.9% q-o-q in 1Q2017.

Italian tourist arrivals double in 1Q2017: The number of Italian tourists visiting Egypt increased by 100% y-o-y in 1Q2017 to 130,000, head of the Tourism Promotion Authority office in Italy Emad Fathy said, according to Al Shorouk. He expects the number of incoming tourists to reach at least 250,000 by year-end. The authority has launched a campaign targeting the Italian market that will run through 18 June on Italian television channels and until 5 July on social media.

The Egyptian Trade Union Federation is the latest to line up for its chance to milk the private sector, state coffers. ETUF has prepared model legislation that it says will improve pension benefits for private-sector workers, particularly for casual workers who aren’t covered under the current pensions act, including construction workers and truck drivers The federation is presenting its work as a “draft bill” that will soon go to the House of Representatives. While it has no power to table a bill for consideration, its secretary general is Gebaly El Maraghi, who is also the chairman of the House Manpower Committee. ETUF is presenting the bill as a bid to replace the current 1975 law with one that’s “more in line with the past four decades of social and economic changes” and guarantee medical insurance, severance and end-of-service bonuses for workers, MP Mohamed Wahb Allah tells the newspaper. The bill would also mandate annual increases in pension payouts. El Maraghi plans to introduce his bill for consideration by his committee “after the Eid break in early July,” Al Mal says, adding credence to suggestions the house will delay its summer recess to tackle a backlog of legislation.

Safwan Thabet, Moustafa Sakr, Aboutrika named in terror watchlist: Juhayna Chairman Safwan Thabet, retired football hero Mohamed Aboutrika, and Moustafa Sakr (chairman of Business News, which publishes Al Borsa and Daily News Egypt) were among 1,537 people named in a terrorist watchlist compiled by state security and ratified by a Cairo Criminal Court. The list was published in the Official Gazette yesterday and picked up by the local press. The 22-page list also includes former president Mohamed Morsi, Ikhwan supreme guide Mohamed Badie, and Islamist businessthug Hassan Malek.

El Deeb to defend Aboutrika? Prominent criminal defense attorney Farid El Deeb said in an interview with Al Masry Al Youm last Friday that he would defend Aboutrika. He also dished out details on the Mubaraks, telling the newspaper that Gamal Mubarak has no intention to run for office. He added that Hosni Mubarak does not regret anything he has done in the past. Al Arabiya has the excepts on the Mubarak part of the interview in English.

Prime Minister Sherif Ismail ordered governors on Sunday to form committees to process appeals by those looking to get back land seized under the state’s land reclamation campaign, AMAY reports. Authorities have been clearing unlicensed developments and reclaiming illegally occupied land over the past month and the government is expected to present a detailed report to President Abdel Fattah El Sisi this week. We noted last week that an agriculture ministry report puts the built up area of buildings torn down by the state since the campaign started at 18.39 mn sqm and the area of reclaimed state-owned land at 394.5k feddans.

Government to revisit East Port Said port fees? The government appears to be leaning towards hiring a neutral consultant to look into the impact of a hike in port fees in East Port Said that prompted five major shipping lines to suspend operations there in protest back in March, Al Mal reports. K-Line, one of the five companies, had set scrapping the hike as a condition for its return and said that its executives were in talks with Egyptian officials and would be meeting with Transport Minister Hisham Arafat in London to resume discussions.

A handful of international stories worth a look on a slow news morning:

Incumbent UK Prime Minister Theresa May is running neck and neck with Labour’sJeremy Corbyn ahead of Thursday’s snap parliamentary election, which May had called to win a stronger mandate as she begins negotiating Britain’s exit from the European Union. One pollster is even suggesting a hung parliament is a possibility.

News of a tightening UK race comes as the Daeshbags have claimed responsibility for theSaturday night terror attack in London that left seven dead. Read more on Reuters, in the Guardian or the Wall Street Journal.

Dana Gas has appointed advisors to help it restructure about USD 700 mn in Islamic debtdue in October. Houlihan Lokey will be financial adviser and Squire Patton Boggs will provide legal counsel, Bloomberg reports, adding that the UAE-based driller is owed about USD 1 bn by Egypt.

NMC Healthcare is eyeing opportunities in Saudi Arabia. The biggest private sector health-care company in the UAE is looking to buy hospitals and other medical facilities in KSA amid early indications the kingdom will privatize services there. “I’m interested,” BR Shetty, the USD 6 bn company’s Indian-born founder, tells Bloomberg. “Whenever there is a chance, I’ll go. We have surplus funding, no problem.” Shetty was said last September to be interest in bidding for a piece of the planned USD 1.6 bn Alexandria Medical City here in Egypt, where he faces competition from the Batterjee family’s Saudi German Hospitals Group.

KSA warned against NYSE as IPO venue: “Saudi Arabia is nearing a long-awaited decision on the main international stock exchange for the initial public offering of its state energy company, with lawyers advising the kingdom that a New York listing poses the greatest litigation risk of any jurisdiction.” (Financial Times)

Our friends at Tarek Nour Group have launched a national awareness campaign called “The Citizen’s Right to Know” to ask hard questions and tackle issues surrounding national unity. The campaign is not the usual Ramadan marketing fluff: It goes deep by asking the difficult question of what we, as Egyptians, want to see when we look in the mirror and how do we view ourselves as a nation? It features celebrities including Isaad Younis, Essam El Hadary, and Ibrahim Eissa, whose presence is both surprising and telling in the context of state-sponsored communication. The campaign is a nationwide call to seek knowledge and to examine and analyze the daily flow of information that washes over us all. Eissa’s piece speaks for the general public in explaining that when we know the real facts of any situation — good or bad — our collective sense of responsibility and knowledge grow. “This is my right as a citizen,” Eissa says. We’ll have messages from El Hadary and Younis tomorrow and Wednesday. (Watch, runtime: 1:09)

On a slow news day for Egypt this morning, wire pickups of the visits to Egypt by SaudiArabia’s foreign minister and Hamas’ Gaza top leadership led coverage of Egypt in the foreign press this morning. All note past tensions with both parties, namely the Aramco cuts from Saudi Arabia, and the cooling of ties with Hamas since 2013 and the latter’s desire to mend relations with the government while denouncing its affiliation with the Muslim Brotherhood.

Tahrir institute for Middle East Policy executive director Nancy Okail says Egypt is in “dire shape,” but she wishes she could go back to it, in a piece in The Washington Post. Okail was sentenced to five years in prison as part of the foreign funding NGO case number 173 in 2013, but has been living in exile in the US since. Okail says Egypt is in “continued deterioration,” but that “opposition is not an end unto itself. We must strive to find solutions to existing problems.”

Egypt may have turned a leaf on its economy thanks to tough reforms taken by the government, writes Nabilah Annuar for CPI Finance. While acknowledging that inflation had reached a multi-decade high, Annuar states that the reforms have led to major foreign inflows and saw reserves rising. Winning over the confidence of multilateral institutions such as the IMF and World bank was crucial for the recovery. The piece concludes by stating that inflation pains will continue for a while, but the economy’s long term outlook remains positive.

Egypt’s farmers, hit hard by global warming, have turned to FAO agriculture schools to learn about better techniques for farming and adapt their methods to changing conditions, Quartz reports. FAO opened 15 schools in Assuit, Aswan, Beni Suef, Fayoum and Sohag, and says its courses have helped farmers in Beni Suef increase their yields by 50%. The schools also teach them about climate change, which is increasing inflicting damage on their crops and driving some to give up the business altogether. Egypt is increasingly being seen as one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change.

Sudanese Foreign Minister Ibrahim Ghandour’s statements glorifying Egypt-Sudan relations swept very real tensions between the two countries under the rug rather than facing them head-on, Emad El Din Hussein writes in a column penned for Al Shorouk. While Ghandour may have intended to minimize the rift, the fact of the matter is that Egypt and Sudan have serious issues they need to work out — without blaming the media. The decision to play the platitude game instead of addressing the root causes of the tensions will only result in the continued deterioration of our ties, Hussein says.

Mahmoud Mohieldin: The Arab world needs to accept the private sector as a partner in creating sustainable development. “Arab countries must move fast to build a more sustainable economy, underpinned by greater private-sector creativity and vitality, improved public services, and the creation of regional and global public goods,” World Bank Group Senior VP and former Egyptian Investment Minister Mahmoud Mohieldin writes in Project Syndicate. Countries in the region need to remedy disparities in access to education, training, and health care and secure funds from international institutions as well as do more to encourage the private sector to invest in sustainable development. Mohieldin says “the ranks of businesses supporting the transition to a sustainable economy are growing. But, to complete that transition, particularly in Arab countries, many more companies and other private-sector entities will need to step up… Now as much as ever, the region has the people, resources, and opportunity to thrive.”

Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry has a busy week: Following his meeting with Saudi’s Foreign Minister, which almost directly preceded the severing of ties with Qatar, Shoukry also met a Hamas delegation led by its recently-minted head honcho in Gaza, Yehia Sinwar, and Deputy Interior Minister Tawfik Abu Naim in Cairo yesterday for talks with Egyptian officials, Ahram Gate reports. The visit will see the two sides chew over the possibly easing the blockade of Gaza, senior Hamas official Salah Al Bardawil said. This is the first high-level meeting between Egypt and the Palestinian group in several months, during which time Hamas has also been trying to mend ties and “convince Egypt that it is a reliable security partner,” the Associated Press notes.

Shoukry’s Diplomacy Ironman Week began with a meeting with Sudanese Foreign Minister Ibrahim Ghandour, who told Al Shorouk in an interview that the two countries will coordinate heading into the Nile Summit scheduled for 22 June in Uganda. The summit is expected to look into the issue of Egypt rejoining the Nile Basin Initiative. Ghandour also denied that the statelet of Qatar had played any role in recent tensions between Egypt and Sudan.

Over in South Sudan, rebel leader Riek Machar called President El Sisi a “close brother” to Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, who Machar’s group accuses of helping arm the South Sudanese government, South Sudan News Agency reports.

Construction of the Daba’a nuclear plant is expected to begin before year-end, Russian ambassador to Cairo Serge V. Kirpichenko said, according to Ahram Gate. On the issue of resuming flights to Egypt, he said the signing of a governmental memorandum to guarantee airport safety is a pending issue. Kirpichenko also noted separately that the joint government committee meetings between Egypt and Russia will possibly resume in Moscow in September, following a Russian proposal.

Also on standby from the Ruskies (who seem to be taking their time on everything) is delivery of Ka-52 attack helicopters, which according to Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin will come “very soon,” RT Arabic reports.

The French Development Agency (AFD) wants to offer EUR 150 mn in technical assistance for electricity and renewable energy projects in Egypt, said Stephanie Lanfranchi, Country Director for Egypt, according to Al Masry Al Youm. Electricity Minister Shaker will reportedly meet with Lanfranchi in mid-June to move talks forward.

The resumption of talks with Chinese firms interested in building the USD 20 bn New Administrative Capital could be a bad sign for local firms, Hossam Abougabal writes for MEED, who argues the Chinese are crowding out local contractors. China Fortune Land Development and China State Construction Engineering could get “preferential treatment,” he writes, adding that authorities need to be transparent.

The country’s incumbent MNOs are in talks with each other and the National Telecommunication Regulatory Authority (NTRA) to redistribute the geographic allocation of mobile network frequencies and ensure that all three can deliver the same quality of service across the country, unnamed executives tell Al Shorouk. MNOs are expecting to receive 4G frequencies this month, once Telecom Egypt finalizes its domestic roaming agreement with Vodafone Egypt.

Egypt will sign an agreement with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) for a EUR 360 mn loan to back an overhaul of Cairo Metro Line 1 within a month, Transport Minister Hisham Arafat tells Al Mal. Line 1 is in need of a nearly EUR 1 bn overhaul, the minister had said last week.

Egypt dropped seven spots to number 40 on car market intelligence firm Focus2Moves’ 2016 ranking of global car markets by sales. The drop came as Egypt’s sales fell 20.8% year-on-year to 217,425 cars in 2016, from 274,389 in 2015. Egypt’s market share of global auto sales also fell to 0.2% in 2016 from 0.3% in 2015. Regional rival Morocco came in 45, jumping from 49 in 2015 on the back of a 24.1% rise in sales.

The Egyptian Agricultural Bank has launched an initiative to provide funding for livestock, Daily News Egypt reports, picking up news from late May in the Arabic press. “We aim to finance the purchasing of [1 mn head of] livestock in addition to milking equipment, refrigerated transport, and the establishment of feed factories,” Chairman El Sayed El Kosayer said. The funding target was not specified, but is part of the initiative to support SMEs by the CBE. The bank was formerly known as the Principal Bank for Development and Agricultural Credit (PBDAC) only came under CBE supervision last November.

The Supreme Media Council is looking to the clarify the legal status of the news websites that were blocked by the government, Al Masry Al Youm reports. The council is in talks with the Interior Ministry to know more about the decision. It is seeking clarification regarding five Egyptian news websites specifically, including Daily News Egypt, Mada Masr, and Masr Alarabia, as it looks to ascertain the legal grounds on which the sites have been intermittently blocked since last week.

The State Lawsuits Authority has requested the Supreme Constitutional Court settle the contradictory rulings issued on the potential handover of Tiran and Sanafir islands to Saudi Arabia, Al Shorouk reports. At issue is a ruling by the Cairo Court for Urgent Matters challenging a previous verdict from the Supreme Administrative Court to block the transfer of the islands. As we had previously noted, the Urgent Matters Court lacks the jurisdiction to overturn a ruling by the Supreme Administrative Court.

A Cairo court sentenced 32 workers from Tourah Portland Cement Company to three years in prison for illegally protesting, Ahram Online reports. The workers held a 55-day sit in on site to protest a decision to lay them off. The court also convicted them of “using force and resisting authorities.”

A former Egyptian army officer is allegedly involved in the Minya terrorist attack, Al Arabiya reports, citing a statement by Libyan army spokesperson Ahmed Al Mesmari. The former officer, identified as Hisham Ashmawy, is said to have served in Sinai for 10 years before being suspended for spreading extremist ideas among his troops. He joined Ansar Bayt Al Maqdis before traveling to Libya in 2013, Al Arabiya says. Ashmawy has long been known as a leading militant figure (see 2015 profile by Reuters).

If this is real, we love the dean of Al Azhar’s faculty of dentistry: Abanoub Guirguis Naeem has reportedly become the first Egyptian Christian to be accepted as a resident at Al Azhar University, according to a report by Egypt Independent. Despite the university spokesman’s best effort to muddy the waters by distinguishing between a resident and a student at the university, Faculty of Dentistry Dean Khalid Seddiq told the newspaper, “I signed and approved his papers, just like the rest of his colleagues. I did not care if he is a Christian or a Muslim. What is really important to me is to know if he is an Egyptian student of good academic standing or not.”