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Thursday, 16 February 2023

Economy back in the spotlight

Economy talk is once again dominating coverage of Egypt in the international press this morning.

Egypt is far from peak inflation, says Shuaa strategist: The impact of the EGP devaluation and the impending reduction of fuel subsidies means that “we are not anywhere close to peak inflation,” Aarthi Chandrasekaran, director of investments at Shuaa Asset Management, told Bloomberg yesterday (watch, runtime: 5:50). Inflation is already running red-hot, with record food prices pushing the headline figure to a new five-year high of 25.8% in January.

A big hike ahead: Chandrasekaran expects the Central Bank of Egypt to raise interest rates by at least 200 bps at its next policy meeting in March after leaving them unchanged earlier this month. She described the decision to maintain rates — which left foreign investors hesitant about returning to Egypt — as a missed chance to hold down inflation.

An FX shortage continues to be a problem: “FX demand is exceeding FX supply and there's a persistent FX overhang in the banking system,” Chandrasekaran said. “And I think we are going to see a downside on rates, on the EGP, and on economic growth.”

OTHER ECONOMY HEADLINES-

  • The Khaleejis are coming: AFP looks at Egypt’s drive to convince Gulf sovereign wealth funds to acquire state-owned companies as it tries to pull itself out of its economic crisis. Oh, and we got a shout out. (AFP)
  • It’s the economists, stupid: The IMF's attempt to push Egypt to reform its economy exposes major flaws in how the Fund designs its economic reform program, argues Timothy E. Kaldas, a policy fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy. (Foreign Policy)

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