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Monday, 30 January 2023

EGX gains, high-yield CDs, and rate hikes on the airwaves

It was another econ-heavy evening on the talk shows last night, with the talking heads cheering a good day for the EGX yesterday; totting up inflows to high-yield CDs ahead of the finish line tomorrow; and looking into their crystal balls to see whether a rate hike is in the cards when central bank policy makers meet on Thursday.

The EGX30’s market cap yesterday surpassed EGP 1.1 tn for the first time, rising 3.7% on turnover of EGP 2.5 bn (43.7% above the 90-day average). The index is now up 19.3% YTD.

Investors are excited about the listing pipeline: The blue-chip index’s strong performance was driven by PM Madbouly on Saturday saying that the government will soon reveal the details of the state-owned firms it plans to offer on the EGX this year, EGX board member Rania Yacoub told Kelma Akhira’s Lamees El Hadidi (watch, runtime: 8:45.) “Egyptian stocks are now becoming the best and cheapest alternative to lure investments by individual investors,” Yacoub said, as opposed to real estate or gold, which are more closely tied to inflation. The devaluation of the EGP and moves to clear the imports backlog have reflected positively on the bourse, Egyptian Capital Market Association (ECMA) chairman Mohamed Maher told Salet El Tahrir (watch, runtime: 5:54)

Savers have so far poured some EGP 460 bn into the record high-yield 25% CDs introduced earlier this month by the National Bank of Egypt (NBE) and Banque Misr, Banque Misr Chairman Mohamed El Etreby told El Hekaya (watch, runtime: 18:15). Some 30% of subscriptions at Banque Misr were fresh deposits, he said. “This reflects confidence by investors or institutions to invest again in treasury bills or the EGP,” he said, while stressing caution over part of the comeback “being hot money.” NBE Deputy Chairman Yehia Aboul Fotouh told Salet El Tahrir that savers invested some EGP 285 bn in CDs at his bank alone, with 50% of the money taken out of other CDs (watch, runtime: 3:47.) Both banks are set to pull the CDs from the market tomorrow.

More rate hike predictions: The CBE will likely raise interest rates by 150-200 basis points in its upcoming meeting on Thursday on the back of surging inflation, Yacoub told El Hadidi (watch, runtime: 1:15.) Ever the contrarian, Ahmed Moussa insisted economists are all forecasting the CBE to keep rates unchanged in its first meeting of the year (watch, runtime: 6:41.) Four of the seven analysts and economists we surveyed in our rate poll see the Monetary Policy Committee raising rates by 100-200 bps later this week.

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