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Monday, 3 October 2022

EM bond funds see massive outflows amid risk-off wave, stronger USD

Emerging-market bond funds have seen a record USD 70 bn of outflows so far this year, with investors pulling USD 4.2 bn in the past week alone, the Financial Times reports citing JPMorgan’s analysis of EPFR Global data. Emerging markets are up against a continuing surge in interest rates in developed markets and a stronger greenback, making investors pull away from funds holding both local and foreign currency bonds. JPMorgan raised its 2022 forecast for EM bond outflows from USD 55 bn to USD 80 bn, and while some analysts see promise in today’s deeply discounted valuations, one JPMorgan strategist tells FT that outflows are expected to continue for the rest of the year amid slowing global growth and trade.

Fertiglobe approves 1H 2022 dividends: Shareholders of MENA fertilizer firm Fertiglobe — a joint venture between Adnoc and the Sawiris-owned OCI — have agreed to pay out USD 750 mn (AED 2.75 bn) in dividends for the first half of 2022, the company said in a statement (pdf) following its general assembly meeting. Dividends of AED 0.33 per share will be distributed later this month to shareholders on record as of 10 October 2022.

US investors are eyeing UK and European assets as prices tumble: A strengthening USD is expected to prop up an ailing US M&A market as investors snap up cheaper assets in the UK and Europe, the Financial Times reports.

Down EGX30 9,687 -1.4% (YTD: -18.9%)
Up USD (CBE) Buy 19.51 Sell 19.59
Up USD at CIB Buy 19.53 Sell 19.59
None Interest rates CBE 11.25% deposit 12.25% lending
Up Tadawul 11,487 +0.7% (YTD: +1.8%)
Down ADX 9,751 -0.7% (YTD: +14.9%)
Up DFM 3,339 +0.7% (YTD: +4.5%)
Down S&P 500 3,586 -1.5% (YTD: -24.8%)
Up FTSE 100 6,894 +0.2% (YTD: -6.7%)
Up Euro Stoxx 50 3,318 +1.2% (YTD: -22.8%)
Down Brent crude USD 85.14 -2.3%
Down Natural gas (Nymex) USD 6.77 -1.6%
Up Gold USD 1,672.00 +0.2%
Down BTC USD 19.187 -0.5% (YTD: -58.7%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 1.4% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 724.08 mn (24% below the 90-day average). Local investors were net buyers. The index is down 18.9% YTD.

In the green: Juhayna (+0.4%), Elsewedy Electric (+0.4%) and e-Finance (+0.3%).

In the red: Madinet Nasr Housing (-4.5%), Rameda (-3.3%) and Palm Hills Development (-3.2%).

Asian markets are firmly in the red in early trading this morning and futures suggest major stock indices on both sides of the Atlantic will open down later on today, Markets are struggling to shake weeks of negative sentiment on the back of global interest rate rises and recession fears.

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