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Wednesday, 27 April 2022

The 2022 IMF + World Bank Spring Meetings have ended: Here are the key takeaways

RECAP — The IMF / World Bank Spring: The war in Ukraine and ensuring food security in developing countries stole most of the attention last week as global financial chiefs descended upon Washington, DC for the IMF / World Bank’s annual Spring Meetings. The general outlook this year was grim as heightened concerns over the fragile state of a global economy suffering from a high inflation climate and a war in Europe took center stage. Here’s our round-up of what drove the headlines during the week.

Global growth downgraded: The main event came on Tuesday, when the IMF released its latest World Economic Outlook. As anticipated, the Fund downgraded its global growth projections for the second time this year, warning that economic activity is in for a “significant slowdown” due to the war in Ukraine. Its economists are now expecting the global economy to grow by 3.6% this year, 0.8 percentage points lower than its January forecast.

There was good news if you’re Egypt, which was spared from the global trend. The IMF upgraded its growth forecast for Egypt, and now expects its economy to expand 5.9% this year, 0.3 percentage point higher than anticipated in January. The revision is the second time the IMF has improved its outlook on Egypt this year.

“The world’s growth engines are now sputtering”: That was the reaction to the report by Allianz Chief Economist and markets sage Mohamed El Erian, who wrote in an op-ed for Project Syndicate that the IMF’s downgrading of its 2023 growth forecast to 3.6% was an indicator that traditional export- and foreign investment-led growth models are losing their effectiveness. Why? Protectionism, latent supply chain issues caused by the pandemic and the general trend towards deglobalization.

The World Bank pledged bns of USD to help countries facing pandemic, food crises: The Bank said it is in talks to provide USD 170 bn in emergency financing over the next 15 months to help vulnerable countries facing “multiple overlapping crises” including the pandemic, soaring inflation, and food and energy insecurity. Details on how the funding will be distributed remain to be seen, but the lender said it hopes to have USD 50 bn to deploy by the end of 2Q 2022.

Calls for the G20 to get serious on debt relief: The IMF urged rich nations to offer debt relief to low-income nations, which have been battered by the pandemic and now soaring food and energy prices. The G20 common framework — an initiative backed last year to help poor countries handle unsustainable debt levels — “has yet to deliver,” the IMF’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, wrote in the Fund’s outlook. “When a country is in a situation where its debt is not sustainable, it is in everyone’s interests to have an expeditious process for debt relief. The common framework is not proving to be quick enough in providing resolutions,” he said.

But the G20 seems to have sat on its hands: The group doesn’t appear to have discussed any concrete mechanisms for moving towards greater debt relief, with a statement following their meeting saying only that it “discussed progress on the implementation of the G20 Common Framework on Debt Treatment, and called for the next steps to be more timely, orderly and predictable.”

One of the world’s most debt-distressed countries made progress towards an IMF loan: Sri Lanka could be closer to receiving an aid package from the IMF and World Bank after “fruitful discussions” during the meetings, the IMF said on Saturday. The Fund is considering offering a USD 500 mn emergency loan while the World Bank will provide USD 10 mn for essential medical purposes, according to Reuters.

But there was no word on Egypt’s prospects for another emergency loan: Egypt was expected to discuss with IMF officials its application for a third programme, with Georgieva saying ahead of the meetings that the Fund would hold talks to discuss the country’s rising debt levels. Neither the Egyptian government nor the IMF have since commented on the status of the talks.

Prepare for further market instability as rates rise: A senior IMF official warned that global financial markets will likely continue to fall as central banks across the world continue to raise interest rates to combat spiraling inflation. Equities, corporate bonds and sovereign debt will likely see a “certain amount of readjustment” going forward as financial conditions tighten, Tobias Adrian, director for monetary and capital markets at the IMF, told CNBC.

There was plenty of talk of assistance for Ukraine: IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgeiva said Wednesday that Ukraine will likely need around USD 15 bn over the next three months to keep it afloat, and that the Fund will hold talks with other countries to provide grant financing. The US said it would give another USD 500 mn to help keep the government functioning, doubling the USD 500 mn pledged in March.

G7 officials didn’t want to hear any Russian during the event, staging walkouts during the G20 session and several IMF meetings in protest at Moscow’s participation following its invasion of Ukraine.

US urges caution on Russia gas ban: US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called on the EU to exercise caution on a full ban of Russian energy to avoid rising energy prices globally and economic hardship in Europe. “Medium-term, Europe clearly needs to reduce its dependence on Russia with respect to energy, but we need to be careful when we think about a complete European ban on say, oil imports,” she said during a presser on Thursday.

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