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Monday, 13 February 2023

More EMs in the devaluation zone + IMF sounds alarm on rising public debt in MENA

Will other emerging markets follow Egypt, Pakistan and Lebanon on the devaluation trail? Analysts now see Argentina, Nigeria, Malawi, Ethiopia and Bangladesh at risk of seeing their currencies tumble on the back of unsustainable debt burdens and FX shortages, Bloomberg reports. “Additional devaluations in some of the fragile frontier markets are very likely,” said Wells Fargo strategist Brendan McKenna. “As external buffers get depleted, their ability to defend pegs diminishes. Investors with exposure to these markets should think about hedging against devaluation risks,” he added.

Devals bring upsides and downsides: While devaluation could help bring in fresh capital and help in trade competitiveness, it could also further fuel inflation and debt repayments, Bloomberg notes. Tellimer strategist Hasnain Malik says investors should be on the lookout for routs in countries at risk. “Currency devaluation makes a number of equity markets in the smaller emerging and frontier universe untouchable,” he said, namechecking Egypt, Argentina, Ghana, Lebanon, Nigeria, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe.

AND- Rising public debt in MENA is concerning the IMF: Public debt in some countries in the MENA region is of “concern,” Reuters quotes IMF head Kristalina Georgieva as saying during the Dubai-hosted Arab Fiscal Forum. “Public debt is a concern, especially in countries that are oil importers and that is an issue we will continue to be working on,” she said, adding that MENA inflation was “far too high still.” She stressed that countries in the region need “robust” fiscal frameworks and more resilience to respond to shocks, noting the impact of the devastation caused by last week’s earthquakes on the Turkish economy..

FINALLY- PIF-backed Chinese fund to raise USD 1 bn: Riyadh-based eWTP Arabia Capital, a venture capital fund backed by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) and China’s Alibaba Group, is close to raising USD 1 bn to back tech startups in Asia and the Middle East, Bloomberg reports. The fund made a USD 400 mn raise in 2019 and has invested in 16 firms, five of which it plans to take public in Riyadh or the US next year.

Down

EGX30

17,287

-1.9% (YTD: +18.4%)

Up

USD (CBE)

Buy 30.48

Sell 30.58

Up

USD at CIB

Buy 30.48

Sell 30.58

None

Interest rates CBE

16.25% deposit

17.25% lending

Up

Tadawul

10,419

+0.1% (YTD: -0.6%)

Up

ADX

10,023

+0.1% (YTD: -1.8%)

Up

DFM

3,454

+0.2% (YTD: +3.5%)

Up

S&P 500

4,090

+0.2% (YTD: +6.5%)

Down

FTSE 100

7,882

-0.4% (YTD: +5.8%)

Down

Euro Stoxx 50

4,198

-1.2% (YTD: +10.7%)

Up

Brent crude

USD 86.39

+2.2%

Up

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.51

+3.5%

Down

Gold

USD 1,874.50

-0.2%

Down

BTC

USD 21,815

-0.1% (YTD: +32.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 1.9% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 1.8 bn (3.6% below the 90-day average). Foreign investors were net sellers. The index is up 18.4% YTD.

In the green: e-finance (+3.2%), Ezz Steel (+3.1%) and Elsewedy Electric (+2.2%).

In the red: CIB (-4.7%), Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (-4.3%) and Mopco (-3.7%).

Asian shares were down in early trading today and futures suggest most of Europe will follow suit, as will Wall Street and Bay Street later today.

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