The odds of a US recession are dwindling, according to Goldman: Goldman Sachs has slashed estimates for the likelihood of a US recession in the next year to 25% on the back of last week’s stronger-than-expected labor data, falling inflation, and signs of improving business sentiment, Bloomberg reports.

The US investment bank remains the outlier: Economists surveyed by Bloomberg last month gave a 65% chance of a recession in the next 12 months.

AND- Surprise Saudi oil price hike: Saudi Aramco has increased the price of its crude for buyers in Asia, the US, and Europe despite declining international prices, Bloomberg reported. The oil giant raised its Arab Light grade USD 2 a barrel above the regional benchmark for Asian buyers and also hiked all prices for European customers by USD 2. Global oil prices have fallen around 7% this year as tightening financial conditions offset rising demand in post-zero-covid China and western sanctions on Russian crude exports.

ALSO WORTH NOTING-

• Chevron’s EastMed footprint could be about to grow: US energy giant Chevron is in talks with Algerian officials to secure an energy exploration agreement with Algeria, which has larger shale gas reserves than the US. (WSJ)
• Companies could soon cross list on the Saudi, Hong Kong stock exchanges: The Saudi and Hong Kong stock exchanges will explore cross listings as well as cooperation on fintech and ESG under an MoU signed yesterday. This came during a visit to Riyadh by Hong Kong leader John Lee, who is trying to persuade Saudi Aramco to list on the Hong Kong exchange. (Statement)
• Investors aren’t impressed by blowout oil + gas earnings: The world’s largest oil companies made more than USD 132 bn in profits and paid out USD 78 bn in dividends and share buybacks last year. But many investors are giving the industry a wide berth due to concerns about long-term profitability and greenhouse gas emissions. (WSJ)

	EGX30	16,587	+2.0% (YTD: +13.6%)
	USD (CBE)	Buy 30.26	Sell 30.35
	USD at CIB	Buy 30.25	Sell 30.35
	Interest rates CBE	16.25% deposit	17.25% lending
	Tadawul	10,556	0.0% (YTD: +0.7%)
	ADX	10,002	+0.7% (YTD: -2.1%)
	DFM	3,400	+0.5% (YTD: +1.9%)
	S&P 500	4,111	-0.6% (YTD: +7.1%)
	FTSE 100	7,837	-0.8% (YTD: +5.2%)
	Euro Stoxx 50	4,205	-1.2% (YTD: +10.9%)
	Brent crude	USD 81.26	+1.7%
	Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.48	+3.0%
	Gold	USD 1,880.30	+0.2%
	BTC	USD 22,928	+0.2% (YTD: +39.1%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 2.0% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 1.6 bn (12% below the 90-day average). Regional investors were net buyers. The index is up 13.6% YTD.

In the green: Telecom Egypt (+6.2%), e-finance (+5.9%) and Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (+5.4%).

In the red: Abu Qir Fertilizers (-1.9%), Credit Agricole (-1.1%) and EFG Hermes (-1.0%).

Asian markets are seeing gains in trading this morning, while shares in Europe and the US are expected to follow suit later today.