US job growth signals further Fed rate tightening ahead: Interest-rate futures traders priced in further rate 25 bps hikes in March and May in light of strong jobs figures in January, Reuters reports. The US job market grew sharply last month with the addition of more than 500k jobs prompting a drop in the unemployment rate to 3.4%, the lowest in more than half a century. The Federal Reserve moved last week to hike rates by 25 bps to a target range of 4.5-4.75%.

The prospect of more tightening triggered a sell-off in the markets: Stocks, bonds, gold, oil and crypto all fell on Friday while the USD strengthened as markets reacted to the prospect of rates moving higher than expected in the coming weeks.

Bad week for oil: Brent futures fell almost 8% during the week, including a 3.0% slide on Friday, to its lowest level since 11 January. US crude also fell 8% during the five-day period to its weakest since 5 January.

Investors are worrying less about EM defaults: The cost of financial products that protect investors against sovereign default in emerging markets fell to the lowest in almost a year on the back of the weakening greenback and hopes that slowing US rate hikes will give developing countries more breathing room, Bloomberg reports. An IHS Markit index that tracks credit default swaps linked to 18 EM sovereigns fell to 211 bps on Friday — the lowest level since Russia invaded Ukraine last February.

Egyptian CDS have fallen back but remain elevated: The cost of insuring against default on Egypt’s one-year t-bills is currently around 500 bps, down significantly from the peak of almost 1,800 last July but still up significantly from lows in 2021.

ALSO WORTH NOTING

• Global food prices continue to fall in January: Global food prices fell for the 10th consecutive month in January, according to the UN food price index, which fell 0.8% m-o-m to 131.2 points, 18% below its peak last March. (FAO)
• Deutsche Bank reports bumper 2022 earnings: Germany’s largest lender reported net income of EUR 5.7 bn in 2022 — its highest since 2007, according to its earnings release (pdf). In the fourth quarter, the bank reported EUR 1.8 bn in net profit attributable to shareholders — almost double analysts’ expectations — though shares fell 2.4% due to weaker investment bank revenues and uncertainty over the economic outlook.
• Everything’s under control, India’s market regulator tells investors following Adani wipeout: India's market regulator moved to ease investors’ concerns yesterday following last week’s rout of Adani Group firms which have lost more than USD 100 bn of market value. (Statement)

	EGX30	16,256	-0.9% (YTD: +11.4%)
	USD (CBE)	Buy 30.22	Sell 30.31
	USD at CIB	Buy 30.23	Sell 30.33
	Interest rates CBE	16.25% deposit	17.25% lending
	Tadawul	10,702	-0.8% (YTD: +2.1%)
	ADX	9,931	+0.7% (YTD: -2.7%)
	DFM	3,383	+0.5% (YTD: +1.4%)
	S&P 500	4,136	-1.0% (YTD: +7.7%)
	FTSE 100	7,902	+1.0% (YTD: +6.0%)
	Euro Stoxx 50	4,258	+0.4% (YTD: +12.2%)
	Brent crude	USD 79.94	-2.7%
	Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.41	-1.9%
	Gold	USD 1,876.60	-2.8%
	BTC	USD 23,420	+0.2% (YTD: +41,7%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.9% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 1.87 bn (4.2% above the 90-day average). Foreign investors were net sellers. The index is up 11.4% YTD.

In the green: Edita Food Industries (+11.0%), Juhayna (+2.7%) and Credit Agricole Egypt (+1.2%).

In the red: Oriental Weavers (-8.6%), GB Auto (-6.5%) and Elsewedy Electric (-6.0%).