New European sanctions are about to hit Russian oil products — but expect major re-routing rather than major re-pricing on diesel: After banning shipments on seaborne Russian crude in December, the EU a will ratchet up the pressure on Moscow from 5 February with a ban on refined Russian fuel imports — key among them diesel. But market-watchers aren’t overly worried about the potential for price spikes on the back of the move, with most analysts telling Bloomberg that global diesel flows will be re-routed following some initial disruption. “The market is pricing in less panic as markets and trade flows have proven resilient,” Keshav Lohiya, founder of consultant Oilytics, told the business newswire. “This will be a new rerouting of diesel.”

Same diesel, new route: Russia could sell some of the 600k barrels per day it once supplied to the EU to countries in Africa, Latin America, and Asia, while Europe is expected to up flows from the Middle East, the US, and India. But with no rules against third-party countries buying Russian crude and refining it to sell on to Europe, much of the Russian fuel that the EU is refusing to buy could end up eventually finding its way to the bloc anyway — with the additional miles traveled only adding to the cost and environmental impact.

Cooling US inflation won’t be enough to avoid a recession: The Wall Street Journal is out with a fresh survey of economists predicting a recession this year, denting hopes spurred by cooler recent US inflation data that the US Federal Reserve could manage a so-called “soft landing” and avoid an economic downturn. Economists surveyed put the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months at 61% on average, only a marginal drop from 63% in October’s survey. Three-quarters of respondents stated that they do not think a soft landing will be possible this year, though most think the coming recession will be shallow. The US Fed has indicated that it will look to slow the pace of rate rises this year after a series of jumbo 75-basis-point hikes in 2022.

ALSO WORTH NOTING-

• The latest from the crypto winter: Crypto exchange Crypto.com shed 20% of its global workforce as the industry continues to feel the effects of risk-off sentiment and the implosion of FTX. (Statement)
• Russia’s revenues from fertilizer exports jumped 70% y-o-y to USD 16.7 bn in 10M 2022 on the back of elevated prices due to the war, despite a 10% decline in sales volumes. (Financial Times)
• Twitter is trying to lure back advertisers who paused their campaigns on the platform amid erratic management moves by new CEO Elon Musk. The company is offering to match ad spends of up to USD 250k. (Wall Street Journal)

	EGX30	15,561	+0.1% (YTD: +6.6%)
	USD (CBE)	Buy 29.56	Sell 29.65
	USD at CIB	Buy 29.51	Sell 29.61
	Interest rates CBE	16.25% deposit	17.25% lending
	Tadawul	10,727	-0.2% (YTD: +2.4%)
	ADX	10,211	+0.6% (YTD: 0.0%)
	DFM	3,324	+0.3% (YTD: -0.4%)
	S&P 500	3,999	+0.4% (YTD: +4.2%)
	FTSE 100	7,844	+0.6% (YTD: +5.3%)
	Euro Stoxx 50	4,151	+0.6% (YTD: +9.4%)
	Brent crude	USD 85.28	+1.5%
	Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.42	-7.5%
	Gold	USD 1,921.70	+1.2%
	BTC	USD 20,922	+0.1% (YTD: +26.4%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 0.1% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 1.75 bn (4.2% above the 90-day average). Local investors were net sellers. The index is up 6.6% YTD.

In the green: Juhayna (+7.3%), Elsewedy Electric (+5.3%) and Alexandria Containers and Cargo Handling (+3.4%).

In the red: Talaat Moustafa Group (-2.3%), EFG Hermes (-1.9%) and AMOC (-1.8%).

Asian markets are largely up in early trading this morning and futures suggest major European and Wall Street indices will also open in the green later on today, as equities ride a wave of optimism on the cooler inflation data out of the US.