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Monday, 9 January 2023

Ringing in the new year with a bond binge + EM bulls are waiting for a Fed reversal

Does 2023 bode a comeback for bonds? Global borrowers issued USD 150 bn worth of fresh bonds in just four days at the start of January — suggesting newfound optimism in the bond markets after they recorded a 16.3% loss last year, Bloomberg writes. Hong Kong made its biggest ever green bond issuance at USD 5.8 bn, Mexico sold USD 4 bn in bonds, and USD 53 bn was sold in 48 hours in a “bond-sale binge” in the US corporate market. With markets set to remain volatile as the year progresses, analysts expect to continue to see big swings in market liquidity as borrowers rush to raise finance on days where the chances of any surprises coming to spook investors seem lower.

EM bulls are waiting for a sign from the Fed: Key emerging-market equities, currencies, and bonds indices continued to rise last week as some investors anticipate a broad rally in EM assets in 2023, Bloomberg reports. Chances are good in 2023 for a recovery in the Chinese economy that could spur a broader boom in EM assets, the business newswire says — but much will depend on if and when the US Federal Reserve will turn the tide on a tightening cycle that has brought economic pain for many EMs. Bulls will need patience and a “tactical and selective” approach if they want to ride out short-term volatility, one EM economist at Wells Fargo Securities tells the newswire.

Mubadala + Alpha Dhabi latest to enter the private credit space: Abu Dhabi wealth fund Mubadala and Alpha Dhabi Holding, one of the UAE’s biggest companies, have formed a joint venture that will lend some USD 2..5 bn in private credit over the next five years, according to a joint statement. Mubadala will “leverage its partnership” with private equity giant Apollo to find borrowers for the platform, in which Mubadala will own 80% and Alpha Dhabi 20%.

REFRESHER- The global market share for private credit funds is increasing as they eat into banks’ market share amid an high interest rate environment. Our friends at Chimera Capital in November entered private credit with the launch of their USD 2 bn global fund with US alternative asset manager Alpha Wave Global.

ALSO WORTH NOTING-

  • First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) had been looking into a potential acquisition of London-based lender Standard Chartered before changing its mind during the “very early stages” of evaluations. FAB is looking to build an emerging markets bank and last year offered to acquire our friends at EFG Hermes before scrapping its bid. (ADX disclosure, pdf)
  • Ant Group founder Jack Ma is ceding control of the Chinese fintech giant as part of a major restructuring in the wake of a regulatory crackdown on the company by Beiijing. (Statement | Reuters)
EGX30 16,002 +2.9% (YTD: +9.6%)
Up USD (CBE) Buy 27.01 Sell 27.11
Up USD at CIB Buy 27.10 Sell 27.20
None Interest rates CBE 16.25% deposit 17.25% lending
Up Tadawul 10,537 +0.1% (YTD: +0.6%)
Down ADX 10,198 -0.5% (YTD: -0.1%)
Down DFM 3,302 -0.4% (YTD: -1.0%)
Up S&P 500 3,896 +2.3% (YTD: +1.5%)
Up FTSE 100 7,699 +0.9% (YTD: +3.3%)
Up Euro Stoxx 50 4,018 +1.5% (YTD: +5.9%)
Up Brent crude USD 78.80 +0.3%
Up Natural gas (Nymex) USD 3.82 +3.0%
Up Gold USD 1,872.00 +0.1%
Up BTC USD 17,051 +0.6% (YTD: +3.2%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 2.9% at last Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 3.12 bn (97.3% above the 90-day average). Regional investors were net buyers. The index is up 9.6% YTD.

In the green: Eastern Company (+14.3%), Fawry (+8.0%) and Credit Agricole Egypt (+8.0%).

In the red: Ezz Steel (-3.5%), Cleopatra Hospitals (-3.4%) and Rameda Pharma (-3.1%).

Enterprise is a daily publication of Enterprise Ventures LLC, an Egyptian limited liability company (commercial register 83594), and a subsidiary of Inktank Communications. Summaries are intended for guidance only and are provided on an as-is basis; kindly refer to the source article in its original language prior to undertaking any action. Neither Enterprise Ventures nor its staff assume any responsibility or liability for the accuracy of the information contained in this publication, whether in the form of summaries or analysis. © 2022 Enterprise Ventures LLC.

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