Good morning, ladies and gents: We have a packed issue for you this morning so let’s jump right in.

HAPPENING TODAY-

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi is in Washington for the three-day US-Africa Leaders’ Summit, which starts today. The event will be the first meeting of African heads of state and a US president in Washington since 2014 and the biggest international gathering in the city since before the covid-19 pandemic in 2020.

On the agenda: Russia’s war in Ukraine, climate change, trade and covid-19 among other things, according to the Associated Press. President Joe Biden will address a US-Africa business meeting, hold meetings with individual African heads of state and host a dinner at the White House. Al Masry Al Youm reported yesterday that US officials intend to discuss the disputed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). It is unknown whether El Sisi will hold talks with the US president or meet with Ethiopian President Sahle-Work Zewde during his stay in the US capital.

A play for Africa: As Russia and China strengthen their ties with the continent, the summit is part of the US’ play to increase its influence among African leaders following four years of disengagement under Donald Trump. The administration will offer a sweetener and declare support for making the African Union a permanent member of the G20, a long-standing ambition of African nations that the Washington Post suggests could help the US get them on side on issues such as the war in Ukraine and climate change.

The Federal Reserve starts its two-day policy meeting: Several months of positive inflation data have raised market expectations that the Fed will temper the pace of interest rate increases with a 50-bps hike this week. This would bring to an end a string of four consecutive 75-bps hikes in what has been the central bank’s most aggressive tightening cycle in years.

A lot will depend on today’s inflation release: Analysts expect inflation to have further slowed in November to 7.3%, allowing the Fed to ease the pace of its rate hikes. That said, a hotter-than-expected print could see the central bank go ahead with yet another super-sized hike.

** The Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision at the end of the meeting tomorrow evening.

On the legislative agenda today:

• Unified Tax Procedures Law amendments: The House Budget Committee will discuss and vote on a controversial one-article amendment to the Unified Tax Procedures Law that would allow foreign tax authorities to access individuals and businesses’ financial information.
• Digital Egypt bill: The Senate is expected to give a final approval to legislation that would set up a fund to support the Communications Ministry’s Digital Egypt initiative.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

Will we finally close an IMF facility this week? The IMF’s executive board will discuss Egypt’s request for a new extended fund facility on Friday, 16 December. Egypt and the Fund reached a staff-level agreement for a USD 3 bn, 46-month loan program at the end of October, but the arrangement needs the sign off from the board before the loan can start to be disbursed.

Another analyst has forecast a surprise interest rate hike before the IMF meets: BNP Paribas’ MENA economist, Mohamed Abdelmeguid, is the latest analyst to predict an unscheduled central bank policy meeting this week, writing in a note that policymakers could raise rates by 200 bps before the IMF board meets. The bank says that the CBE will likely need to “move more decisively toward a floating currency framework” before the IMF agrees to disburse the first USD 750 mn tranche but warns that a further devaluation “would fail to stabilize the market.”

Others have predicted something similar: Al Ahly Pharos expects the central bank to meet before its scheduled meeting on 22 December and raise rates by 200 bps. This would put the overnight deposit rate at 15.25% and the lending rate at 16.25%.

What’s next for the EGP + consumer prices? Abdelmeguid expects the EGP / USD exchange rate to fall to 33 by the end of the year and 37 during 1Q 2023. This will push urban inflation past 25% during the next quarter and leave it averaging 22% through 2023. Inflation rose to 18.7% in November, its highest level in almost five years.

PSA- Three days until the e-invoicing deadline: Companies have until Thursday to register with the Tax Authority’s e-invoicing system. Only 150k companies had signed up to the new system ahead of the previous deadline of 15 December, according to the Tax Authority’s most recent tally at the end of November, which is well below a sought goal of 1 mn companies to register under the system.

REMEMBER- This deadline no longer applies to the self-employed: The Finance Ministry pushed the deadline for self-employed professionals — including doctors, pharmacists and lawyers — to 30 April 2023 after widespread opposition to the system.

WORLD CUP 2022-

All eyes on Argentina v Croatia tonight: The semi-finals of the 2022 World Cup are finally here, with Argentina going head-to-head against Croatia at 9pm tonight for a place in the final. The stakes are high for Lionel Messi, for whom this is likely the last opportunity to win the World Cup. The Argentines are the stronger team on paper — even if they have struggled to fire this tournament — though Croatia should not be underestimated. They are bidding to make their second consecutive World Cup final (having lost 4-2 to France in 2018), and knocked out tournament favorites Brazil in the last round.

THE BIG STORIES ABROAD-

SBF is in cuffs: Sam Bankman-Fried, the embattled co-founder and ex-CEO of collapsed crypto exchange FTX, has been arrested in the Bahamas after the US government filed criminal charges, a day before he was due to testify before Congress. Speculation that the company had misused client funds has swirled since it abruptly fell into bankruptcy last month. The New York Times is reporting that the criminal charges include wire fraud, wire fraud conspiracy, securities fraud, securities fraud conspiracy and money laundering. SBF, the biggest name in the crypto industry until a few weeks ago, could now be extradited to the US to face criminal proceedings.

The news is dominating the front pages everywhere this morning, including in Reuters, the Associated Press, Bloomberg and the Financial Times.

EU-Qatar bribery scandal widens: Belgian police yesterday seized at least EUR 750k in cash amid ongoing raids in relation to a probe into alleged bribery involving European lawmakers and Qatar, Bloomberg reported. Greek MEP and Parliament Vice President Eva Kaili is among six people to have been arrested and a number of parliamentary offices and residences have been raided as authorities investigate claims that European lawmakers took bribes from Qatari officials.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Enactus Egypt and the Citi Foundation launched the second phase of social entrepreneurship program Impact@Work, according to a press release (pdf). Some 54 university teams representing 9.7k students from various governorates will participate in the competition in July 2023 to demonstrate their efforts in generating a social impact based on their entrepreneurial ideas. The winning team will compete in the Enactus World Cup in the Netherlands in October 2023.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

*** It’s Going Green day — your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt: Enterprise’s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.

In today’s issue: Egypt’s renewable energy capacity is on track to grow 65% by 2027, according to the International Energy Agency.