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Wednesday, 7 December 2022

THIS MORNING: The IMF executive board finally has Egypt on its schedule

Good morning, wonderful people. We hope you’re all looking forward to a beautiful day.

We start this morning by thanking the 300 of you who joined us yesterday morning for our first ever Enterprise Climate X Forum at the Grand Egyptian Museum. Together, we took a deep dive into the fundamentals of what we think is the world’s largest and most important industry. (And big thanks to everyone for having shown up on time — there’s a reason Enterprise is a breakfast brand…)

We’re exceptionally grateful to our friends at USAID, HSBC, Mashreq, Attijariwafa Bank, Etisalat by e&, Hassan Allam Utilities, and Infinity for having made yesterday possible.

We also owe enormous thanks to the team at the GEM and the GEM Authority for having trusted us to be the first business conference at the new museum. It is simply a spectacular facility and we look forward to doing more events there in the future.

More events? Yes. Yesterday was just the first of our planned series of Enterprise X Forums, at which we’ll take deep dives into the industries and ideas that are driving opportunities for our community. Stay tuned.

COVERAGE- Enterprise Climate has the rundown this morning on our climate finance panel and we have a recap below of what three industry leaders had to say about renewables, green hydrogen and EVs. Look for more in both EnterpriseAM and Enterprise Climate in the days ahead.


The IMF’s board has finally put us on its schedule: The IMF’s executive board will discuss Egypt’s request for a new extended fund facility next Friday, 16 December, according to its calendar. It’s unclear whether the board will make a decision on whether to approve the USD 3 bn, 46-month facility during the meeting. Egypt and the Fund reached a staff-level agreement for a new loan program at the end of October.

REFRESHER- Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said earlier this week that we could receive the first USD 750 mn tranche of the bailout loan before the end of the year. The 46-month loan agreement, which was announced in tandem with October’s EGP devaluation, is part of a series of measures to help shore up our economy amid the fallout of the war in Ukraine.

DATA POINT- Egypt’s foreign reserves continued to edge up in November, rising to USD 33.5 bn from USD 33.4 bn a month earlier, according to central bank data released yesterday. Reserves have risen by almost USD 400 mn since August, a reversal after falling 20% earlier in the year on the back of the war in Ukraine and tightening financial conditions globally.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

We’ll find out tomorrow how the latest EGP devaluation impacted consumer prices in November when the central bank and CAPMAS publish the latest inflation data. A poll of analysts conducted by Reuters sees annual urban inflation rising to 18.75% from 16.20% in October, which would be the highest level in almost five years. The survey also sees core inflation reaching 21.60% in November — its highest since November 2017 — up from 19% the month prior. The EGP has tumbled 24.8% since 27 October, when the central bank said it was moving to a flexible exchange rate, opening the door to a new wave of imported inflation.

HAPPENING NEXT WEEK-

Unlicensed shops are going to have to start thinking seriously about going legit from next Sunday when a long-awaited law regulating shops goes into effect. The date was revealed yesterday by Local Development Minister Hesham Amna, who said that the government will begin implementing the law from 11 December. The bill, passed by the House in 2019, will require shops to acquire licenses, introduce a new inspection regime, and specify ins. requirements as part of efforts to formalize the largely informal retail sector. According to one estimate, some 80-90% of stores are currently unlicensed. Owners of unlicensed shops will have one year to apply for a commercial license.


Gov’t could intervene to solve poultry market snarl: The government could intervene to protect the poultry industry from soaring feed prices, Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said during a meeting with industry figures yesterday. Madbouly did not provide details on what action could be taken to help bring prices of feed under control, yet stressed that the government “would not allow the persistence of such conditions. … We will not allow instability in poultry production,” he said.

REMEMBER- A feed shortage on the back of import restrictions has sent prices of poultry and eggs skyrocketing, with the government trying to address the shortage by releasing thousands of tons of poultry feed from ports since mid-October. Agriculture Minister El Sayed El Quseir said yesterday that 960k tons of feed have been released from ports since mid-October, though this appears to have done little to calm prices.

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WORLD CUP-

It was all cheers from the Arab world (and us) yesterday, as Morocco sealed a historic win against Spain to become the first Arab team ever to qualify for the World Cup quarter-finals. After playing out a tense 0-0 draw with the Spaniards, the Atlas Lions triumphed in an easy shoot out that saw Spain miss all three of their penalties and Morocco’s star full-back Achraf Hakimi seal victory with a cheeky Panenka.

Morocco will have a tougher time getting past Portugal in the next round, who thrashed Switzerland 6-1. All the pre-game talk centered on Fernando Santos’ decision to drop Ronaldo, who saw his inexperienced replacement, the 21-year-old Goncalo Ramos, bag the first hat trick of the competition as the Portuguese swatted aside a lackluster Switzerland.

We now have two football-less days ahead of us before the quarter-finals get underway. Here’s how they line up (all times CLT):

  • Croatia v Brazil (Friday, 5pm)
  • Netherlands v Argentina (Friday, 9pm)
  • Morocco v Portugal (Saturday, 5pm)
  • England v France (Saturday, 9pm)

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Just what Trump doesn’t want as he gears up for his 2024 presidential run: The Trump Organization was convicted yesterday of a 15-year scheme to defraud tax authorities, with the family real estate company facing fines of up to USD 1.6 mn following the guilty verdicts that followed two days of jury deliberations in New York. Trump wasn’t personally charged with any offenses.

The verdict is dominating the international press this morning: AP | Reuters | FT | CNBC | CNN| BBC.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Key news triggers to keep an eye on this week and beyond:

  • Inflation: Inflation data for November will land on Thursday, 8 December.
  • Interest rates: The Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday, 22 December to review interest rates.

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi is in Riyadh later this week to attend the China-Arab summit that will coincide with Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to the kingdom. Some 12-14 Arab leaders are expected to attend the summit on Friday.

The cabinet’s Information and Decision Support Center (IDSC) will kick off the first session of its new intellectual forum on Thursday, 8 December, according to a statement. The weekly forum will see experts including government officials, academics, representatives of multilateral institutions, MPs, and national dialogue members meet to discuss key policy questions and make recommendations on them to the prime minister.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

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*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: Enterprise’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education.

In today’s issue: We talked to the head of the Finance Ministry’s PPP Unit, Atter Hannoura, about the government’s plans for public-private partnerships going forward.

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