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Sunday, 20 November 2022

There’s little chance of an Egypt default, according to Bloomberg analysis

Egypt isn’t at high risk of sovereign default, according to Bloomberg: The likelihood of Egypt defaulting on its public debt over the next twelve months is lower than 10%, according to Bloomberg analysis of default risk in 41 emerging economies. Eleven emerging countries have a higher than 10% chance of default, according to the analysis, which looked at risks to EM debt repayment amid a high-rate, high-inflation global environment. Smaller EMs with high debt burdens are facing the brunt of tighter conditions, with Ukraine, Belize, Argentina, and Ecuador among the most at-risk.

Huge demand for Taaleem IPO: UAE school operator Taaleem Holdings’ IPO was 18x oversubscribed last week after receiving AED 13.7 bn (USD 3.7 bn) in orders, it said in a statement (pdf) Friday. The company raised AED 750 mn after selling 250 mn shares at AED 3 apiece, the top end of the price range. Shares are set to start trading in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday, 29 November. Our friends at EFG-Hermes are joint lead managers for the offering, alongside Emirates NBD Capital.

Is the FTX fiasco worse than Enron? That seems to be the conclusion of John Ray III, the guy who managed Enron’s bankruptcy and has just been appointed to do the same with the collapsed crypto exchange. “Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here,” he wrote in a damning bankruptcy filing.

Also worth noting:

  • Theranos CEO Elizabeth Holmes handed 11-year prison sentence: A federal court sentenced the founder and CEO of the blood diagnostics startup on Friday for defrauding Theranos’ investors. Holmes is expected to appeal the sentence. (Reuters)
  • The cost of deglobalization: The IMF thinks the rise of protectionism seen this year could cause a USD 1.4 tn hit to the global economy. (Bloomberg)
Up EGX30 12,516 +1.4% (YTD: +4.7%)
Down USD (CBE) Buy 24.44 Sell 24.52
Up USD at CIB Buy 24.46 Sell 24.52
None Interest rates CBE 13.25% deposit 14.25% lending
Down Tadawul 11,142 -0.1% (YTD: -1.2%)
Up ADX 10,466 +0.4% (YTD: +23.3%)
Up DFM 3,352 +0.6% (YTD: +4.9%)
Up S&P 500 3,965 +0.5% (YTD: -16.8%)
Up FTSE 100 7,386 +0.5% (YTD: 0.0%)
Up Euro Stoxx 50 3,924 +1.2% (YTD: -8.7%)
Down Brent crude USD 87.62 -2.4%
Down Natural gas (Nymex) USD 6.30 -1.0%
Down Gold USD 1,769.00 -0.5%
Up BTC USD 16,655 +0.1% (YTD: -64.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 1.4% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 2.14 bn (45.9% above the 90-day average). Regional investors were net buyers. The index is up 4.7% YTD.

In the green: Eastern Company (+7.4%), Palm Hills Development (+5.2%) and CIB (+3.3%).

In the red: Ezz Steel (-2.3%), Madinet Nasr Housing (-2.0%) and Cleopatra Hospitals (-1.5%).

Enterprise is a daily publication of Enterprise Ventures LLC, an Egyptian limited liability company (commercial register 83594), and a subsidiary of Inktank Communications. Summaries are intended for guidance only and are provided on an as-is basis; kindly refer to the source article in its original language prior to undertaking any action. Neither Enterprise Ventures nor its staff assume any responsibility or liability for the accuracy of the information contained in this publication, whether in the form of summaries or analysis. © 2022 Enterprise Ventures LLC.

Enterprise is available without charge thanks to the generous support of HSBC Egypt (tax ID: 204-901-715), the leading corporate and retail lender in Egypt; EFG Hermes (tax ID: 200-178-385), the leading financial services corporation in frontier emerging markets; SODIC (tax ID: 212-168-002), a leading Egyptian real estate developer; SomaBay (tax ID: 204-903-300), our Red Sea holiday partner; Infinity (tax ID: 474-939-359), the ultimate way to power cities, industries, and homes directly from nature right here in Egypt; CIRA (tax ID: 200-069-608), the leading providers of K-12 and higher level education in Egypt; Orascom Construction (tax ID: 229-988-806), the leading construction and engineering company building infrastructure in Egypt and abroad; Moharram & Partners (tax ID: 616-112-459), the leading public policy and government affairs partner; Palm Hills Developments (tax ID: 432-737-014), a leading developer of commercial and residential properties; Mashreq (tax ID: 204-898-862), the MENA region’s leading homegrown personal and digital bank; and Industrial Development Group (IDG) (tax ID:266-965-253), the leading builder of industrial parks in Egypt.