We’re going to have to make some changes to our food systems in the coming decades if we’re looking to sustainably feed a growing population: Crop yield is now higher than it has ever been in human history, thanks to technological advancements that have given a major boost to crop productivity and introduced new varieties of plants to our agricultural arsenal. The problem is that a lot of these same techniques have also been highly damaging to our natural ecosystems. To reasonably feed an expanding global population — which is expected to grow over 30% before the end of the century — our food systems will soon need to be reconfigured.

You’ve probably heard this before, but modern food systems and agriculture are notoriously destructive. Rainforests are cleared to make way for cow pastures; greenhouse gasses are emitted in order to cultivate, store, and transport food; and biodiversity has come under increasing pressure since the advent of modern agricultural techniques.

Since the 1960s, food production has been outpacing population growth: Every year since 1961 food production has sat well above population growth and most countries around the world are technically self-sufficient, meaning that they are able to locally produce enough calories for basic dietary requirements outlined by the FAO.

But at the same time, the world has actually been backsliding on combating global hunger in recent years. In 2021, some 767.9 mn people were undernourished, the highest that figure has ever been since 2006. Global hunger has more or less been falling every year between 2002 – 2017. Since then, malnutrition has actually been rising from about 573.3 mn in 2017 to 767.9 mn people in 2021. Considering that there will be 2.5 bn more mouths to feed by the end of the century, these figures are increasingly alarming.

That’s because most of these production gains have been heavily concentrated in high income countries: Since 1961, high-income countries have been able to reliably produce about 2.8k kcal per person per day — 300 kcals above that FAO’s 2.5k threshold for self-sufficiency, according

For the rest of the world self-sufficiency didn’t come until much later (or at all): For upper middle income countries crossing that 2.5k kcal threshold didn’t happen until 1979. Lower-middle income countries saw their turning point in self-sufficiency in 2006, while for low-income countries, self-sufficiency has yet to be reached.

Here in Egypt, food security (and self-sufficiency) is a significant concern: Egypt faces a moderate level of hunger, ranking 61 of 117 countries, according to the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP). “Food affordability, quality and safety remain challenges as Egypt continues to rely on global markets for more than half of its staples,” the WFP says.

To feed a growing population, cutting down food waste needs to be made a priority: Globally, a third of all food produced goes to waste, according to the FAO’s Global Food Losses and Food Waste report (pdf). In rich countries, food waste mostly comes from households, while in developing countries production and distribution problems are the biggest contributors. In North America and Oceania consumption-related food waste makes up over half of the total food waste in the two regions. By contrast, in the Middle East and North Africa, consumption-related waste only makes up about a third of losses. In Sub-saharan Africa and South and Southeast Asia, that percentage is even lower.

Our diets will need to change as well: Cutting out beef and dairy products from diets would be the single biggest change consumers can make to scale back agricultural land usage. Cutting out beef or mutton alone would slash our global land usage by almost 50%. Add dairy to the equation and we could be looking at a 73% reduction of land usage from current levels. This would also have the added benefit of driving down greenhouse gas emissions caused by maintaining, storing and transporting beef.

And yes, it’s beef above all else that is the key here: Beef alone is by far the most damaging food for the environment, emitting almost 40 kg of CO2 for every 1000 kcal produced. Compare that to the second highest contributor, lamb and mutton — which are responsible for only about 13 kg of CO2 for every 1000 kcal produced or poultry (5 kg of CO2) — and you get the picture.